99% Winners!!! Wow, what a place!!

[Habib]

I am a contrarian by nature so I do very well in ranging markets (even when they range temporarily during a trend). When the markets break out of a range and start trending, I do get some beating until they pause for a breather. So far I have been up overall since I (re)started trading June last year but I do wish I could spot the trend development early enough to do better.
I also tend to give more weight to fundamentals than technical factors and need to strike a better balance.
P.S. I have always taken a beating trading AUD/USD and USD/CAD. My EUR/USD and cable (both long and short) trades have mostly been profitable though. I lost quite a bit on USD/JPY (going long) initially but then recovered all and then some. My trades in USD/CHF have been very few and far in between but mostly OK.

[MickMason]

Originally Posted by 4xis2ez

Just read this thread for the first time. Mick, are not you the one who started the thread "Can it get any easier"? I guess you are a sucessful trader but I consider that thread title very misleading. Trading is not easy but hard. Most lose money at it. Newbies probably read that thread thinking they will strike it rich with your techniques. I am just suprised that now you say you have many losing trades. Is it easy or not?!

Hi Russ

Trading is as hard or as easy as you want to make it!

The 'Can it get any easier' thread is in the 'Charting & Technical Analyst' forum and therefore the 'easier' relates to charting and technical analysis, I don't think it's misleading in the slightest. By the way, trading Fibonacci levels is not a technique I devised, it's been around for a long while and is no secret. I stress many times that accurately predicting market direction is not all it takes to be a profitable trader, there is more to it, but for technical analysis I maintain that simple is best. Anyone who understands trading will know that losing trades are inevitable, it's how they are handled in relation to winning trades that matters. Most lose money in this business because they concentrate all their efforts and energy into looking for a Holy Grail indicator under the misconception that as long as they can predict direction accurately then they will 'strike it rich'. These forums are living proof, the vast majority of posts relate to technical analysis, most of it extremely complex and totally unnecessary in my opinion.

For those who have doubts about analysis being a comparatively minor element of profitable trading perhaps they should read about Jacko the gorilla, here's an excerpt......

Mick



Courtesy of PRWeb:

January 2 2004--Famous gorilla Gorilla Jacko is well known among Dutch investors. His performance is tracked by the Dutch website www.beursgorilla.nl, which stands for “stock exchange gorilla”. Jacko’s portfolio consists of 10 stocks. Twice each month Jacko sells one position and buys a new one. Jacko picks stocks by selecting a labelled banana from 75 bananas which represent different Dutch stocks.
All changes in the portfolio are communicated to all members of the free mailing list of beursgorilla.nl. In 2003 the number of people who actively followed the portfolio rose to over 30.000. Numerous television shows and newspapers covered Jacko’s performance.

Better performance than top analists
Interestingly enough, Jacko has beaten Dutch top analists for the fourth year in a row as well. Each year five well known analists present their top five picks for the upcoming year. The return on their picks in each one of the last four years was lower than the return on Jacko’s portfolio.

Banks interested
A number of banks in The Netherlands have noticed the success of Jacko’s portfolio. One bank mentioned: “beating the major stock index for the fourth consecutive year can no longer be called coincidence.” They are currently looking into the possibility of introducing a new fund based on the gorilla’s picks.

Not the first succesful monkey
Jacko is not the first successful monkey on the stock exchange. In 1999, chimpansee Raven attracted world attention when his portfolio beat the Dow Jones by over 80%. In 2000 however, his portfolio performed much worse than the Dow Jones, mainly because it was based on numerous internet related stocks. Jacko has beaten the market in down- and up markets.

[TraderJuan]

Originally Posted by MickMason

Hi Russ

Trading is as hard or as easy as you want to make it!

The 'Can it get any easier' thread is in the 'Charting & Technical Analyst' forum and therefore the 'easier' relates to charting and technical analysis, I don't think it's misleading in the slightest. By the way, trading Fibonacci levels is not a technique I devised, it's been around for a long while and is no secret. I stress many times that accurately predicting market direction is not all it takes to be a profitable trader, there is more to it, but for technical analysis I maintain that simple is best. Anyone who understands trading will know that losing trades are inevitable, it's how they are handled in relation to winning trades that matters. Most lose money in this business because they concentrate all their efforts and energy into looking for a Holy Grail indicator under the misconception that as long as they can predict direction accurately then they will 'strike it rich'. These forums are living proof, the vast majority of posts relate to technical analysis, most of it extremely complex and totally unnecessary in my opinion.

For those who have doubts about analysis being a comparatively minor element of profitable trading perhaps they should read about Jacko the gorilla, here's an excerpt......

