My efforts at using Peter Bain's System

[albion]

I have been experimenting with Peter Bain's trading techniques for a few months now on a demo account with fairly good results.

I soon realised that while the system is quite a good one (imho), the only things stopping me from being totally successful are:

1) Experience

2) Discipline

To gain experience I have decided to trade the system on a demo account for 3 months and then evaluate the results.

This log is part of my attempt to instill some discipline into my trading. Maybe I hope that if other people are watching I will behave better

I will try and make the calls live, but I do have to put bread on the table so this might not always be possible.

I have set up a complementary thread to discuss issues relating to the system here so if you are going to post here please make sure the post is related to one of my calls, thank you.

I am quite excited about this and I am sure that with your help it can be a success!

[albion]

I realise that I made this trade yesterday but I thought I would put it on here anyway as it was my first day back (trading).

Normally what I do first thing is calculate the significant price levels (MAs support/resistance) for that day and put them in a spreadsheet. this makes it easier to calculate, and I can always go back and look at them.

Significant Numbers:

1.2389 High of 17/8 (Resistance)
1.2266 200 Day Ma
1.2155 Thursdays Low

Pivots:

1.2345 R3
1.2318
1.2291 R2
1.2277
1.2262 R1
1.2235
1.2208 P
1.2194
1.2179 S1

The formulas I have been using to calculate pivots are as follows:

P = (H + L + C)/3
R1 = 2*P - L
S1 = 2*P - H
R2 = P + R1 - S1
S2 = P - R1 -S1
R3 = H + 2*(P - L)
S3 = L - 2*(H - P)

Now on to the trading day:

The first thing I noticed was the slight MACD divergence between the price at midnight and at 6:15 (GMT) If I had been awake (I try to get up at 8:30 London time) I would have sold at 1.2235 which is halfway between P and R1, then bought at 1.2208 (P) for 17pips. But I wasn't awake so on to the next trade...

Everyone in the market was expecting the Deficit and PPI numbers to come out so I decided to watch what happened. It could be said that the numbers came out slightly in favour of the Dollar and the market dropped initially, it soon recovered however and before long was nearing the days highs.

While this is not a techcical indicator by any means I felt that now that the event risk was over the currency would take its natural path, UP! However, I decided to see if it would cross R1 before continuing. Sure enough it did and I managed to get filled at 1.2265. I didnt set a stop loss at the time but within minutes i was in 22 pips profit, i decided at this point to set a stoploss at 0 and TP at 30. Before long the position was automatically closed out at 30 pips profit.

Result: +30 pips

[John_M]

Hi Albion,,


Would be curious to know what pairs you are looking at trading.

And as for Friday unless I am seeing something different ,, CHF fell, rose up to above the days high then fell right away by around 100pips I think the pull-back was just a normal bouce of such a big fall...but who knows..It caught me out I was not expecting a large move as its not on my list as a big market mover. It is now though...

Regards ( hope the plan goes well for you )

John

[albion]

Morning all.

Pivots:

1.2332 R1
1.2289
1.2245 P
1.2212
1.2179 S1

Significant numbers:

1.2389 17/8 High
1.2310 Fridays High
1.2267 200 Day MA
1.2196 Fridays Low
(i do have some massive spikes lower on my system but I am ignoring them)

London time is now 10:00AM and price action so far has stuck exactly between the pivot and the halfway between pivot and R1.
On the hourlys there is a nice hammer bounce off P, but there doesnt seem to be any divergence

[albion]

11:00 London Time

Things are getting interesting! EUR/USD (the only pair I am trading right now) has just made a hammer bounce off P (1.2245) which is also a double bottom. It looks as though the pair has found its bottom today. Still I wont buy until I get a close above 1.2267 (halfway between 1.2245 and 1.2289)

If filled at that rate I would set SL at 1.2244 (23 pips) TP at 1.2310 (43 pips) although I will exit before then if the market indicates.

The double bottom has been broken now which would indicate a good selling oppurtunitybut I am waiting for a close below it before entering a position.

