Yet another newbie system!

[sr2]

Originally Posted by sr2

Ok here is a little more analysis work I did on my Jan trades.

BTW it looks like there may be a GBPUSD trade at 16:00GMT today.

Anyway please refer to the posted results so far. Basically if I had stuck to my rules of 100 SL and TP then this is how the trades would have ended (these are listed in the same order as the previous ones):

AUDUSD - TP target hit
USDCAD - TP target hit
EURGBP - TP target hit
USDCAD - TP target hit
EURCHF - Would still be in trade but down about 60 pips
GBPJPY - TP target hit
USDJPY - SL target hit - Missed TP target by 1 pip!!
AUDUSD - TP target hit
EURGBP - Still in trade with more profits

So for all except 1 trade so far the TP target was hit. There are 2 which would still be open. If I remember I will check what the outcome would have been next week.

I am using Metatrader to demo trade but will hopefully switch to RefCo or GFT in the next few days.

SR2

Finally remembered to check the open trades from Jan.

The EURCHF would have hit the SL and the EURGBP the TP. So pretty much BE on these two. Overall a good month.

SR2

[robber]

sr2, nice looking system. Any chance you could post up a recent (even current) image of the GBPJPY 4hr. I'm using MT and am having great trouble replicating your signals.


thanks

Neil

[sr2]

Originally Posted by robber

sr2, nice looking system. Any chance you could post up a recent (even current) image of the GBPJPY 4hr. I'm using MT and am having great trouble replicating your signals.


thanks

Neil

Hi Neil

Sorry for the late reply. Things have been a bit hectic over the past few days. Been trying to monitor the trades but it has been a bit difficult. Anyway here is the chart you asked for. As you can see the system made the 100 very quickly. But as I say on the chart if I had a descent exit strategy the system would have made a lot more, in fact coming up to 300 pips at the time of writing at the price is 199.20.

Did you upgrade MT? I use MT4 now but am having problems with it too. I am wondering if the change from v3 to v4 has caused problems. For example I tried to display ATR yesterday and it was clearly displaying stoch!!! I may need to re-install and check all my indicators. If I have time will try over the weekend.

SR2

Red = Slow MA
Blue = fast MA

[compro00]

how come there are 3 lines of MA ?? Which is which ?

[sr2]

Hi all

Just wanted to a make a few observations about the system or possibly my trading style. I often find that I close out the trades early. For example the AUDUSD trade from last week. The system made profit but I took only approx 70 pips. I think it could have done the 100 pips. Only time will tell as the trade would still be open.

My goal is to create a set and forget system but I am having a lot of difficulty doing this personally. Some maybe better than others at this. Also I do think I need to look at the exit strategy as I am missing out on a lot of pips. I think there are potentially an extra 200-300 pips per month which can be made, but I need to check. Several people have suggested ATR. I will take a look but if anyone has any particular suggestions on how best to use this let me know, remember I am a newbie

Overall though it seems like this system is profitable. Remember I have not backtested, I have forward tested. I am very tempted to jump in live now but think I need to spend some time looking at the exit strategy before I do.

SR2

[sr2]

Originally Posted by compro00

how come there are 3 lines of MA ?? Which is which ?

Sorry yes I should have explained. The red is the slowMA and the blue is the fastMA. I was looking at something else and left the medium MA in there too.

SR2

[sr2]

Ok here is some more analysis work. Please let me know if you spot any mistakes. This was done on a piece of paper while I was very tired

The analysis is for the JAN trades the system produced as shown on page 1 of the thread (same order). Please note this is what could have

happened not what did happen. Obviously for this to happen the calls for exit would have had to be very good!!!

CCY Type Open Price Best Price Date of Best
====== ==== ======== ======= ==========
AUDUSD Sell 0.7642 0.7504 18/1/05
USDCAD Buy 1.2277 This was not a trade as the price difference was over a 100 pips slowMA = 1.2166
EURGBP Sell 0.7020 0.6845 4/2/05
USDCAD Buy 1.2245 1.2363 20/1/05
EURCHF Sell 1.5402 Stop Loss hit
GBPJPY Buy 192.98 199.37 17/2/05 This is still open so could go up more
USDJPY Buy 103.52 106.84 10/2/05 This is still open at 105.34 so could go up more
AUDUSD Buy 0.7700 0.7888 14/2/05 This is still open so could go up more
EURGBP Sell 0.6942 0.6854 7/2/05 This is still open so could go up more


The following are the amount of potential pip profits/losses:

CCY Pips
====== ========
AUDUSD 138
USDCAD No trade
EURGBP 175
USDCAD 118
EURCHF -100
GBPJPY 639
USDJPY 332
AUDUSD 188
EURGBP 88

Total = 1578

Deduct the EURGBP trade as it is still open and has not hit SL so new total is 1490 pips.

Now lets assume that the other trades were closed at 50 pips of maximum profit. As we have 6 trades for this. We have 300 pips. Lets deduct this from the pip total of 1490 to leave 1190. If 100 pips is rought $800 this would be $9520.

This would be a VERY rough estimate of how many pips could be made if a good exit strategy was implemented.

If I have made any obvious mistakes and assumptions which I should noe have please let me know. If anyone can help out with the exit strategy

such as ATR please let me know.

Thanks
SR2

[robber]

HI SR2, thanks for the chart, just what I was after and it confirms that my chart (using the same settings) but on MT3 not MT4 is wildly different. Don't think its the PSAR, looks more like the MAs are out. Im away until next week but will trty to figure it out on my return.