What is a reasonable ROI expectation?

[Winemaker]

The MoneyTec survey on 2002 trading successes made me think.

I have seen various stats on trading success rates which claim that only 20% of traders actually make money and that the other 80% eventually turn to something else. I can well believe that given my 6 months trading experiences.

I would like to hear the views of the many experienced traders on the forum .... What is a reasonable expectation for return on investment, assuming a few basics such as:

Dilligence in self education.
Developing the required discipline.
One year full time experience
$10,000 starting equity.

What should one expect after one year?
What would be reasonable?
What would be outstanding?

[mig928]

I started trading forex in 2000. I've loss $30,000 since then. Beginning October of last year, everything I've learned seem to click together and I have not had a losing month since then.

I'm not even sure whether this is going to hold or for how long. It's like sports, you go on a slump and continue to play but only to lose.

My average monthly return is just over 5%.
My average weekly return is 1.46%
My weekly range is between -1.6% to +13.3%

I would consider 50% a year to be outstanding. If I tried for more I just lose it because fear and greed comes into play more often.

If you look at my profile you can see my monthly results for the past 6 months. I started to rebuild my account now and hope to go fulltime soon. Depositing any amount I can get my hands on. My wife is finally looking at making a deposit too. Her support is now making things a little easier. Before, she thought I was a fool.

[Winemaker]

Thanks Mig928,
This is like baring your soal! I guess we all are embarking on a scary journey. On the one hand I want to believe there is a rainbow out there; on the other I fear I might be dreaming, ....

But then, without the dreams.....

[gregh285]

winemaker,
Have traded stocks, options and futures before forex in Feb 02, profitable average over 4% per month since December 02. 50% per year would be excellent performance. Biggest drawdown 2% over a 2 day period. Lost for first eight months, although it only monunted to a couple of $k because i was trying to learn using $10k lots.
Hope to be full-time by year end.

Like Mig i have tried for more but found myself overtrading and getting worse results.
March has been tough, market reacting to geo-political developments, TA not adding up at times.

Overtrading I believe is one of the biggest determining factors between success and failure. Dont think you have to be in the market all the time, or when it is your day off. Patience is a virtue.

[mig928]

Greg, what equity level are you targeting to go full time. I'm looking at $250,000 based on my lifestyle(tax, expenses, wife & kids).

Other people's money could get me there faster. If I charge a performance fee of 20%, I'll need to have $1,000,000 under management.

I'm also looking into a home equity line of credit. I'm doing some calculations based on my current earning rate and cost to hold the loan. Ideal loan for my current performance and expenses is about $500,000.

The caveat is, will my performance hold.

[gregh285]

mig,
i'm looking to pay off any outstanding debts before f/time, including my home. This will relax the pressure on performance and enable more fluent and proficient trading.

After this, anywhere between $50-$100k is easily sufficient.
Again, can performance hold?

[patocato]

Please could you contact me to pcatoggio@yahoo.com. I need and update of both signals providers you used to follow.

TIA

Patricio

[Alkamyst]

I've just started to get interested in Forex trading. I've read several posts from traders that talk about "going full time" at some point in the future.

I currently have a full time job and I am wondering what is the best way to get started and eventually move full time.

Thanks.