90% loosers in FX

[Cutten13]

Originally Posted by eurobloke

Lets all hug and pat our money hehehehehe

Most traders lose because they think they can trade profitable only with charts, but they need to know what's going on, and why.

[birdjaguar]

This sounds good, but is not always the case. In fact, there are many occasions where people make up an answer to the why question. And then people still don't agree on the answer.

The price moves and then some brilliant Anaylst comes up with a reason why the price moved after the fact. You cannot trade after the fact.

What is currently going on is also not tradeable. You need to know what is expected in order to anticipate price movements. Even if you are a trend follower, you have to anticipate that the trend will continue.

Further, there are profitable systems traders who cannot possibly follow the fundamentals of the many diverse markets that they trade. They trade on price only. It can be done. It should not be attempted by a beginner. Happy trading!

[rockinride]

Most Trader's Lose because the retail FX market is designed to take your money. We all like to act like this is such a highly skilled profession, but conceptually it really isn't. It's buying or selling based upon a logical prediction of what might happen in the future. Avoid the major news announcements, and the market pretty much tells you which direction it is going to go with proper TA, but most do not realize how much needs to be risked, and when to take profit, and how much of their account to use. The fact is most hope to make a million with 3 to 5K. This is just not possible in any reasonable time frame.

It's an expensive game, and if you have the money to play it, there are much saner ways to invest in secure financial endeavors that are insured. But gamblers are out there and always will be, and that's what drives these markets. I have really read just about everything out there in the six or seven years I have been interested in the markets, and the one thing I see as a repeating theme is that, nothing really works, for any length of time, and the things that last the longest seem to offer the most conservative returns.

Another thing is the amazing lack of good charting software, and easy to program alert systems. It's almost as if it is all weak by design. I mean with the amazing advances in software and graphic development, we as retail traders are only offered maybe 3-4 platforms that even allow for this type of programming and most do not even consider tick data rendering them inaccurate in back tests. I cannot say for sure, but I would be willing to bet the big guys have a lot of custom programming going on, and are seeing the markets with an edge that the average retail trader just does not have available. The Hubble verses a magnifying glass if you will.

I think most would agree that this game is stacked against you. I have developed a system that looks good over the last few years and is continuing to perform. It features low risk entry with anywhere from a two to five times profit against the risk taken on any single trade. It loses more than it wins, but usually edges out by 100-200 pips or so a month. The problem is, first of all I do not have enough money or time to trade it, and although relatively simple to see with the human mind, it would be a bear to program because it is pattern as well as indicator based, and requires different chart views to make it automated. And who would really trust trades to automation anyway. I think that is insane without visual confirmation.

So I think that even those who stick it out and learn to trade successfully, will still have long runs where their system fails to perform consistently, and the fact that the forex market is 24 hours is a disadvantage in my opinion, because anything can happen anytime.
Most do not have the discipline for the demands of the market or the patience to ride out the tough times without succumbing to the urge to re-invent their trading system during those periods.

90% who knows? It's probably pretty close to 100% in the end.

[rkanak]

those who say that 90% of the people loose in FX... Name any one industry or business were the sucess ratio is very high..
Forget about the businesses... even when you apply for a job there are aleast 10 people applying for a single position.. but we still apply for that job..
Go for something that is tough and challenging or be a side gazer and when you retire just regret on the fact tha you did not take enough chances in life....

[birdjaguar]

Good point rkanak. You are going to spend a lot of time and energy on whatever field you go into. And you are going to spend money on any entrepreneural field that you go into. So, if you are leaning toward entrepreneurship, why not try something with a larger upside?

[tdeketel]

Originally Posted by rkanak

those who say that 90% of the people loose in FX... Name any one industry or business were the sucess ratio is very high...

True, but the success ratio in other businesses is substantially higher. Much less than 90% of the startups go bankrupt. But that might be because other businesses are most likely sufficiently capitalized and because they have a good business plan to survive the first few years (usually the most difficult years). Most traders don't have a business plan and don't have the proper capitalization to start a real business and think they are going to multiply their trading capital by ten during the first year (which is possible, but very very unlikely).

If you treat trading like a real business with a good concept (trading system), the proper (trading) skills, a business plan and enough money, I really believe that the success ratio will be more or less the same as in other industries.

[radicalmoses]

ok, the question now is if only 10% are winning, are the odds better than a casino.
In fact the fx market with higher leverage is a venue for loosing your money faster.

So is it just a chance of statistics that some people will perform better and be at the top than others?

If so, man,, most of us are doomed. Most of us are chasing a mirage and ultimately the house will win.

Do daytraders really win atall?

[lamode]

Originally Posted by radicalmoses

ok, the question now is if only 10% are winning, are the odds better than a casino.
In fact the fx market with higher leverage is a venue for loosing your money faster.

So is it just a chance of statistics that some people will perform better and be at the top than others?

If so, man,, most of us are doomed. Most of us are chasing a mirage and ultimately the house will win.

Do daytraders really win atall?

I dont think so. we are talking about 10% traders that make profit not 10% winner trades.

I found out that the odd is 50% in forex if you dont do any analysis, its either up or down. The fact that most people loss in forex is that they do not use SL or double up their position size when they winning or losing, basically lack of MM.


Forex is not same as casino, lets say you have $100 your pocket and you go to casino, you put $50 to the black and red table then you play the game, in the end of the game you either win $50 or lose $50.

In forex, if you dont have proper MM, a trade with a pip value of $1 could take out the whole of your account because there is no ending in this game, thrus, we need to have a proper business plan.