Cable - GBP/USD - EW / Projections

[vudragon]

Hello there,

I have been posting a lot on the Cable forum on www.dailyfx.com
The interaction there has been slow of late, so I was hoping to get more intereaction over here..

Here are my recent posts over there on the current moves in cable:

As I expected, we could not get much past 8630ish until we got a retrace. ..though the retrace was a bit further than I thought, but not beyond what I considered critical for a continued northern move.

My longs @8542 was triggered. Still have a final long @8510 for a test that I now doubt gets triggered.

Cable bounced off of the Upwards TL created by the 8375, 8405, and 8439 Lows of the recent sessions.

I have shorts on a break of 8500 just in case.


Edit:
As long as cable does not break below 8480/70, then there is a good chance that it will target 8690ish on this next move up.

My final Long entry is @8490 (this was moved down from 8510).


Edit:
I also have an additional Long awaiting a northern breakout @8560.


Edit:
Cable just finished a Contracting/Symmetrical Triangle on its previous formation. It appears as if may now be doing the reverse--an Expanding Symmetrical Triangle Formation.

..if this has any validity, then 8481ish should be the completion of Wave b.

Wave A was 119pips, so Wave C should be approx a factor of 1.618, which gives me a target of 8691.

Hope I am not just seeing things...


Edit:
Final Long entry filled @8490 on this decent. Also have some Short Hedges that should be stopped out on a move past 8560.

Hope to see some of ya for the ride north!


Edit: 8525 (1pm)
The Expanding Symmetrical Triangle or perphaps Expanding Flat Correction is starting to look like it might have some validity since cable bounced off of 8479. The Hammer that it left behind on the hourly and 2hr charts look promising for a ride back up.


How I came up with it: (of course this was after it shot through my initial 8560 target)

Wave A was 119 pips and I projected Wave B to be a factor of 1.382 (164pips), which somehow came out exactly where it bounced off of ( 8643 - 164 = 8479 ). ..somehow I previously came out with 8481, but why split hairs...


Edit: 8517
This 8530 Resistance lvl has held up quite nicely today... once broken, I would expect it to become a fairly strong support if retested w/in 24hrs of the breaking.


Edit: 8501
Took profit on my Short hedges from 8625, @8595. ..since it seems to be having a hard time breaking thru a secondary TL. I will open new Short Hedges when it retests 8630. This will have very tight SL, prob 15-20pips.
***Bad Call!!!***


Edit: 8478
Eek.. Cable is desperately trying to break out of the Accending Triangle that I see on the 4hr chart. The Triangle starts at the low of 8305 on 11/5 and top of 8616 on 11/8. Simply connect the following lows and highs to see it.

The past few days saw Cable try to break out of the top of the Triangle unsuccessfully. ..I guess it is now returning the favor at the bottom of the Triangle. I imagine that a SL @ 8440/30 would be safe of a false breakout to the South Side. A false breakout to the south should not break under the line by more than approx 20pips, since this is what happened on the top end this morning.


Edit: 8510 (~10pm)
K all.. back from some playtime...
The bounce was expected and refreshing... I trade from 2 diff platforms and they give me diff prices.. GFT tells me that Wave A was 120pips and the move to 8460 (Wave B) was 166pips, hence Wave B was approx 1.383 X Wave A... tit for tat...

The bounce was the important thing here... at least conforting for me.

I still have not hedged since 8530 has not been tested... in my parrallel universe, it will be tested and I anticipate my Short hedge being stopped out! Since this is a very small SL, it will be inconsequential.

Cya @ 8690!

Cheers.

..BTW, I counted the little impluse waved down from the high.. and it looks complete to me.. look @30min chart for a better view of it.

Also, I am expecting either a large corrective wave set or small impulse wave set up to meet my 8690ish target..

The corrective wave set would be easier to calculate.. if so, then expect a correction @ about 8587 to perhaps 8542 prior to reaching the target.

8566 (6am Fri)

Can't say that I am not happy with the move up. Cable also started to retrace very close to my 8587 target (8590). This looks more like an impulse wave set developing to me though.. and it is prob in the middle of Wave 3, if so. ..it might not retrace to my 8542 target prior to assaulting the previous high. ..if it is an impulse set, then there is a good chance that Wave 4 will begin around the previous high.

..in any event, I have moved all my SL up to insure some profit.


Edit:
If we truly are in Wave 3, then I see it potentially completing at around 8620ish after a bit closer examination.

I will be taking out Short Hedges for hopefully scalping instead at these lvls, with tight SL of course.


