Sell Eur/Usd

[Iris]

Hello Noor my Friend....Everyone......

I would like to wish a Merry Christmas and Happy Holliday Season to All my Friends here @ MoneyTec and around the World.

Peace, Health, and Prosperity to You Now and into 2012 my Friends.

Best Personal regards,

IRIS FX

[nick74]

Hello Noor,

Site is back. We are doing some minor changes. It will be fully restored within 2-3 days. Thank you for your patience.

Merry Christmas to you and your family.

Best Regards,
Nick

Hi Nick

Please let us know when your site is fixed by posting here

Merry Christmas to you, Iris and all the moneytec community and happy new year

Thanks

[ist]

Iris, Moneytec and all,
Thanks for a good year. Looking forward to 2012!

Best I

[Iris]

Hello Everyone.....

The Euro Exits from 1.3410<>1.3370 Zone are complete ...with the Euro advancing just to the lower numeric of our 1.3080<>1.3050 Zone with a High @ 1.3064 and resold the Euro @ 1.3050 for a fractal Support break @ 1.2961 opening Exit Zones for this Euro South decline onto 1.2915<>1.2885 Zone before a correction North back onto 1.3125<>1.3150 takes place for a resumption of the Euro South Reversal onto the Weekly 50Fib @ 1.2130 going into 2012.

Currently Euro fractal Support break @ 1.2961 opens the decline onto 1.2915<>1.2885 Zone.

The Euro is unable to break our 1.2961 fractal Support with a Flag forming on the Daily in our 1.3080<>1.3050 Zone posted 2 weeks ago. Looking for a South continuation in the 1.3150<>1.3125 Zone for Sell Entries.

Euro Sell Zone @ 1.3150<>1.3125 for a decline break @ 1.3080<>1.3050 Zone onto important fractal Support @ 1.2961 for a decline continuance to 1.2915<>1.2885 Zone.

Let's see if we get our Euro Sell Zone @ 1.3150<>1.3125 Zone my Friends.

Time the Wave

IRIS FX

[Noor]

hello Iris

It looks like we had one of the lowest liquidity records during this month, as it
has obviously decreased significantly since we hit 1.2945 level two weeks ago.


Tomorrow and the day after will be the last trading days for 2011 and I expect it to be quite volatile.


hopefully 2012 won't have any of those sudden intense central bank interventions as it has been pretty frustrating for me.


Current price is at 1.2920, do you still see a pull back towards 1.3125 now that the daily flag has been broken?


Many thanks

[Iris]

Hello Noor myFriend...Everyone...

The Euro Exits from 1.3410<>1.3370 Zone are complete ...with the Euro advancing just to the lower numeric of our 1.3080<>1.3050 Zone with a High @ 1.3064 and resold the Euro @ 1.3050 for a fractal Support break @ 1.2961 opening Exit Zones for this Euro South decline onto 1.2915<>1.2885 Zone before a correction North back onto 1.3125<>1.3150 takes place for a resumption of the Euro South Reversal onto the Weekly 50Fib @ 1.2130 going into 2012.

Currently Euro fractal Support break @ 1.2961 opens the decline onto 1.2915<>1.2885 Zone.
The Euro is unable to break our 1.2961 fractal Support with a Flag forming on the Daily in our 1.3080<>1.3050 Zone posted 2 weeks ago. Looking for a South continuation in the 1.3150<>1.3125 Zone for Sell Entries.

Euro Sell Zone @ 1.3150<>1.3125 for a decline break @ 1.3080<>1.3050 Zone onto important fractal Support @ 1.2961 for a decline continuance to 1.2915<>1.2885 Zone.

Let's see if we get our Euro Sell Zone @ 1.3150<>1.3125 Zone my Friends.

The Euro Sell Zone @ 1.3080<>1.3050 onto Exits @ 1.2915<>1.2885 is achieved with a current Euro Low @ 1.2858 with an advance correction North currently underway testing our 1.2961 fractal to Support build the advance onto 1.3050<>1.3080 Zone with our potential Optimal Sell Zone @ 1.3150<>1.3125 still in the Future.

Noor I still see the Euro Sell Zone @ 1.3150<>1.3125 to be the next Optimal turning point for this South Reversal as the 1.2858 current Low was a probe to loosen up weak Support with an advance North once again moving Stops up the numeric ladder for which a sharp South Reversal with clout Sell Positioning taking out this next Support barrier @ 1.2885<>1.2850 for a South decline onto 1.2670<>1.2635 Zone enroute to the Weekly 50Fib @ 1.2130 later into 2012 my Friend.

1st up...Euro North Buys off 1.2885<>1.2915 Zone...
2nd up...Euro North advance correction onto 1.3050<>1.3080 Zone...preparing Euro Buy Exits.
3rd and final...Euro Optimal Sell Zone @ 1.3150<>1.3125 thru above Zones onto 1.2670<>1.2635 Zone.

Let's see what the Market prints for the Euro.

Time the Wave

IRIS FX

[MidnightRun]

Iris,
Thanks (as always) for your EUR/USD analysis, it seems to be materializing right now. What are your projections for the Australian?
Thank you

[Noor]

Thank you Iris


unfortunately I can't execute any buy orders right now as I feel I should avoid the yearly close.


My question is have you tried using tools that some brokers offer which unveils the stops placed for considerably large positions in the market? I believe FCStone does provide such tool. and if your answer is yes, have you found it useful?

I have taken a peak at something similar and and it appeared to show the stops of the dumb money and I could not find it useful.

