Try this Method...for 2 years ~75% accurate

[Armando]

Here's the code written in TradeStation. It actually starts at Midnight and ends at 11AM. I used a 10 pip profit target and a 13 pip stop. Optimization shows you can get a little better profit, maybe 12 pips. Overall though, it whipsaws a lot. I've included a shot of a EURO chart with the strategy running.
RESULT: Total Number of Trades 687 337 350
Percent Profitable 58.22% 56.08% 60.29%



All Trades
Long Trades
Short Trades

Total Net Profit $4,460.00 $670.00 $3,790.00
Gross Profit $40,280.00 $18,960.00 $21,320.00
Gross Loss ($35,820.00) ($18,290.00) ($17,530.00)
Profit Factor 1.12 1.04 1.22

Open Position P/L $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Select Total Net Profit $4,870.00 $870.00 $4,000.00
Select Gross Profit $39,820.00 $18,820.00 $21,000.00
Select Gross Loss ($34,950.00) ($17,950.00) ($17,000.00)
Select Profit Factor 1.14 1.05 1.24

Adjusted Total Net Profit $331.61 ($2,212.57) $835.40
Adjusted Gross Profit $38,266.00 $17,580.86 $19,852.27
Adjusted Gross Loss ($37,934.39) ($19,793.43) ($19,016.88)
Adjusted Profit Factor 1.01 0.89 1.04

Total Number of Trades 687 337 350
Percent Profitable 58.22% 56.08% 60.29%
Winning Trades 400 189 211
Losing Trades 287 148 139
Even Trades 0 0 0

Avg. Trade Net Profit $6.49 $1.99 $10.83
Avg. Winning Trade $100.70 $100.32 $101.04
Avg. Losing Trade ($124.81) ($123.58) ($126.12)
Ratio Avg. Winning:Avg. Losing 0.81 0.81 0.80
Largest Winning Trade $320.00 $140.00 $320.00
Largest Losing Trade ($530.00) ($340.00) ($530.00)
Largest Winner as % of Gross Profit 0.79% 0.74% 1.50%
Largest Loser as % of Gross Loss 1.48% 1.86% 3.02%

Net Profit as % of Largest Loss 841.51% 197.06% 715.09%
Select Net Profit as % of Largest Loss 918.87% 255.88% 754.72%
Adjusted Net Profit as % of Largest Loss 62.57% (650.75%) 157.62%

Max. Consecutive Winning Trades 10 7 10
Max. Consecutive Losing Trades 7 5 5
Avg. Bars in Total Trades 2.71 2.70 2.73
Avg. Bars in Winning Trades 2.63 2.64 2.63
Avg. Bars in Losing Trades 2.83 2.78 2.88
Avg. Bars in Even Trades 0.00 0.00 0.00

Max. Shares/Contracts Held 1 1 1
Account Size Required $2,060.00 $2,210.00 $1,160.00
Total Slippage $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000
Total Commission $0.0000 $0.0000 $0.0000

Return on Initial Capital 4.46%
Annual Rate of Return 2.16%
Buy & Hold Return 30.58%
Return on Account 216.50%
Avg. Monthly Return $178.40
Std. Deviation of Monthly Return $616.24

Return Retracement Ratio 0.38
RINA Index 1439.41
Sharpe Ratio n/a
K-Ratio n/a

Trading Period 2 Yrs, 6 Dys, 9 Hrs
Percent of Time in the Market 3.63%
Time in the Market 26 Dys, 18 Hrs
Longest Flat Period 9 Dys, 17 Hrs, 30 Mins

Max. Equity Run-up $7,110.00
Date of Max. Equity Run-up 08/24/04 04:30
Max. Equity Run-up as % of Initial Capital 7.11%

Max. Drawdown (Intra-day Peak to Valley)
Value ($2,120.00) ($2,330.00) ($1,240.00)
Date 12/31/02 03:00
as % of Initial Capital 2.12% 1.24% 2.33%
Net Profit as % of Drawdown 210.38% 28.76% 305.65%
Select Net Profit as % of Drawdown 229.72% 37.34% 322.58%
Adjusted Net Profit as % of Drawdown 15.64% (94.96%) 67.37%

