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Old 04-10-2003, 18:49   #1
KidForex
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The Best Postive Carry Trade out there today

With AUD rates amongst the highest in the developed world (approx. 4.75 %) and JPY rates the lowest (Approx .15 %) the best trade out there is a LONG AUD/JPY position.

A 6 month AUDPY Fwd is currently paying approx 180 pips
A 12 month Swap pays Approx 350 pips...

Add any additional capital gain to the trade on top of that and this is a real winner

This trade is also attractive becuase not only is the trend AUDJPY up, but the trend in AUDUSD is also clearly UP

Also USDJPY has been beaten down so much (USDJPY in my opinion was oversold when it broke the key technical level of 115) that the AUDJPY cross will benefit from any imminent retracements higher in USDJPY

Buy AUDJPY at around 75 - Hold it for a few months until the mid 80s and count your USDs ....

Anyone share my opinion? Comments?

All feedback welcome!
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Old 04-10-2003, 22:10   #2
mishak
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Exclamation

Good idea, KidForex

If you have 74,000,000 yen or can borrow this amount at 0.15% you may sell JPY and buy AUD. If you do not hedge this closing side you probably will collect the interest rates difference.

However, I am not so sure about USD/JPY is oversold. It was going down on fundamental reasons. Of course, Japan is now done with its H1 repatriation and exporters will not sell USD so much. But, the economy of Japan is in not so bad shape and market has good expectations for Japanese stocks. Nikkey-225 is on uptrend and global investors are likely to continue buying them. I believe that was the major reason of breaking 115 resistance.

From tehcnical view, USD/JPY is on downtrend from 135 since Ferbuary-2002. If you plot the channel down, it points to 103. So there is real opportunity for JPY to test 102 this November and big four years old low 101.20 .

As for AUD/JPY, it is in correction mode with support at 74-73.80. Depending on you time frame, you may call it downtrend.
So, better try to get in AUD/JPY long position at this level.
If, however, AUD/JPY breaks 73.80 resistance, it may go down to its up-channel support at 71.

So what?

Just simple AUD/USD long looks better for me. It broke 0.6750 resistance and probably will test 0.70 and then 0.74 in long term.

It is your call, KidForex. I am not so sure about the second leg of your cross going up in several months.

NOTE: it is a long term view. Short-term traders should not pay attention !

Take care

P.S. btw, you will count your JPYs, not USDs after closing this position.

Last edited by mishak : 04-10-2003 at 22:20.
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Old 19-10-2003, 11:50   #3
KidForex
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AUDJPY UPDATE: 76.00 hit, 79 next

Quick Update -

This trade is beginning to work - 76 has been hit (vs. 75 entry point), with the next resistence at 79.

If 79 breaks, watch out!

And everyday, I get my extra pips on this trade with each daily rollover! This trade will not make you rich overnight, but rather it is a slow steady and solid trade.

I hope it is working out for you too
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Old 30-10-2003, 05:19   #4
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AUD/CHF carry trade

AUD and EUR have been tightly correlated in the past 3 years.

EUR/JPY looks to be in the start of a downtrend, (i.e. weekly EMA down, short term EMA crossed below long term EMA).

Thus AUD/JPY looks likely to decline.

Thus AUD/JPY carry not that good.

What about AUD/CHF carry trade?
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Old 30-10-2003, 05:45   #5
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On long AUD/CHF

Receive about 4% p.a. on AUD

Pay about 2% p.a. on CHF

Make about 2% p.a. on rollovers

On 100, 000 AUD/CHF long

200 points p.a. +/- capital gain or loss

Worth the risk?

I prefer to look at negatives first

Cons

Australia's current account deficit, (per person about the same as USA)

Switzerland’s current account surplus

Switzerland’s safe haven status, (worse case: markets close over weekend, nuclear bomb, AUD/CHF opens much lower Monday)

Pros

Interest rate differential

AUD/CHF trending up

EUR/CHF trending up

Switzerland is readily losing its tax haven/bank security status, (i.e. banks and government are starting to give out information, OECD tax taskforce)
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Old 30-10-2003, 05:47   #6
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One con I missed

High spreads
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Old 30-10-2003, 10:01   #7
KidForex
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AUD/JPY Update

77 now has been hit - This trade is now up 2 yen in almost 2 months + approx 60 additional rollover pips...

One additional point: The top end of the downsloping trendline has now been broken on this trade - Further confriming the UPtrend)

Good Luck

Last edited by KidForex : 01-07-2004 at 23:37.
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Old 31-10-2003, 02:43   #8
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Best of luck with long AUD/JPY

To my view the AUD goes where the EUR goes at the moment, just look out for the EUR/JPY cross crashing the party.
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