A bit of a rant...trying to keep it SIMPLE

[G550]

It seems that since I began browsing (6 or so weeks ago) these forums others similar to it a common belief appears to be that of developing a good trading system. Whilst I'm not opposed to such a philosophy it seems as though a great deal of pressure is exacted upon those with less experience the idea beyond profitable trading is a proven system. Perhaps it might be the word "system" that turns me off. It seems so rigid structured like some complex program developed by mathematical wizards computer scientists alike. Whatever happend to just observing the news watching trends following an indicator or two? I guess this could be interpreted as a system as well. It just seems like there are a lot of people out there either trying to develop waiting for someone to develop this gr scheme to steal profits the market. Has simplicity been lost in all of this?

Does anyone around here keep it dead simple walk away with enough of a profit not necessarily to make a living but to be proud of what they accomplished? In the 3 weeks I've been demo trading my methodology has been relatively simple. I know I know...it's just a demo acct but I'm talking about the information I use to enter a trade. It seems "simple". That is my methodology not this whole FX thing.

Sorry for the rant...just bored at work.
-G550

[TRADE]

The best thing you can do is keep it simple the simpler the better but anything less than simple is just being simple.

hope that riddle makes sense keep practicing on your demo account.

the word system can mean anything does to different people collectively it is just the process which formulates your trade decisions (buy/sell) governs your trade outputs (profit/loss). dont think of it as being rigid unless you are wanting to develop something automated mechanical it doesnt have to be rigid if you dont want it to.

in due time you will discover what type of trader you are may even find yourself having to develop something rigid to maintain your discipline. just remain flexible open to new ideas at this point untill you discover what works doesnt for you.

then just be rigid on the things that do work flexible on the things that dont actually drop them like a lead weight.

regards

[G550]

Thanks for the words Trade. For now I like simple. Who knows what tomorrow will bring.

[easttech]

A trading system is just a trading strategy. No matter what "system" you use you can make it complicated or simple. I prefer simple. Screw all the indicators this macd that macd crossing over the other. I just watch price how it behaves over a certain period of time. I also use a very simple 60ema with a 10 pip b again watch the way price behaves. Price is king. Macd Stochastics all that stuff just makes it more confusing it’s really never worked for me anyway. If price is oversold for example it can still be sold sold sold some more.

A system is what you use for your trading style. The other key is to be consistent use good money management. Don’t bet 1 lot here 2 lots there 4 lots somewhere else. Stay consistent keep to your trading rules you will be more successful over time. Discipline wins this game so many people are undisciplined that’s why they lose money.

[G550]

Well said Easttech. I appreciate your opinion. I have noticed it is very very easy to be consumed with indicators or technical analysis in general. I have started to focus more on the big picture allowing my technical analysis to simply confirm my notions not necessarily influence the direction I choose.

[easttech]

As I write this keep this in mind for Monday. Todays NFP came out better than expected but other numbers came out conflicting we had some revisions as well. Numbers were all over the place. So right now the USD is getting crushed this is turning into a big move day. Statistically that means Sunday into Monday could also be a big day as well.

[G550]

EastTech-

Would you mind elaborating on the other "conflicting" numbers? I listened to the NFP news on my satellite radio although I did not take a demo trade (no access to my system) I would have suspected the dollar to rally a bit. It seems there were some spikes that dipped low but now it has reversed is taking a hit as you have mentioned.

Was it the ISM figures that kept the dollar bearish? I know unemployment numbers were in line with what was expected. Perhaps I'm mistaken.

Thanks.

[easttech]

Sure. This is my TTN feed:

*NOV CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: 132K V 100KE; CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING PAYROLLS: -15K V -15KE
- prior Change in Nonfarm Payrolls revised to 79K 92K
- prior Change in Manufacturing Payrolls revised to -44K -39K

*NOV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.5% V 4.5%E

*NOV AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS: 0.2% V 0.3%E; AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS: 33.9 V 33.9E
- no revisions

Data Household Survey

Civilian Labor (000s) 151799 151998 152381
Change 101 199 383
Employment(000s) 144850 145287 145564
Change 271 437 277
Unemployment (000s) 6949 6711 6817
Change -170 -238 106
Not in Labor (000s) 77621 77677 77524
Change 152 56 -153
Persons Who Want Job 4658 4782 4829
Change -260 124 47


US BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS REPORTS THAT THE BIRTH/DEATH ADJUSTMENT WAS +29K IN NOV. VERSUS +73K IN OCT.; THE AMOUNT OF WORKERS NOT AT WORK BECAUSE OF WEATHER WERE +89K IN NOV. VERUS +75K IN OCT.



We also have the UMich numbers coming out at 10am EST. I dont think it will help the dollar at this point but I'll be watching:

PREVIEW: DEC. PRELIMINARY UNIV. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE DUE OUT AT 10AMET.
- consensus expectation is 92.0e vs 92.1 prior
- note: most estimates are in a range of 90 to 93.5