Mick



Courtesy of PRWeb:

January 2 2004--Famous gorilla Gorilla Jacko is well known among Dutch investors. His performance is tracked by the Dutch website www.beursgorilla.nl, which stands for “stock exchange gorilla”. Jacko’s portfolio consists of 10 stocks. Twice each month Jacko sells one position and buys a new one. Jacko picks stocks by selecting a labelled banana from 75 bananas which represent different Dutch stocks.
All changes in the portfolio are communicated to all members of the free mailing list of beursgorilla.nl. In 2003 the number of people who actively followed the portfolio rose to over 30.000. Numerous television shows and newspapers covered Jacko’s performance.

Better performance than top analists
Interestingly enough, Jacko has beaten Dutch top analists for the fourth year in a row as well. Each year five well known analists present their top five picks for the upcoming year. The return on their picks in each one of the last four years was lower than the return on Jacko’s portfolio.

Banks interested
A number of banks in The Netherlands have noticed the success of Jacko’s portfolio. One bank mentioned: “beating the major stock index for the fourth consecutive year can no longer be called coincidence.” They are currently looking into the possibility of introducing a new fund based on the gorilla’s picks.

Not the first succesful monkey
Jacko is not the first successful monkey on the stock exchange. In 1999, chimpansee Raven attracted world attention when his portfolio beat the Dow Jones by over 80%. In 2000 however, his portfolio performed much worse than the Dow Jones, mainly because it was based on numerous internet related stocks. Jacko has beaten the market in down- and up markets.

LOL, Great article Mick. Someone has been making a monkey out of me.

[elmagd2000]

Mick, this brings us back to "Rolling the toss" trading..
It may be a better alternative anyway . . .

[MickMason]

Originally Posted by elmagd2000

Mick, this brings us back to "Rolling the toss" trading..
It may be a better alternative anyway . . .

lol, it may well be! Toss a coin and manage the trade, it's certainly cheaper than 75 bananas anyway!

Mick

[Leib]

I also used to trade from home - problem was my wife thinks I'm available no matter how much discussion persuasion screaming on my part to prove otherwise. The distractions were bad enough but the bad vibes left me in foul moods that definitely hurt my decision making abilities.

Like Fx_sniper - I simply had to get out- solution - I've been renting a cheap office room all to myself for over a year now - ahhhhhh peace of mind.

My wife also considers herself a "night person" which means no early rising for her nor my 5 year old daughter so they can't make it to the bus and ALWAYS have to be driven to school. Could no longer stand having to get this duty. I just give her the keys, told her "If she can't get her act together in the morning then SHE has to drive my daughter to school" Now I can take the 5 minute walk to my office early in the AM (NY time) to catch the early afternoon European session and the NY open, completely undisturbed - I don't mind too much taking her telephone calls cause I'm somehow more objective when discussing things with her in this less personal manner.

Hope these ideas help someone else out there, good luck trading all!

[birdjaguar]

One advantage Apes have on humans is that animals not living in a zoo are fully in touch with their intuition. Not only do we overanalyze relative to the Ape, but we have also created a society that greatly diminishes our intuitive connection. I have learned the hard way that my intuition, as it pertains to trading comes several emotions later than the first impulse. I am contrarian by nature with impulses to go against the trend. Impulsive trading can be defused through writing it down. After 2 or 3 impulses or waves, which used to be bad trades, I start waiting for my intuition to show me a reversal. This is only part of my trading strategy but I thought it might be helpful to some who are still working on harmonizing with the inner self, which brings about a calm ability to perceive profitable opportunities in Forex.

[stronghand]

Originally Posted by birdjaguar

One advantage Apes have on humans is that animals not living in a zoo are fully in touch with their intuition. Not only do we overanalyze relative to the Ape, but we have also created a society that greatly diminishes our intuitive connection. I have learned the hard way that my intuition, as it pertains to trading comes several emotions later than the first impulse. I am contrarian by nature with impulses to go against the trend. Impulsive trading can be defused through writing it down. After 2 or 3 impulses or waves, which used to be bad trades, I start waiting for my intuition to show me a reversal. This is only part of my trading strategy but I thought it might be helpful to some who are still working on harmonizing with the inner self, which brings about a calm ability to perceive profitable opportunities in Forex.

I just finished a book a few weeks ago called "mean markets and lizard brains". Pretty good book. The author basically describes humans as having two brains, one of which is the "lizard brain". He goes on to say why the lizard brain was great for our ancestors to help us reproduce, find food and shelter, but also explained why it almost always did the wrong thing when it came to trading.

Its really a book on economics, that he infused with psychology. But it was a decent read.