Edit: 8605
My target of 8612 was hit and my Short Hedge/Scalp has been triggered. Also took some profit on some of my longs and will be re-adding after my anticipated retrace. There is a tight SL in case I am wrong and it heads directly to 8690. ..my remaining longs will easily cover the small loss if so. 8617 is my exact potential turnaround/retrace point to begin Wave 4.


Edit: 8670
Long Re-Entries just triggered @8672. Expecting Wave 4 to end soon... if I am not off on it of course..

Keeping my Short hedges from 8612 for a bit longer to make sure that cable doesn't want to drop below 8540/30.

Hope you all are making out well on this bumpy ride...

oh yeah.. moved my hedge/scalping short SL to BE.


Edit: 8540
May have re-entered Longs a tad early.
Just didn't want to miss out on Wave 5 I guess...
Lets hope this baby turns back around soon. ..then again, that's why I hedge a lot.
The hedge account doesn't look too shabby.. kinda want to take profit on it.. just need to be assured that 8530 does not break.. I provided good resistance yesterday..


8570

Am actually hoping it gets retested again now.. so I can have another Long entry with what would be a very tight SL, hence very low risk... wasn't really prepared or thinking on the first test of it. A break back above 8580ish may not see a retest of it though.

...And this huge Hammer on the hourly from the Rejection does not look good for a retest.. but I could be wrong...


__________________
When times seem to be at their worst and there's no one left to turn to, stick to your convictions! ..You only have a few pennies left to lose anyways!

[vudragon]

K, had time to digest the numbers and this is what I am coming up with:

Wave 1: 58pips to 8527
Wave 2: 47pips to 8480
Wave 3: 132pips to 8612 ( 2.275 X Wave 1)
Wave 4: 78pips to 8534

Wave 5 projections :
1. Wave 3 X 1.382 = 182pips => 8716 target
2. Wave 3 X 1.500 = 198pips => 8732 target
3. Wave 3 X 1.618 = 213pips => 8747 target
4. Wave 3 X .618 = 81pips => 8615 target

My 8690 target might be a bit off... will move some of my TP lvls up a bit.

My likely choices are scenarios 1 and 2.

3 is a stretch and 4 might be voided here in a bit...

hope you guys find this useful...

[vudragon]

My Short Hedges are below 8500 and around the 8712 target.


Edit: 8560
Looking at the recent bounce off of 8552 and the previous 2 lows of the potential TL from the little consolidation period of the past session til now.. ..cable might not be going any lower.. (referring to hourly chart) cable has been making a Symmetrical Triangle from the 8616 high and 8534 low from the previous session. ..also a main reason I say it is going higher.

I just took out a small Long just in case my 8525 is not filled.


Edit: Impluse from 8469.
Am anticipating Wave 4 to begin at approx 8670ish prior to completing Wave 5 around 8720/30 due to the Symmetrical Triangle developing in the middle of Wave 3.


Edit: 8550
Was a little supprised that my 8525 Long was actually filled... but it is a good thing as long as 8515/10 does not break... The Symmetical Triangle now looks like a potential Flag formation, for those of us who are Long.


Edit: 8568 ~9:30am CT
With the potential Flag formation converging with the previous Symmetrical Triangle, this might be the last opportunity to Short w/ a tight SL if you want to go short...

There is a chance for cable to either move back towards 8530, which would prob be the last chance to go Long w/ tight SL.

...or Cable could simply finally break north from here. It first needs to take out 8580ish then 8600/10 (which is where I still have Long additions waiting for it.

GL all.


Edit: 8573
On a break of 8580ish, one of my Short Hedges will be Stopped out with minimal loss. The final hedge would be Stopped out on a break of the final resistance on move towards at least 8670ish.

..Word of encouragement to those currently Long with me. ..well at least am conforting myself in a sense:

Last 2 4hr Candles look like a Harami Cross/Dragon Fly followed by a Hammer bouncing off of the 8520/15 support.

The Daily Candle looks like it might be working on a Dragon Fly or Hammer as well.

The Daily Formation looks a lot like a potential Accending Triangle since the first breach of 8600.

BullBear Trend has Bull Trend ticking up in the top horizon and Bear Trend Ticking up form the bottom horizon.

MACD-Histogram in top horizon and ticking up. MACD line has crossed above its Signal line.

True Strength and Stochastic Momentum have both lines above Zero line and have positive slope.

..So buckle your seatbelts and enjoy the ride

[vudragon]

Hi all,

Glad you had major pippage, ? !!!

Woke up to a very nice morning myself. I cashed out on All my Longs!!!

Went short @8715 and have another @8730.

Cable could go all the way to 8760ish so be careful.