Max. Drawdown (Trade Close to Trade Close)
Value ($2,060.00) ($2,210.00) ($1,160.00)
Date 12/30/02 06:30
as % of Initial Capital 2.06% 2.21% 1.16%
Net Profit as % of Drawdown 216.50% 30.32% 326.72%
Select Net Profit as % of Drawdown 236.41% 39.37% 344.83%
Adjusted Net Profit as % of Drawdown 16.10% (100.12%) 72.02%

Max. Trade Drawdown ($530.00) ($340.00) ($530.00)



All Trades

Total Net Profit $4,460.00 Profit Factor 1.12
Gross Profit $40,280.00 Gross Loss ($35,820.00)

Open Position Profit/Loss $0.00

Select Total Net Profit $4,870.00 Select Profit Factor 1.14
Select Gross Profit $39,820.00 Select Gross Loss ($34,950.00)

Adjusted Total Net Profit $331.61 Adjusted Profit Factor 1.01
Adjusted Gross Profit $38,266.00 Adjusted Gross Loss ($37,934.39)

Total Number of Trades 687 Percent Profitable 58.22%
Winning Trades 400 Losing Trades 287
Even Trades 0

Avg. Trade Net Profit $6.49 Ratio Avg. Win:Avg. Loss 0.81
Avg. Winning Trade $100.70 Avg. Losing Trade ($124.81)
Largest Winning Trade $320.00 Largest Losing Trade ($530.00)
Largest Winner as % of Gross Profit 0.79% Largest Loser as % of Gross Loss 1.48%

Net Profit as % of Largest Loss 841.51%
Slct. Net Profit as % of Largest Loss 918.87% Adj. Net Profit as % of Largest Loss 62.57%

Max. Consecutive Winning Trades 10 Max. Consecutive Losing Trades 7
Avg. Bars in Winning Trades 2.63 Avg. Bars in Losing Trades 2.83
Avg. Bars in Total Trades 2.71

Max. Shares/Contracts Held 1 Account Size Required $2,060.00
Total Commission $0.0000 Total Slippage $0.0000

Return on Initial Capital 4.46% Annual Rate of Return 2.16%
Buy and Hold Return 30.58% Return on Account 216.50%
Avg. Monthly Return $178.40 Std. Deviation of Monthly Return $616.24

Return Retracement Ratio 0.38 RINA Index 1439.41
Sharpe Ratio n/a K-Ratio n/a

Trading Period 2 Yrs, 6 Dys, 9 Hrs Percent of Time in the Market 3.63%
Time in the Market 26 Dys, 18 Hrs Longest Flat Period 9 Dys, 17 Hrs, 30 Mins

Max. Equity Run-up $7,110.00
Date of Max. E. Run-up 08/24/04 04:30 Max. E. Run-up as % of Initial Capital 7.11%

Max. Drawdown (Intra-day Peak to Valley)
Max. Drawdown (Trade Close to Trade Close)

Value ($2,120.00) Value ($2,060.00)
Date 12/31/02 03:00 Date 12/30/02 06:30
as % of Initial Capital 2.12% as % of Initial Capital 2.06%
Net Profit as % of Drawdown 210.38% Net Profit as % of Drawdown 216.50%
Slct. Net Profit as % of Drawdown 229.72% Slct. Net Profit as % of Drawdown 236.41%
Adj. Net Prof as % of Drawdown 15.64% Adj. Net Profit as % of Drawdown 16.10%

Max. Trade Drawdown ($530.00)

Long Trades

Total Net Profit $670.00 Profit Factor 1.04
Gross Profit $18,960.00 Gross Loss ($18,290.00)

Open Position Profit/Loss $0.00

Select Total Net Profit $870.00 Select Profit Factor 1.05
Select Gross Profit $18,820.00 Select Gross Loss ($17,950.00)

Adjusted Total Net Profit ($2,212.57) Adjusted Profit Factor 0.89
Adjusted Gross Profit $17,580.86 Adjusted Gross Loss ($19,793.43)

