This is a discussion about EUR/JPY CYCLES UPDATE Part1 within the Trading Zone section, where you will Share and discuss all your active trades here. You can also post your trade recommendations here.; NEW LEVELS IN THE ATTACHED TABLE!
UPDATE 12/07/06 wed, US:
GBP/USD
Good idea is to add some to NET SHORT @ 1.8400-8430 SL 8480 TP 8240, or 100 pips away. Good confidence with this one
Good idea is to add some to NET SHORT @ 1.8400-8430 SL 8480 TP 8240, or 100 pips away. Good confidence with this one trade.
EUR/JPY GBP/JPY
Look for yen to topout 115.90-116.20, after a clean reversal Id recommend to short EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, however make sure YEN reverses SOUTH first! If EUR/JPY trades above 147.40 or actually if it breaks 147.00 Id recommend to stay out of that trade.
Current EUR/JPY resistance is 146.88, 14727 14708 are overshoot levels, anything strong above that level, please stay out!
EUR/AUD:
This item looks like it's reversing, however I can't confirm that, since I got two conflicting setups right now. FLAT NOW.
Have two fractal for SOUTH/NORTH move, now the idea is to wait for confirmation and either SHORT TOP or BUY BOTTOM, once the fractal is confirmed.
UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, US:
Considering a new trade setup:
AUD/USD
If the SHORT trade gets stopped out consider a new setup
BUY AUD/USD 7550 SL 7460 TP1 7600 TP2 7660 TP3 7710.
Once the targets are hit consider SHORTING in the window 7720-7760
EUR/AUD:
Looking for a reversal signal NORTH at 6870-6910, if that
confirms, can go LONG for 1.7380 SL 1.6840.
UPDATE 11/07/06 tuesday, ASIAN:
Current SELL WINDOW EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY
EUR/JPY
1st 146.30
2d 146.10
3d 145.70
TP 100-200 pips
SL 147.60 move to break even once in profit
GBP/JPY
1st 211 15
2d 210 95
3d 210 60
TP 100-200 pips
SL 211.60 move stop to break even once in profit and trail
This trade only good for the next 4 hours, once the pairs bottoms out.
Can BUY EUR/JPY same time for 60 pips.
EUR and CABLE levels coming up shortly, updating the scorecard now.
NEW TRADE SETUP
NZD/USD
LONG 1st 0.5990 2d 0.6040 TP 0.6380 0.6540 SL 0.5900
High probability trade
AUD/USD
SHORT ST 0.7510-0.7520 SL 7560 TP 7420 this one a 100 pips trade.
GBP/USD more risky trade
SHORT 8480-8520 area SL 8560 TP 70 pips.
would rather short from higher levels, or if you
have shorts since last week, advise to hold them now.
AUD/CAD setup
This item is shifting cycles as well, to a new uptrend, however right now
will likely retrace lower.
BUY WINDOW 0.8180-0.8230 SL 0.8100 TP 0.8560 going for 360 pips here.
Im also shorting at current levels (0.8390-0.8440) but can't recommend that to anyone.
So far:
EUR/JPY is +160
GBP/JPY +100
USD/CHF + 70
GBP/USD + 80
EUR/USD +60
GOLD + $9
EUR/CHF -40
USD/JPY - 90 - maybe close this trade and wait for a better setup.
PS:
1) I don't recommend closing EUR/CHF with a loss, since it will go up as soon at EUR drops.
2) USD/JPY - Do not recommend to close witha loss, since this pair will reach 110 in the nearest future - refer to the attached PDF file.
3) You could generally trade the pair in the direction of the trend, which is SOUTH for everything, aside from USD/CHF, which is going NORTH.
4) Name of the game trading strong trend on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is short on any retracement from the dips.
5) AUD/NZD is a little bit slow, so no analysis and setups for now.
THIS THREAD IS CLOSED! Please no posts here, thank you!
New trades posted with comments in attached PDF file. Thread closed till END of next trading week. Update Part2 coming after 14/07/06.
UPDATE on posted trades:
EUR SL hit - 70
GBP SL hit - 80
EUR/JPY +80 (I got in early +110) holding
GBP/JPY +60 holding
SPOT GOLD +4 holding
EUR/CHF holding SL moved to 1.5600 TP is 1.5770 -30 now
NEW Trade (not in PDF) SHORT AUD/NZD NOW OR (1.2320) SL is 1.2380 TP1 1.2240 TP2 1.2180 TP3 is 1.2080 TP4 is 1.1860. Last up to 3 months.
SHORT EUR/JPY NOW SL 147.80 TP (revised target1) 136.00 Can take GBP/JPY SHORT too
SHORT EUR/USD NOW SL 1.2840 TP (target1) 1.2660 1.2540 1.2400
SHORT GBP/USD NOW SL 1.8480 TP 1.8200
LONG EUR/CHF NOW SL 1.5660 TP 1.5780
SHORT SPOT GOLD NOW SL 638 TP 530
Update SUNDAY.
Have a good weekend and a profitable trading week!
Last edited by rufffen; July 22nd, 2006 at 03:31 PM.
UPDATE ON TRADES: NEW TRADE SETUP, please see attached chart.
USD/CHF BUY NOW OR at (1.2140) SL 1.1920 TP1 2600 TP2 3040 TP3 3800 TP4 5060 (long time). Trade can take 2-3 months to complete. Long term CYCLE trade.