Also, is there any resources/learning material for were we can start from to understand your numeric wave count?

I hope you enjoy your new years party


Many thanks

[ist]

Thanks Iris for the timely update. Accuracy on the last run was impressive.

Here is a view on the COT positioning (non-commercials). Historical levels of short - yet not yet at the levels of the bull run up until 2008 (opposites). Possibly some way to go before they start building long positions again.

Spread positioning has also declined the last few months perhaps indicating less uncertainity about direction.

Best,
I

[Noor]

Hello IST, in my understanding, Iris focus more on the large spec vs commercial positioning through the open interest into the current actual live market price movements.

which I have found most effective

[ist]

Dear Noor,
This is the positioning of the "large specs". The technical reporting nomenclature is "non-commercials". Strictly speaking the regulations only define the "commercials". The residual is concidered non-commercials - and by derivation these would be traders who trade for speculative purposes - not for hedging. These "Non-commercial" entities still fulfill the statuatory requirements for reporting allthough their purpose for trading is different than the commercials. Sometimes we also see the term "small specs" used. This is a further residual category derived from the total open interest which is usually a little larger than the combined positioning of commercials and non-commercials. These are traders who are not subject to the reporting requirements. We really dont know who they are (i.e in principle could be Soros personal account....) - but they are often referred to as small specs.

In the new nomenclature (not shown here) introduced not long ago - the non commercials are referred to as supply side (and also with further sub-categories available). It is now possible to follow i.e the leveraged hedge funds specifically. Unfortunately historical data are not yet built up to understand these patterns properly. I'll post something later on this.

You are correct that it is also useful to view the commercial positioning. These are mostly dealers for hedge positions for trade/industry and will by definition be countertrend.

There are many issues with this reporting and it cannot be concidered an indicator with much precision - certainly not for daytrading. Positioning can change quite quickly. The report reflects positions as of Tuesday each week - and released Friday after market close. Also the representativeness of the sample is not-known. These are trades at CME - which although a significant marketplace - is still a small fraction compared to the global daily 4 trillion turnover in spot FX.

The positioning still generally reflects underlying macro trends quite well. Notice that before most significant trend changes we can see gradual scaling of positions over seveal weeks/months before the reversal. Mostly however, these traders are trend-followers and as such their positioning may simply state the obvious.

Of slight concern at the moment however is that the short positions have not really increased over the last four months. Slight increase in longs actually. This might change if we trigger new levels below and various trend-following systems kick in.

Best, I

[Noor]

hello IST

You really should read what Iris wrote about the COT reports and how he actually made some really good daily calls based on looking at commercials<>largespec through open interest.

the Commercial positioning are the heaviest most important to look for when checking the COT data, as Iris has stated before, their pockets are deep enough to actually move the market.

[ist]

Dear Noor and all,
Let me present the remainder of the key facts and readers may interpret as they see fit. These are all COT data as reported to the CFTC. CME publishes daily volume data, but as far as I know they do not disclose positioning in aggregate or by any subgroup. Great if it is different. CME EUR/USD futures/options volume is about 60bn daily. That equates to about 4,5 percent compared to an estimated 1,3 trillion volume of EURUSD total globally. (From the BIS 2010 survey assuming EURUSD is about 1/3 of total 4 trillion total FX turnover)

Exhibit 1: (above post) net-long positining of "non-commercials." These are net-short at lowest levels in 10 years.

Exhibit 2: Net-long positioning of "Commercials". These are increasing their long positions.

Exhibit 3. Net-Long positioning of both "Com" and "Non-Com" combined. Slightly above positive (long).

Exhibit 4: Size of the two groups compared by total position sizes. "Commercials" have historically been the largest group in terms of total position sizes. The differences are declining. This is also consistent with the above mentioned BIS survey which found that most of the increase in FX volume was due to increased speculative activity.

Best,
I

[Iris]

Hello Midnight...Noor...Ist...Everyone....

1st on the Aud/Usd...

The Aud/USD has entered our 1.0080<>1.0040 Zone with a current Low @ 1.0057 and a South decline beak @ 1.0040 Support has the Aussie entering and testing parity @ 1.0000 to the USDollar. A South decline break @ 1.0000 has small Support opposition and a decine fall to 9925<>9910 Zone would be quick and decisive.

Let's watch carefully how 1.0080<>1.0040 Zone develops for a test/break @ 1.0040 to judge Exits with a potential extension to parity @ 1.0000 before a North correction back onto 1.0150<>1.0110 Zone for a resumption of this South Reversal decline thru 1.0000 onto 9925<>9890 Zone.

Our prior Sell Zones on the Aussie had us Exiting @ 9890 with a current Aussie Low @ 9862 for an advance North of the entire Range that we initiated back in October/November 2011 to a current High @ 1.0380.

Looking for an Aud/Usd Optimal Sell Zone @ 1.0405<>1.0435 for a South decline back onto 1.0310<>1.0290 Zone enroute to 1.0230<>1.0180.

The Aussie is about to enter our Sell Zone @ 1.0405<>1.0435...let's see if we get it.

Time the Wave

IRIS FX

[Noor]

Hello Iris... everyone

The Euro went down today and broke a key support level while the Aud and Gbp are still holding. indicating a lot of weakness in the euro

Iris, are we looking at the launch of a major collapse in the EurUsd? or we still need to see 1.3125<>1.3150 first?

Todays move does make sense on my charts after the double top on 1.3070 level, but I could not catch it though.

Many thanks