InstaForex Wave Analysis

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GBP/JPY Weekly Wave Analysis 2012-08-01




GBP/JPY Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the GBP/JPY pair was trading in a downward move developing last corrective wave C (coloured blue) of the bigger (2) wave (coloured green). From early European till the second half of the New York session this exotic pair was trading in a descending movement towards the 122.15 level. Today the GBP/JPY pair tried to push higher but after testing resistance level around 122.60, the price fell back to the 122.00 level and we can consider this move as the end of the (2) wave. At the moment this exotic currency finished developing of the C wave (coloured blue) and we can expect to see price higher for the next few days. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (120.81-123.70-121.95) with Take Profit 1 at 124.95 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 126.77 (161.8% of wave 1). Invalidation point at 120.81 can be used as Stop Loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 121.75 (S2) 122.06 (S1) 122.25 (PP) 122.57 (R1) 122.88 (R2) 123.07 (R3) 123.39
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 122.65 with Stop Loss 120.81, Take Profit 1 124.95 and Take Profit 2 126.77 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[IFX Gertrude]

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis

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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel at 96.30 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a breakthrough these levels will release good potential and will be able to reach the upper limit of this one to 96.90.
Technical indicators do not provide clears signals but until the resistance is not broken, the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
According to previous events, the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 96.30 with the 1st objective at 96.90 and then at 97.20. A breakthrough 96.10 will invalidate this scenario.

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EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels for August 2, 2012



Today’s Technical Levels:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2296.
Strong Resistance: 1.2289.
Original Resistance: 1.2278.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2266.
Target Inner Area: 1.2237.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2207.
Original Support: 1.2196.
Strong Support: 1.2184.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2177.
Description:
Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2196 and 1.2278 and is accompanied by strong support at 1.2184 and by 1.2289 as strong resistance.
If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below 1.2177 level today, this will indicate a considerable bearish strength, while if EUR/USD manages to break out and close above 1.2296 level, this will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.2207-and SELL position at 1.2266, in this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.2237.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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AUD/USD Intraday review for August 2, 2012



Description:
When AUD/USD successfully goes through the 1.0500, then it is likely to go to 1.0525 and 1.0550. Conversely, if the 1.0475 successfully passed, then the 1.0450 and 1.0425 is likely to be tested by this currency.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels for August 2, 2012



Today’s Technical Levels:
Resistance 3: 78.90.
Resistance 2: 78.74.
Resistance 1: 78.59.
Support 1: 78.39
Support 2: 78.24.
Support 3: 78.08.
Description:
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (78.08) and resistance 3 (78.90). In general, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign that these currencies have found trends today.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[IFX Gertrude]

EUR/JPY Intraday Technical Analysis


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During the week the spot rate was evolving between the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 95.50 and the upper limit of this one at 97.00. Yesterday it broke its support leading to acceleration. A pull back is expected before reach the lower limit of its channel to 93.80.
Technical indicators provide sell signals but with the violent movement of yesterday this is normal. However, they are approaching oversell zone supporting the assumption of a pull back. We can note that the break of yesterday was made with important volumes limiting the risks of false signals. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.
We support the assumption of a pull back and recommend to sell the spot rate on the levels of 95.50 with the 1st objective of 94.90 and then at 94.70. A breakthrough 95.70 will invalidate this scenario.

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USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels for August 3, 2012



Today’s Technical Levels:
Resistance 3: 78.51.
Resistance 2: 78.36.
Resistance 1: 78.20.
Support 1: 78.01
Support 2: 77.86.
Support 3: 77.70.
Description:
Please, pay attention to the levels of support 3 (77.70) and resistance 3 (78.51). In general, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by 10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign of that these currencies have found trends today.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[insta_poster]

EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 3,2012



EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the EUR/USD pair was trading in a downward move developing corrective wave C (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (2). During the European session we could observe a strong ascending movement from 1.2215 towards the 1.2400 level. Therefore, during the New York session the EUR/USD pair did not manage to hold this level and price fell to the new 5 days low at 1.2132 level (end of the C wave). Today we can observe the beginning of the (3) impulsive wave and we are expecting to see price higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2041-1.2390-1.2132) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2480 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2695 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk we can use Invalidation point at 1.2041 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the EU Retail Sales m/m and U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.1968 (S2) 1.2071 (S1) 1.2135 (PP) 1.2239 (R1) 1.2342 (R2) 1.2406 (R3) 1.2510
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.2235 with Stop Loss 1.2040, Take Profit 1 1.2480 and Take Profit 2 at 1.2695 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[insta_poster]

GBP/JPY Wave Analysis for August 3,2012



GBP/JPY Elliott Wave
For the last 5 days the GBP/JPY pair was trading in a downward move developing corrective wave (2) (coloured green). Yesterday during the European and New York sessions we could observe a strong descending movement towards the 121.10 level (5 days low).Today during the early Asian session this exotic currency break below yesterday’s low and price reached 121.03 level. We can consider this move as the end of the (2) wave (coloured green) and we are expecting to see the price higher for the next few days. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (120.81-123.70-121.03) with Take Profit 1 at 124.10 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 125.92 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk we can use Invalidation point at 120.81 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the UK Services PMI and EU Retail Sales m/mI data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 120.22 (S2) 120.78 (S1) 121.13 (PP) 121.69 (R1) 122.25 (R2) 122.60 (R3) 123.16
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 121.70 with Stop Loss 120.81, Take Profit 1 124.10 and Take Profit 2 at 125.92 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[IFX Gertrude]

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Analysis



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On Friday the spot rate climbed up following the publication of positive U.S. economic indicators and reached the upper limit of its medium term bullish channel at 1.2450. Now it seems to initiate a decline. However, a break of these levels would release a large potential.
Technical indicators provide sell signals and approach overbuy zone suggesting a return to its intermediate support at 1.2280. However, the decline of the volume fears us false signals. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong increase these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.
We can consider two options: the first one is trying "short" and sell the spot rate on the level of 1.2450 with a target at 1.2390. The second one is waiting and trying a buy on the intermediate support at 1.2280 with a target of 1.2340.