12:15

When the moment came to sell at 1.2245 I hesitated. Other than price breaking the pivot point there arent any other indicators suggesting a move down. Perhaps I am being overcautious here but it doesnt look as if there was much to trade so far today, lets see what the afternon brings

[albion]

3:30 London time

Noted massive railroad tracks bouncing off 1.22 (psychological resistance. The bar closed above 1.2245 so I bought on the next bar open, got filled at 1.2252, set SL at 1.2220 (30 pips) TP at 1.2289 (37 pips)

[albion]

Still open from yesterday, where I went long at 1.2252, so far this morning my TP was missed by three pips! Im not sure how to handle this as I usually start the day with a clean sheet. anyhooo

Pivots:

1.2324 R2
1.2308
1.2291 R1
1.2274
1.2256 P
1.2240
1.2223 S1

Important numbers:

1.2289 Yesterdays High
1.2267 200 Day MA
1.2220 Yesterdays Low

9:30
I have just noticed some slight divergence on the 15 mins, damn I wish I had seen that earlier. closed out at 1.2262

Result +10 pips

Will now look to go short below P

[albion]

10:00 London Time

Sold at 1.2248 (unfortunately got filled quite a bit below the pivot)
setting TP at 1.2223 (25 pips) SL at 1.2268 (20 pips)

[albion]

Looks like I have caught a nice little move here. I am going to remove my initial TP.

It appears that this move is based on the lower than expected German ZEW number.

Also have a look at this H+S on the hourly chart

[albion]

13:25 London time

Unfortunately the gains my position accumulated earlier in the session have vanished leaving me at roughly break even before the data.

It isnt major data so I am going to take the gamble of leaving my position open with a stop loss of 1.2256

Well looks like the gamble didnt pay off

Result -8 pips

[foroz]

I don't know what figures you were expecting to be released but the Current Account Trade Balance in the US would have been major figures in my view.

I know some sites didn't have this announcement shown as being released tonight...........but www.forexnews.com did and their free email service advised you of this some hours before the release.

However, I appreciate your postings......and I believe in pivot point trading.

[albion]

The news I was expecting was the retail sales figure, not major in my opinion, but it does seem to have had quite an effect. I guess it all depends on the timing, being the first major news of the week it could well set the tone...

13:45 London Time

Close above pivot 1.2274 triggers a buy, filled at 1.2283, no SL or TP at the moment. I am eyeballing it...

Damn these markets arent easy...just got stopped out for -28 pips

Result -28 pips

I think I will leave the market alone for the rest of the day

[foroz]

Albion,]

the news that was due out today other than the Current Account Trade Balance ( which does move markets ) was the Retail Sales for August in the US.............these are different to the usual weekly retail sales figures that come out each Tuesday. The weekly ones are released half an hour after the monthly ones.

It is just a matter of learning and trading accordingly.

The monthly Retail Sales figures have a HIGH market importance by themselves, let alone the Current Account Trade Balance figures (which for some reason didn' show as an annoucement on some sites........and those figures can definitely move markets).

I'm looking forward to your trades tomorrow.

[John_M]

Hi All,,,


Not to sure about which news item moved the market,,on my list of market movers the Current Account is way down the list and only does sometimes,,,but as for the Retail Sales,,,well thats fairly high up on the list of movers....

Regardles of which one moved the price around I learnt months ago that I am not trading at the time data is comming out.The swings in the last few months makes it to risky.


Regards

John

[albion]

Pivots:

1.2286 r1
1.2270
1.2254 p
1.2233
1.2211 s1

Significant numbers:

1.2267 200 Day MA
1.2220 Yesterdays Low
1.2297 Yesterdays High

8:55
The 1.2220 Region has provided support for the pair on bith Monday and Tuesday this week. And a large hammer has formed as the pair bounces offf that level. Looking to go long on the open of the next bar SL 1.2219, I imagine the pair will head to the other end of its range which would be about 1.2285

9:00
Filled at 1.2239, setting SL at 1.2218 (21 Pips) TP at 1.2270 (31 pips) for now