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Old 22-02-2004, 01:14   #1
novice
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USD bears 2

For long-term USD bears, how are you going to get back into short USD trades?

This would be my favoured scenario:

1 Bullish divergence (i.e. red line on MACD-H)


Of course there might be multiple lower highs before the buy stop is triggered.

Would be much the same for USD/CHF, GBP/USD, AUD/USD or USD/CAD as in EUR/USD.
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Old 22-02-2004, 05:20   #2
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Anyone has any ideas as to when this USD rally is likely to slow and maybe reverse?

Maybe at support (i.e. 1.2350 on EUR/USD and similar levels on other USD pairs)?

Maybe later this week (i.e. 22/2/2204) people might start looking at the USD fundamentals again?

Maybe once the latest jaw boning from the ECB and BoJ fades in the memory?

On a side note the BoJ was fantastically effective Friday night. Japan's Q4 GDP numbers were very strong. The USD/JPY was looking to break below 105. Then Japan issues a terror alert and partly mobilises its armed forces. Causing the USD/JPY to rise slightly. Then the BoJ intervenes once it has the momentum behind it sending the USD/JPY much higher. All this happened during thin Friday afternoon trading which enhanced the BoJ actions. I guess after losing billions intervening you are going to learn a few tricks.
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Old 23-02-2004, 08:07   #3
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If the USD falls from here (i.e. the broken red line) place a buy stop at the top blue line (i.e. 1 tick above the relative high).

Most likely the USD will rally again in this case (i.e. the unbroken red line) place a buy stop at the bottom blue line (i.e. 1 tick above the relative high)

If the USD has a number of rallies keep lowing the buy stop to the next relative high. Because a buy stop is used to enter no money will be lost is the USD keeps on rallying (i.e. the stop will not be triggered).

A bullish divergence between price and MACD-H would be a good signal that the USD rally is about to reverse.

These are not recommendations, just me thinking out loud. If anybody agrees or disagrees please feel free to comment.
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Old 23-02-2004, 12:59   #4
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Hiya folks
First time posting so hello to everyone

On the fence waiting for new information.

The dailies are catching up to its trend but its still rangebound

Overall am bearish on e$ and £$ but i think slight patiences for now to see whats what.
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Old 23-02-2004, 13:01   #5
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£$ also bearish here and taken a speculative short * 1.8690 38% fib area

Happy trading

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Old 23-02-2004, 22:35   #6
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Newtron Bomb

Hello

I am bearish on the USD. As such I am looking to BUY EUR/USD (or BUY GBP/USD, AUD/USD or SELL USD/CHF, USD/CAD).

I am looking for the right time and price to do this.
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Old 23-02-2004, 22:56   #7
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AUD/USD

Buy a upside breakout above blue line?
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Old 25-02-2004, 18:46   #8
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EUR/USD

Bullish divergence between price and MACD-H (bottom blue line)

Place a buy stop 1 tick above at 1.2717 (top blue line)

If EUR/USD downtrand reverses stopped in, if not you lose nothing.

What do you think?
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