For those who just want calls, without the PDF, post them now, in PDF I included some charts and as well as the performance update of previous calls:
SHORT EUR/USD NOW (2800) or at 2880 SL is 2940 (spike) TP is 2540 (260 pips)<o></o>
SHORT USD/JPY NOW (113.40) or at 114.60 SL is 116.60 TP is 110.40 (300 pips)<o></o>
SHORT EUR/JPY NOW (146.00) or at 146.60 SL is 148.00 TP is 136.00 (1000 pips)<o></o>
SHORT GBP/JPY NOW (210.90) or at 210.40 SL is 212.40 TP is 207.00 (300 pips)<o></o>
SHORT GBP/USD NOW (1.8510) or at 1.8660-8680 SL is 1.8780 TP is 1.8200 (300 pips)<o></o>
POSSIBLE RELATED COMMODITY TRADE:<o></o>
SHORT SPOT GOLD NOW (628) or at 636 SL 642 TP 560<o></o>
EUR/USD Trade update: Conservative trader will wait for a trendline break either direction. Some EW-traders see it as 1/2/3/4/5 on weeklies with 5 pointing NORTH for 1.3200, however I stick with A/B/C SOUTH.
Reasons so far:
1) Way I see it on eur/usd: Hedgers drove it to the top, took profits, lge specs persisted north, hedgers trimming their north possies, NET SHORT now.
2) Weekly eur/usd entering a sypercycle degree wave pointing south.
3) CHF changing cycles now for the NORTH journey.
4) We are way above year/quarter/month balance points on eur/usd, unless EU invented and anti-gravity device what goes up fast comes down with similar velocity.
5) My mmath floating box setup points that we could test 7/8 area around 2880. Looking at my statistics for eur/usd it hardly goes over 7/8 of the floating box. I do my stats with SPSS software and track results for last 6 years.
Finally I just don't see EUR/USD going up same time with EUR/JPY going down. Way I trade is based on history repeats itself market phenomenon.
1) Move all SL to breakeven on GBP/JPY EUR/JPY and XAU.
2) Considering a new trade, AUD/NZD LEVELS FOR SHORTING 2140-2200, SL 2340-2360 TP 1.1800. Need a confirmation, update after US close.
OK, hope everyone is riding with profits, USD/JPY prooved to be an outsider, it will catch up a little later, everything else is going nicely so far, move stops to B/E if you got open positions or take profits, will be new setups to reenter soon.
Ill update a scorecard of all active trades at the top of the thread.
EUR/USD you can wait for 2620-2640 and take a long on a retrace at that levels, probability is VERY HIGH, 70%-80%. You can trail open positions on EUR/USD GBP/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY and USD/CHF. Use 40-60 pips trailer.
levels for 12th July updates in the first post, please see the attached image with the scorecard table. Nothing exciting today, YEN crosses doing a retrace, so more opportunities to get in SHORT before it accelerates.
AUD/USD SHORT trade was triggered, lets see how it goes.
Also today saw that XAU SPOT GOLD accelerate further NORTH, broke 642 levels, so I got stopped out since last week, now it might as well try for 660 area, however my wave analysis points out that the longer term waves are still pointing SOUTH. For now it's FLAT on XAU. If you had any possies open SHORT since beginning of this week you should've moved SL to breakeven, as I pointed that out earier. Once in profit always move to breakeven and trail if you like, dont take any chances.
15th, 19th, 23d of July are next turning point on XAU spot gold. Next resistance is 664 and 689 and 712. Im still looking to short XAU, just need a bettern entry price now.
641 on XAU was indicated as an important highr, currently trading at 642, lets see if it is a major high and if price will retrace from the current levels.
Next important highs are 674 and 699. Lows 621 and 576 and 523.
Last edited by rufffen; July 11th, 2006 at 03:02 PM.
GBP/JPY if you are holding countertrend trade close it 211.40. If you are SHORT GBP/JPY move SL to 212.60, since USD/JPY can retest 116 in coming days before heading for 110.
OK, YEN crosses update is overdue, here's a possible scenario. If you initiated some longs on EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY as I recommended in the countertrend trade section, you'd be out with +110 pips per lot now.
OK, what's next is EUR/JPY will try for 145.20-60 VERY SOON, and from that point a BIG retrace NORTH up to 146.80, I don't expect it to rise any higher. Now if yous holding shorts since last week, you might want to close around 145.20 and take your profits, reinitiate your SHORTS after that ITEM retraces NORTH for 146.60-146.80, please make sure you see a nice reversal fractal form on 1hour charts around 146.60-80 b4 going SHORT!
I will update the situation as we go. AUD/USD SHORT was stopped out, and now flipped to NET LONG, currently trade is developing nicely, more in that item later.
XAU spot gold trying to push through 642, but with no luck so far apparently, lets see if it topped out, if it will go for 660 expect some crazy action on currencies! EUR and CABLE will rise!
GBP/JPY Update 12th UK session. Looks like that item might want to go higher yet, after a retrace of the highs now (currently 211.60). Its possible it will go SOUTH to 209.60-209.80 and then retrace to 212-213, I will update as we go.
Recommend to take profits on your shorts at the bottom as we start to retrace soon. Cant guarantee that it wont spike up to 213 before initiating a new stage in the downtrend.
Looking at USD/JPY 4hour chart I see another fractal, which sort of is in confluence with the yen crosses, USD/JPY might try for 116.20 one more time before going SOUTH to 112-113, Id recommend to wait for 115.90-116.20 to initiate SHORTS. Meanwhile Id just trade the crosses, according to the previous posts.
US session update: Since USD/JPY is pushing towards 116.20 and minor wave degrees on EUR/JPY point to further upside, won't recommend any more SHORT trades, before YEN tops out. It would be a definite and clear reversal signal, need to wait for that.
Meanwhile EUR/JPY could push beyond 148 soontime, it doesnt mean that the new downturn is off, this item needs to let the steams off before reversing SOUTH. 147.80-148.60 is about max it can do now.
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FX and XAU SPOT GOLD trades: Part1 
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