August 8th - GPB/USD Rally

[tommygunn]

Agree with 4xfool. I gave up trying to understand why the market reacts the way it does. One really can not pick which way the market will go when an economic data is released or if some type of news event hits the wires. You get that false move up or down and then the market goes whatever way it wants to go. Why fight it? You hear this all the time, "The trend is your friend." Go with the flow. Let the market tell you where it wants to go, not you or some analyst at Goldman Sach, Citibank or JP Morgan. There will always be two sides of the story. One person will interpret the data this way and the other that way. Who is right? Who cares as long as I am the right side of the trade.

[rollingstone]

Soheilsb wasn't trying to second guess the data release or fight against it, he just wanted to know why it happened.

[traderone]

Originally Posted by 4xfool

Honestly, does it ever really matter WHY??? Really??? All that really matters is that we should be in the move when it happens. Trade in the NOW!

Well by golly 4xfool, I WAS in the move!!! Course, the wrong way

[4xfool]

Sorry to hear that. What made you go short? hat were you looking at or seeing?? Just curious. I was in it....long

[4xfool]

Originally Posted by rollingstone

Soheilsb wasn't trying to second guess the data release or fight against it, he just wanted to know why it happened.

I understand that. I just think its a waste of mental energy.
Albert Einstein had only one arrangement of clothing; same jacket, shirt and pants, every day (he had a few of each but the same color, etc). He wanted to not waste mental energy on things like deciding what to wear. Thats kind of how I view "why" the market moved. Why waste the mental energy...right?

[traderone]

Glad to hear you were the right direction.

Oh it was just the normal way I have to outwit myself. I was studying the 4 hr chart and thought we were having a pullback in the new downward trend.

I'm so chart weary now that I think anything can look like anything anymore.

[Gamma_Jammer]

Originally Posted by 4xfool

I understand that. I just think its a waste of mental energy.
Albert Einstein had only one arrangement of clothing; same jacket, shirt and pants, every day (he had a few of each but the same color, etc). He wanted to not waste mental energy on things like deciding what to wear. Thats kind of how I view "why" the market moved. Why waste the mental energy...right?

Have to disagree. Studying news releases and the market's reaction to them is. imho no less valid than technical analysis. The main reason people fail though, is that they expect everything to be black and white. They say 'Payrolls median 175k, actual figure 100k, therefore eur/usd MUST go up. Life just isn't that simple. But this holds true for all types of market analysis. If there was any infallible method out there everyone would pile into it until it didn't work any more.

The main thing is to try and get a handle on the human aspect of the market. But you can't do that unless you are looking at the same info as the majority of the market. And that means data releases, tech levels, positioning / 'contextual' info, the works.

GJ

[Soheilsb]

Originally Posted by Gamma_Jammer

Have to disagree. Studying news releases and the market's reaction to them is. imho no less valid than technical analysis. The main reason people fail though, is that they expect everything to be black and white. They say 'Payrolls median 175k, actual figure 100k, therefore eur/usd MUST go up. Life just isn't that simple. But this holds true for all types of market analysis. If there was any infallible method out there everyone would pile into it until it didn't work any more.

The main thing is to try and get a handle on the human aspect of the market. But you can't do that unless you are looking at the same info as the majority of the market. And that means data releases, tech levels, positioning / 'contextual' info, the works.

GJ

I completley agree with your view, and also with rollingstone's , I wanted to know the cause of the rally , to know what power and what kind of news has triggered the human's side of the market to act that way, I think by trying to understand and learn from these moves now, we will be a better and more successful trader in the future, 'cause people will probably act the same way the next time market news like this one goes on their news alert screens.
This is not a war between Foundamental and Technical analysts, it's just trying to get favor from both sides. I also approve tommygunn's view, yes we have to go with the trend , but catching the trend at the right time is as imoportant as going with it , each one of us knows that we can go with trend but at a wrong time , and that will just lead us to be loser and not a winner.
It's really funny the way this market moves, yes we have millions of people who can move this market by their thoughts of the happening of the future, but when I see a move like that just because of the release of PMI's data it makes me think , why the same move doesnt happen for the USD ,despite the good data and news from USA , in the previous weeks. Does the market just want to ignore the USD ? By 4xfool's idea , it's a waste of mental energy, it may be true, but trying to think of the movements that happen in the market and to find the reason behind them, we will lose something (mental energy) for a better cause (Knowledge) , and in my opinion , that's a really good use of our mental energy.

Thank you all
Soheil