A bit of a rant...trying to keep it SIMPLE

[G550]

So was it the revised numbers Nov NFP manufacturing that was the impetus behind further weakening of the dollar?

Thanks for all the info btw.

[easttech]

It sure looked like it. I have been at this for a very long time I'm still amazed at how revisions can trump everything. The UMich numbers came out a little worse than expected so the USD could weken further going into the weekend:

*DEC PRELIMINARY U. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 90.2 V 92.0E
- Dec preliminary 1-year inflation expectation median 3.0% v Nov final 3.0%

[G550]

I see. Hey man thanks a lot for your swift replies. I really appreciate it.

-G550

[TRADE]

the best trading systems are the which are simple....the fewer the rules the better in my opinion.

if you can manage to devise a system on the premise that you dont will never know what will happen next you will free yourself a huge burden that is the psycological apsects of trading.

i have followed these simple truths my research which has helped develop my system/method experience practice an ubundance of reading.

1. I do not know what is happening now.
2. I will not know what will happen next.
3. I do not know where the trend is where it will turn or whether it will continue in whatever direction it is supposed to be going ultimately what is a trend? if i knew what the trend was would it still be a trend a larger perspective.
5. if i knew what the trend was where I was in that trend what tend following is all about then it must have started before I could identify it as being a trend (read points
1 & 2 again)
4. I do not care if i make money now or later.
5. I do not care about time or how long it will take to reach my destination or the journey taken to realise my outcomes.
6. read points 1 & 2 again.
7. if i dont make enough money to cover my loses I will not be able to profit trading. ( read points 4 & 5 again)

This is why keeping things simple is better. you cannot complicate points 1 & 2 ultimatelly the deductive conclusion of these points. free yourself the psycological burden of trading this is instilled through studying technical analysis in great depth.

[G550]

Interesting point Trade but don't you think that there is a point where one can in fact identify which direction the market is or may move? Afterall fundamental data can surely provide "clues". Of course one can never be absolutely certain. Perhaps it's this uncertainty that you are touching on.

[TRADE]

Originally Posted by G550

Interesting point Trade but don't you think that there is a point where one can in fact identify which direction the market is or may move? Afterall fundamental data can surely provide "clues". Of course one can never be absolutely certain. Perhaps it's this uncertainty that you are touching on.

your right however I am a technical trader have not ever taken much notice to fundementals the miniscule intraday movements do not concern me. in the sense that I will enter exit on an announcement.

I have not traded a single news announcement in my trading life prefer to stay well away so I am not qualified to comment or formulate an opinion just that it doesnt suit my style of trading but ultimately it does determine it over the longer periods. but this is evident in the higher time frames the charts themselves.

uncertaintly can be your friend or foe it depends again how you tackle it. but yes as you mentioned uncertainty was what I was touching on complete utter uncertaintly.

I Know accept that whatever knowledge I have will amass is that I know nothing....

[static]

I think way too many people come into this thinking that they can browse the forms find some magic indicator or combination of indicators that will let them sit around on the beach while their computer keeps adding zeros to their bank account. After six months a blown overleveraged account or two they give up walk away. So it goes for 60-70% of people anyway. There are those who will succeed at trading after devoting some time ( money) to the markets but they are relatively few my experience.

Anyway that’s my rant. Don’t take it as an attack I’m just expressing some frustration at what I think is the same situation as you. As for an actual trading system I’ve given up on indicators long ago. The only indicators that I use at the moment are pivot points to identify possible S/R levels a 21 EMA with +/-55 levels because price tends to stay within or immediately return to this area about 95% of the time. I only use them for exits not entry.

Personally I am a fan of patterns if you look at some ps you will see the same thing happening day in day out. For instance the 24hr consolidation/volatility period on the Cable. Maybe I can’t tell which direction it will go but I know when it will move. You also have to come up with a trading style that will accommodate your needs. If you are an active trader who can stay in front of the computer all the time you will be looking for something different than someone who exclusively uses limit orders to try catch pips while you are at work/school/sleep for example. Breakouts have worked well for me but this last move the dollar highlighted some weak points in my strategy that need to be worked out.

Sorry if that’s a little vague but keep looking. You know "the truth is out there…"

[G550]

Originally Posted by TRADE

your right however I am a technical trader have not ever taken much notice to fundementals the miniscule intraday movements do not concern me.

That's quite interesting. Why is it that you stay away fundamentals? For example let me offer a sceanrio: tomorrow morning the BOJ will meet to discuss interest rates a possible rate hike. Let us assume that they do in fact raise interest rates the dollar falls against the yen as a result of this news. It could be the BoJ or the BoE or the ECB or even the Fed. It doesn't matter. What matters is that this type of news seems can potentially have a large effect on market conditions. If one were listening to these reports live for example they could short the USD/JPY possibly cash in on some points. I think you get the idea here. So essentially what I'm trying to say is that there are important news bulletins that are published regularly based on the results of those publications one can use that info to their benefit.

Do you agree or disagree?