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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for August 6,2012



EUR/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the EUR/USD pair was trading in an upward move as we expected, developing impulsive (3) (coloured green). During the Friday's European session we could observe an ascending movement towards the 1.2290 level (daily high). Therefore, during the New York session the EUR/USD pair continued trading in a bullish mood and price hit a new 4-week high around 1.2390 level. Today during the early Asian session this major pair found resistance at 1.2442 and the price is currently trading around 1.2350 level. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.2041-1.2390-1.2132) with Take Profit 1 at 1.2480 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.2695 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use support point at 1.2350 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the EU Sentix Investor Confidence and U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.2088 (S2) 1.2175 (S1) 1.2228 (PP) 1.2314 (R1) 1.2401 (R2) 1.2454 (R3) 1.2540
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is likely to begin the upward movement. For this reason long positions at level 1.2400 with Stop Loss 1.2350 Take Profit 1 1.2480 and Take Profit 2 at 1.2695 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[insta_poster]

USD/CHF Wave Analysis for August 6,2012



USD/CHF Elliott Wave
Last week the USD/CHF pair was trading in an upward move until Thursday when (2) wave (coloured green) finished and we could observe price going lower on Friday when the development of the impulsive (3) wave starts. During the Friday's European session we could observe a descending movement from 0.9870 towards 0.9770 level. Therefore, during the early New York session this major pair continued trading in a bearish mood and price reached a new low at 0.9695 level. Today price started pushing higher but we are expecting to see it around 0.9450 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9972-0.9695-0.9897) with Take Profit 1 at 0.9620 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 0.9450 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use Resistance point at 0.9770 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 0.9578 (S2) 0.9646 (S1) 0.9688 (PP) 0.9756 (R1) 0.9824 (R2) 0.9866 (R3) 0.9934
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9700 with Stop Loss 0.9770, Take Profit 1 0.9620, and Take Profit 2 at 0.9450 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[insta_poster]

GBP/JPY Wave Analysis for August 7,2012



GBP/JPY Elliott Wave
Yesterday the GBP/JPY pair was trading in a strong descending movement developing corrective wave 2 (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (3) (coloured green). During the Asian and the European sessions we could observe a downward movement of this exotic currency pair that brought price towards the 121.67 level and we can consider this move as the end of the 2 wave (coloured blue). Therefore, during the New York session the GBP/JPY pair did not manage to hold this level and the price started pushing higher when the development of the impulsive 3 wave (coloured blue) started. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (121.03-123.12-121.67) with Take Profit 1 at 123.73 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 124.97 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use Support point at 121.40 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the UK Manufacturing Production m/m, NIESR GDP Estimate, Industrial Production m/m data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 120.88 (S2) 121.43 (S1) 121.77 (PP) 122.32 (R1) 122.87 (R2) 123.21 (R3) 123.76
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 122.20 with Stop Loss 121.40 Take Profit 1 123.73 and Take Profit 2 at 124.97 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[insta_poster]

AUD/CHF Wave Analysis for August 7,2012



AUD/CHF Elliott Wave
For the last few days the AUD/CHF pair was trading in a downward move, developing corrective wave (2) (coloured green) of the bigger (5) wave (coloured orange). Yesterday during the early Asian session we could observe a descending movement towards the 1.0202 and we can consider this move as the end of the C wave of the bigger (2) wave. Therefore, during the European and New York sessions the AUD/CHF pair did not manage to hold this level and price reached a new daily high at 1.0292 level. At the moment, this currency pair was developing impulsive (3) wave and we are expecting to see the price around 1.0565 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (1.0127-1.0345-1.0202) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0428 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0565 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use Invalidation point at 1.0126 as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor the Swiss Foreign Currency Reserves and CPI m/m data that can change the rate of the pair.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0153 (S2) 1.0188 (S1) 1.0210 (PP) 1.0245 (R1) 1.0280 (R2) 1.0302 (R3) 1.0337
Trading Forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0270 with Stop Loss 1.0126 Take Profit 1 1.0428 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0565 are recommended.

Performed by Nicola Delic, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[IFX Gertrude]

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis for August 8 - 2012


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Today's Support and Resistance Levels:
S1: 97.11 R1: 97.40
S2: 96.75 R2: 97.80
S3: 96.33 R3: 98.13

Technical Overview:
The failure to break clearly above 97.80 has changed the short term scenario slightly. Instead of red wave ii ending at 96.70, the decline from 97.80 down to 96.70 only marked wave "a" of red wave ii. The rally from 96.70 up to 97.80 marked wave "b" and we are now in wave "c" of red wave ii, which ideally should take us to the 96.33 - 96.44 area from where the next powerful rally in red wave iii should take off towards 100.30 and maybe even closer to 101.52.

Trading Recommendation:
The long EUR position from 95.85 is still protected by a stop at 94.95. If you are not long EUR already, then buy at 96.50 with the same stop.

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