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Originally Posted by KPcurrency
I have to disagree. What the herd is doing is very important. You want to be following the herd. It is correct that they are wrong at tops and bottoms, but most things are. Plus, top and bottom picker become cotton pickers.
BE ON THE SIDE WITH THE MOST ENTHUSIASM to make money. Therefore, you want to be able to measure the enthusiasm of the Herd.
Therefore, in essence, as trend traders we are always.......RUNNING WITH THE HERD
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It OK to disagree.
Bottom pickers, the good ones, get in early -- in Los Angeles however, they get laid. Elswhere they get smelly fingers!
Some further thoughts for clarification:
At bottoms the herd is excessively bearish, when in fact they ought to be bullish.
At tops they are excessively bullish when they ought to be bearish.
You
never want to be following the herd for if you do so you will always miss timely entries and exits. Those who "
RUN WITH THE HERD" get swallowed by crocs when the trend bends and the MORONS just
keep going.
But observing what the herd is doing -- that
is important. Not following, just observing to be able to gauge their emotion.
If the herd is generally always wrong, why then should one bother to observe what they're doing?
Because even though they get into the trend late they are responsible for the
middle and
latter stages of trend advancement -- the astute individual players have already been on board for quite some time; way before the middle part arrives.
The final stages of the trend -- when it starts getting frothy, is when the astute players get off the train.
The froth continues for quite some time still.
The trend then bends.
The herd, having discovered the new "truth" -- that this will go on forever, continues to stay on board.
As the trend has already bent and is hurtling in the opposite direction, the herd then proceeds to give all the gains back -- and then some!
They then wait for the next major turn and repeat the process, just as they've been doing for the last 75 million years.
Only lions, tigers, cheetah, leopards and Refco love the herd, for without it, they will cease to exist.
