Is cable in for a trouncing?

[psytrader]

Earlier this month I estimated that cable would bounce off of 8000 and extend into the 8500 range. Needleess to say, that estimation has been blown to davy jones locker. Fortunately, I trade the 10 min charts and dont have my pants down for 300 pips.Admittedly, most of the reason for this is that I dont have the stones to sit on top of a -35 pip position with my level of experience. (about 18 months)

Im interested in the hourly charts so that I can eventually swing trade like stocks and not spend as much time at this monitor.


We are now sitting at the support from september of 04. The obvious fundamental change with the BOE and FOMC is part of the story.

What do you think are other factors, if any?

Regards,

Psy

[MickMason]

Originally Posted by psytrader

We are now sitting at the support from september of 04. The obvious fundamental change with the BOE and FOMC is part of the story.

What do you think are other factors, if any?

Regards,

Psy

I think 1.76/1.75 are critical levels. We've got some big events next week, MPC, ECB, G8, NFP....

The market seems to be totally focused on interest rates, eventually I think US fundamentals will come back into the picture. Now whether investors sell dollars and buy European currencies is debateable, there is a view that money will go into precious metals, in particular gold.

My bet? I wouldn't like to short from these levels for anything other than intraday, I just can't see this dollar strength lasting.

Just my 2c, I guess I'll need change

Mick

[psytrader]

Interesting to see the same Interest Rate Hype on the other side of the pond as well.

When is the next BOE decision? All the sources I see on the net are heavily US centric. Ill hear something on bloomberg, but it would be nice to mark it on the calendar in Advance.

Im still intraday. I havent found the nerves to sit on a trade more than two hours.

If were still sitting on this level on Friday, the NFP could be a wild ride. The sources I watch predict 175-180k. ( back on pace from may)

Can we start a thread on other comodities or is this just for forex?

cheers

psy

[MickMason]

Originally Posted by psytrader

When is the next BOE decision?

If were still sitting on this level on Friday, the NFP could be a wild ride. The sources I watch predict 175-180k. ( back on pace from may)

Can we start a thread on other comodities or is this just for forex?

cheers

psy

BOE is Thursday at 11am GMT
ECB is also Thursday, at 11.45 GMT and their statement at 12.30
NFP, well you probably already know that, 12.30 GMT on Friday

There's some good calendars about, there's one at http://www.gftforex.com/resources/calendar/calendar.asp

I can't see why there shouldn't be a thread/forum about commodities, it's all relevant! Start one, if you get banned you'll know I was wrong


Mick

[Habib]

Originally Posted by MickMason

BOE is Thursday at 11am GMT
...
Start one, if you get banned you'll know I was wrong
Mick

I like your sense of humor (or is it humour), Mick.

On the cable being laid under-ground, I don't think the good old Reagan's days of cable at 1.03 will ever come back. It has already over-sagged and being pulled back over-head is over-due IMHO, especially after it has accomplished the heavy task of dragging Euro below 1.2000. However, I have been wrong before more often than not.

[psytrader]

Thanks Mick

That calendar is the most comprehensive Ive seen yet.

psy

[psytrader]

Originally Posted by Habib

I like your sense of humor (or is it humour), Mick.

On the cable being laid under-ground, I don't think the good old Reagan's days of cable at 1.03 will ever come back. It has already over-sagged and being pulled back over-head is over-due IMHO, especially after it has accomplished the heavy task of dragging Euro below 1.2000. However, I have been wrong before more often than not.

Do you say this for economic reasons or because a weaker currency (cable) leads to a positive COT on the USD and affects the weaker EUR by proxy?

psy

[Habib]

Originally Posted by psytrader

Do you say this for economic reasons or because a weaker currency (cable) leads to a positive COT on the USD and affects the weaker EUR by proxy?

psy

The latter. You know the same old scenario of one commodity (or stock) moving in sympathy with another related one.
P.S. I assumed the question was related to my comment about cable fall dragging euro below 1.2000. Well it contributed to it at least if not caused it.