Total Number of Trades 337 Percent Profitable 56.08%
Winning Trades 189 Losing Trades 148
Even Trades 0

Avg. Trade Net Profit $1.99 Ratio Avg. Win:Avg. Loss 0.81
Avg. Winning Trade $100.32 Avg. Losing Trade ($123.58)
Largest Winning Trade $140.00 Largest Losing Trade ($340.00)
Largest Winner as % of Gross Profit 0.74% Largest Loser as % of Gross Loss 1.86%

Max. Consecutive Winning Trades 7 Max. Consecutive Losing Trades 5
Avg. Bars in Winning Trades 2.64 Avg. Bars in Losing Trades 2.78
Avg. Bars in Total Trades 2.70

Max. Shares/Contracts Held 1 Account Size Required $2,210.00
Total Commission $0.0000 Total Slippage $0.0000

Net Profit as % of Largest Loss 197.06%
Slct. Net Profit as % of Largest Loss 255.88% Adj. Net Profit as % of Largest Loss (650.75%)

Max. Drawdown (Intra-day Peak to Valley)
Max. Drawdown (Trade Close to Trade Close)

Value ($2,330.00) Value ($2,210.00)
as % of Initial Capital 1.24% as % of Initial Capital 2.21%
Net Profit as % of Drawdown 28.76% Net Profit as % of Drawdown 30.32%
Slct. Net Profit as % of Drawdown 37.34% Slct. Net Profit as % of Drawdown 39.37%
Adj. Net Prof as % of Drawdown (94.96%) Adj. Net Profit as % of Drawdown 39.37%

Max. Trade Drawdown ($340.00)

Short Trades

Total Net Profit $3,790.00 Profit Factor 1.22
Gross Profit $21,320.00 Gross Loss ($17,530.00)

Open Position Profit/Loss $0.00

Select Total Net Profit $4,000.00 Select Profit Factor 1.24
Select Gross Profit $21,000.00 Select Gross Loss ($17,000.00)

Adjusted Total Net Profit $835.40 Adjusted Profit Factor 1.04
Adjusted Gross Profit $19,852.27 Adjusted Gross Loss ($19,016.88)

Total Number of Trades 350 Percent Profitable 60.29%
Winning Trades 211 Losing Trades 139
Even Trades 0

Avg. Trade Net Proft $10.83 Ratio Avg. Win:Avg. Loss 0.80
Avg. Winning Trade $101.04 Avg. Losing Trade ($126.12)
Largest Winning Trade $320.00 Largest Losing Trade ($530.00)
Largest Winner as % of Gross Profit 1.50% Largest Loser as % of Gross Loss 1.86%

Max. Consecutive Winning Trades 10 Max. Consecutive Losing Trades 5
Avg. Bars in Winning Trades 2.63 Avg. Bars in Losing Trades 2.88
Avg. Bars in Total Trades 2.73

Max. Shares/Contracts Held 1 Account Size Required $1,160.00
Total Slippage $0.0000 Total Commission $0.0000

Net Profit as % of Largest Loss 715.09%
Slct. Net Profit as % of Largest Loss 754.72% Adj. Net Profit as % of Largest Loss 157.62%

Max. Drawdown (Intra-day Peak to Valley)
Max. Drawdown (Trade Close to Trade Close)

Value ($1,240.00) Value ($1,160.00)
as % of Initial Capital 2.33% as % of Initial Capital 1.16%
Net Profit as % of Drawdown 305.65% Net Profit as % of Drawdown 326.72%
Slct. Net Profit as % of Drawdown 322.58% Slct. Net Profit as % of Drawdown 344.83%
Adj. Net Prof as % of Drawdown 67.37% Adj. Net Prof as % of Drawdown 72.02%

Max. Trade Drawdown ($530.00)

Created by TradeStation: 10/28/2004 9:10:10 AM, Copyright (c) 1991-2004 TradeStation Technologies, Inc.
Percent Profitable 58.22% 56.08% 60.29%

[theposer]

morning trader "If you understand candles"

You said the above in your first post that you need to understand candles when using this strategy, i would just like to know why?? and how do i incorporate my understanding of candles with this relatively simple MA cross system?

