Yet another newbie system!

[rollingstone]

Hi again sr2,

Only one thing you have to keep in mind when backtesting any system with the psar from historical charts is that the psar moves during the candle.

It may start on one side and then flip after say 2 hours of the 4 hour candle so you won't always be able to take the trade at the open of the candle after the flip because you don't know when that will be.

Sometimes it flips as the new candle opens and sometimes it flips after 3 and a half hours, unfortunately there is no way I know of to tell when this happens, I have a couple of systems that rely on the psar but the only way to back test them is to use the open of the candle after the flip.

Hope this makes sense and doesn't affect your results.

[Zorbas]

Hi SR2

Looks like a great system you have here, but I am a bit confused about the rules (new) you posted in latest update here: http://www.moneytec.com/forums/showp...&postcount=136

In point 5 of the rules you write:

5) Buy at open when PARSAR flips back if PARSAR is below SlowMA +15

Question 1: What is the "SlowMA +15"?

Question 2: What if the trend goes without creating this "flip" and just go on and on and on? If we are supposed to wait for such a flip (which may never occure) then we can miss the whole trend.

Can you please clearify a bit why you have introduced waiting for such a possible flip and re-flip before entering the trade?

Also, from the latest picture you posted, that should illustrate the rules, you put a circle around when the PARSAR first crosses the SlowMA, and then you write "Parsar cross as normal - but do not take signal here", still the picture shows that you entered the trade at exactly this point?

I seem to understand your rules that you want us to wait until the flip and re-flip before we enter the trade, still you enter YOUR trade at the first signal (a signal you don't want us to use as a signal). Sorry I am so confused about it, but would appreciate if you could explain in more detail.

And for the entry of the trade, what do you mean by entering "on open"? Entering on open of the next candle after the PARSAR has done its re-flip? Sorry for this question, but I am a newbie at this, but then again you are posting this for us newbies maybe

Regards
Zorbas

[Attiqul]

rollingstone is right when he said we need an additional system to get the early pips. This is a suggestion:

When the moving averages cross it is a sign that a new trend has developed. If at that point the ADX is rising and RSI is rising and not overbought, then go for the trade using $1 per pip. Let this continue until PAR swaps sides. Then wait until PAR swaps sides again, then use the YANS for the rest. The idea is here, when the moving averages cross and the adx and rsi is rising there is enough momentum for the trend to continue.

Please comment on this and try it out, see if it works. This is just a suggestion and I hope it makes sense as Iam new to forex.

[sr2]

Originally Posted by Zorbas

Hi SR2

Hi Zorbas

Please see me replies below.

Originally Posted by Zorbas

Looks like a great system you have here, but I am a bit confused about the rules (new) you posted in latest update here: http://www.moneytec.com/forums/showp...&postcount=136

In point 5 of the rules you write:

Question 1: What is the "SlowMA +15"?

What I meant by this is that as along as the PARSAR is below the current slowMA plus 15 pips you have a buy signal and vice versa for a sell. e.g. if the current slowMA is 1.5678 then as long as the PARSAR is less than or equal to 1.5693 you have a buy. Please note that all my figures are derived by looking at charts getting a feel for the numbers. I have not developed any kind of automated testing tool.

Originally Posted by Zorbas

Question 2: What if the trend goes without creating this "flip" and just go on and on and on? If we are supposed to wait for such a flip (which may never occure) then we can miss the whole trend.

Yes that is right. You could miss the trend. What I am trying to achieve with this system is something which generates profits. I am not fussed if the system misses a chunk of the trend as long as I get some of that. If you are looking to catch the whole trend then this system will not suit you. Also if you are looking to trade everyday this system will not suit you as there are few trades. This is probably the reason why the results thus far have been good. The system rules are very selective.

Originally Posted by Zorbas

Can you please clearify a bit why you have introduced waiting for such a possible flip and re-flip before entering the trade?

As several people pointed out the original YANS missed a bulk of the trend and then reversed causing a loss. By waiting for the flips I felt that the system could identify continuations. So basically the new YANS is a continuation detection system.