Thank you.............would just like to say i always use a good old fashioned line chart and whilst i understand candlestick patterns and why perhaps someone would use them i personally think they are catacalysmically overated and to me utterly pointless

[cyberwiz]

Originally posted by theposer
morning trader "If you understand candles"

You said the above in your first post that you need to understand candles when using this strategy, i would just like to know why?? and how do i incorporate my understanding of candles with this relatively simple MA cross system?

Thank you.............would just like to say i always use a good old fashioned line chart and whilst i understand candlestick patterns and why perhaps someone would use them i personally think they are catacalysmically overated and to me utterly pointless

I think the idea is to use the candlesticks only to to determine the close/open of a period. You could use the standard bars as well. This gives a better visual confirmation as opposed to a simple line chart. I don't think this strategy is using candle patterns (unless you want to incorporate them).

Regards,
Dimi

[nzbryant]

Those tradestation results - you have to add commission (spread) to them. You may not want to - because that would show it doesnt work - but one has to see the real facts.

[MorningTrader]

First of all - Mick - you’re rude. Very unappreciated comments and yes, I did report you for them.

Total..thanks for noticing that Mick is rude.

Valpo - Using the 62 EMA is a FANTASTIC idea but you won’t see too many crosses. One thing is for sure – it is EXTREMELY reliable! I would be happy with the 20 but haven’t back tested it enough to say for sure whether or not I’d use it. But hey, I like the idea!

ThePoser – I recommend candles because they show a shadow plus are easier to understand when putting the close higher or close lower idea in mind. I only trade if there are consecutive candles with small shadows on the 30-minute chart. In other words if there are 3 30-minute candles in a row and they all show that the rate has closed lower than it opened and then the 5 EMA crosses the 14 EMA then it will appear we’re in a directional trend (short term of course). Line charts are good too, but I just simply prefer the candles. Plus I wait to see that each candle is closed before entering into a tarde, considering there are times when the candle doesn't close, and you may enter a trade and the rate fakes you out.

So much for a good day. Why do people have to be...well...some words I just DON'T want to say! Anyway...

To you Mick...ROCK ON!
The young and motivated...
CJ

[MickMason]

Originally posted by MorningTrader
First of all - Mick - you’re rude. Very unappreciated comments and yes, I did report you for them.

And this should worry me, why?

If pointing out that a 'trader' has no place advising novice traders when he :

doesn't understand the meaning of EMA periods and doesn't care even though his strategy is based solely on them crossing

advises novice traders to risk 10% per trade

has some harebrained EMA cross strategy with 13pip stops and 3/4/6/10pip or 'anything he can get' targets based on an indicator which he doesn't understand in the first place

.....well if pointing that out is rude then yes, I'm rude.

You my friend, are clueless, and that's immediately apparent by reading your posts. Being clueless isn't a crime, we all started somewhere. You can lose your own money any way you chose, but to bill yourself as a mentor and advise others to follow your misguided advice that will ultimately lose them money or wipe them out altogether is not on.

You may well be 'young and motivated', I really can't tell, but one thing's for sure you don't know diddly about trading!

Mick

[autofx]

MorningTrader

Mick is doing you and others a favor.

Know that if you proclaim yourself as having figured out
something great, people are going to question you up and
down, and you'd better know exactly what you're talking
about to be taken seriously.

If your system is the Holy Grail, you'll be rich soon enough.

If not, and your system is just another of the kind we've
seen again and again, you will suffer pain and embarrassment,
and the sooner you are made to see you haven't struck gold, the
sooner you'll be able to retool or perhaps move on to something
besides trading.

Many here will give you a chance, even to the point of following
what you are offering blindly, in hopes of quick profits. They
don't know how to evaluate whether a system is any good
or not. They're the people P.T. Barnum was referring to when
he said...well, you know.

[MorningTrader]

Mick and Autofx...I won't stoop to either of your lows and I don't have to. You've made yourselves out to look like, well...no comment there.

I'll tell you one thing...if Rob Booker (Oh, who?) were to hear you mock EMA's he'd laugh in your face, too.

Still young and motivated...
CJ