Originally Posted by Zorbas

Also, from the latest picture you posted, that should illustrate the rules, you put a circle around when the PARSAR first crosses the SlowMA, and then you write "Parsar cross as normal - but do not take signal here", still the picture shows that you entered the trade at exactly this point?

Ignore that buy. I think I was testing the original YANS.

Originally Posted by Zorbas

I seem to understand your rules that you want us to wait until the flip and re-flip before we enter the trade, still you enter YOUR trade at the first signal (a signal you don't want us to use as a signal). Sorry I am so confused about it, but would appreciate if you could explain in more detail.

See note above.

Originally Posted by Zorbas

And for the entry of the trade, what do you mean by entering "on open"? Entering on open of the next candle after the PARSAR has done its re-flip? Sorry for this question, but I am a newbie at this, but then again you are posting this for us newbies maybe

Regards
Zorbas

Enter at the open price of the new candle at flip back...which is what I think you typed above also.

Regards
SR2

[sr2]

Originally Posted by rollingstone

Hi again sr2,

Only one thing you have to keep in mind when backtesting any system with the psar from historical charts is that the psar moves during the candle.

It may start on one side and then flip after say 2 hours of the 4 hour candle so you won't always be able to take the trade at the open of the candle after the flip because you don't know when that will be.

Sometimes it flips as the new candle opens and sometimes it flips after 3 and a half hours, unfortunately there is no way I know of to tell when this happens, I have a couple of systems that rely on the psar but the only way to back test them is to use the open of the candle after the flip.

Hope this makes sense and doesn't affect your results.

Thanks for that rollingstone

All useful information. My preferred method of testing is forward testing which I have been doing for a few months now. The results have been good thus far so I hope they continue. Your point is very interesting. I guess time will tell if it impacts the results

Thanks
SR2

[sr2]

Originally Posted by Attiqul

rollingstone is right when he said we need an additional system to get the early pips. This is a suggestion:

When the moving averages cross it is a sign that a new trend has developed. If at that point the ADX is rising and RSI is rising and not overbought, then go for the trade using $1 per pip. Let this continue until PAR swaps sides. Then wait until PAR swaps sides again, then use the YANS for the rest. The idea is here, when the moving averages cross and the adx and rsi is rising there is enough momentum for the trend to continue.

Please comment on this and try it out, see if it works. This is just a suggestion and I hope it makes sense as Iam new to forex.

Thanks Attiqul

Sounds interesting. As a newbie maybe its a good exercise for you to try it out and let us know what the results are. You never know what you may find

My main goals at present are trying to bag more of the pips especially in terms of the exit strategy which I think lets me down as I end up missing so many pips. Go back through the charts and you will see. I think the system should be getting at least double what it currently gets.

SR2

[compro00]

Originally Posted by sr2

Thanks Attiqul

Sounds interesting. As a newbie maybe its a good exercise for you to try it out and let us know what the results are. You never know what you may find

My main goals at present are trying to bag more of the pips especially in terms of the exit strategy which I think lets me down as I end up missing so many pips. Go back through the charts and you will see. I think the system should be getting at least double what it currently gets.

SR2

Do not constraint ourselves looking for that only perfect exit. I once read a trading book says a good system can use 2 or 3 exit rules. So which ever come first... get out. Keep an open mind...

SR2, thanks for yr generousity. I like yr system very much.

1)Cut losses (max 100pips) - u have done that.
2)Let profit runs (for now 100pips) - need improvements. I will try to chip in ideas...

Thanks for all.

[tim_nn]

Originally Posted by sr2

So basically the new YANS is a continuation detection system.

Absolutely. I hope this comment won't confuse anyone, but it strikes me that this system is a sort of very, very, very, very, very large-scale "Ross-hook"!

Seriously, it has a lot in common with Ross-hooks of ultra-slow periodicity charts: it can miss a substantial portion of the trend; it can miss out on a complete trend that doesn't happen to contain one; it's extremely selective; it's a well-defined entry-technique without a similarly well-defined exit; and most important of all it's very reliable indeed.