Looking for retrace back to 8672 or 8644 after it completes this wave as the first initial retracement marks. There is a good chance that I may only stall and perhaps continue down... but if US data totally sucks, then it might want to proceed up from here.

Will likely be straddling it once it retraces just to get more time to digest the movement/waves to see what might be instored next.


GL all!


Edit: 8690 ~9am
Even with bad US data, I am leaning towards the 8760ish mark as potentially capping Cables current wave set. I am still leaving my shorts near this mark regardless of the news release. ..based on the odd wave structure recently and the shallow retrace from 8725, this is really starting to look more like a corrective set (abc) rather than an impulsive.

For it to qualify as a potential impulsive wave set and the 8725 mark to signify the end of Wave 3, then I would expect a retrace back to either 8644 or 8624 to qualify as a potential Wave 4.

The data release may ultimately determine whether this will be a corrective set or continue on as a potential impulsive set...

The consolidation of the past 2 sessions really fogged this baby up!

It does sound logical for cable to retest the 8600 lvl within the next few session prior to continuing on to new highs regardless of what happens today. ..so don't get hope too high about a straight ride to say 8900.

Reason: Cable just broke out of a decent trend/pattern (Accending Triangle). Pros will likely try to bring it back into the previous pattern to catch amatuers off guard--thinking it might be smooth sailing now after the the breakout.. I am always wary of initial breakouts.

..just some of my thoughts here.


Edit: 8690 ~1:30pm
Those who are long cable atm for potential ride to 8760 might want to tighten your SL. This formation looks like it may be a reversal formation for the retrace that I have been anticipating.

I still have shorts above 8720 in the event it wants to go probing for SL on weak shorts.

[vudragon]

Edit: 8671 ~2:30pm
I am seeing a Bearish Divergence on my 4hr chart on my Stoch Momentum and TSI indicators... if cable can't rally to 8760 to fix this divegence sometime soon, then there is a good chance that it may drop down to 8624 as a minimum once momentum takes a hold of it due to the divergence. My other indicators also telling me to take profit on longs bf it is too late as well.

My Long entries have been moved down. ..and will be holding my shorts prob until around 8600. If this is tested, then I expect some kind of bounce off of it.

..not trying to sway ya or anything.. ..rather it test 8760 so that I can build up more shorts for the ride down


Edit: 8686 ~4:30pm
The move from 8726 to 8661 was 65pips. If cable drops from where it just bounced off of (8693) a total of 65 pips, then expect it to finish this abc corrective at approx 8628.

[vudragon]

Chunnel may try to break back into the upward TL which lays around 7024-30 depending on how long it takes to try to take it out on the 4hr chart. This pesky Cross has been levitating for quite a while now. ..so trying to break back into the trend sounds like very plausible.

..if so, then expect Fiber to be a bit stronger for a breif period.. this could mean that fiber might hit new highs.
I do expect a failure to break back into the trend... it really looks like it has topped out for a while.

Otherwise the chunnel could be heading for 7150ish, but I really doubt this. Once it starts falling again, cable could be poised for larger gains.

[vudragon]

8676 ~ 8:30pm

Note: This is all void if Cable spikes to 8760ish directly from here.. if it does, then it will likely be done with whatever wave it is currently working on...

The recent 8726 high could qualify as the completion of a potential Corrective set from the recent 8469 low where:

Wave A = 143pips – 8469 to 8612
Wave B = 88pips – 8612 to 8524 (the wacky consolidation period)
Wave C = 202pips – 8524 to 8726 ( approx. Wave 1 X 1.382 )

If this is true, then the correction to my projected 8628 is likely completion of Wave A of a larger correction set or the completion of Wave 1 of a downward Impulsive set. ..with the former as my preferred choice.
If it is a correction set, then Wave B could possibly be a move from 8626 to 8686 for 60pips.


(Due to the Consolidation period falling under 8527, 8469 to 8527 can not be Wave 1)
If it is to be an Impulsive wave set, then it has likely just completed Wave 3 and working on Wave 4 atm where:

Wave 1 = 143pips – 8469 to 8612
Wave 2 = 88pips – 8612 to 8524 (the wacky consolidation period)
Wave 3 = 202pips – 8524 to 8726 ( approx. Wave 1 X 1.382 )

Wave 4 projection: 8726 to 8628 = 98pips
The move from 8726 to 8661 was 65pips. If cable drops from where it just bounced off of (8693) a total of 65 pips, then expect it to finish this abc corrective at approx 8628. ..this is still my best approximation of a potential Wave 4.
..Cable may be slowly Channeling down to this target atm.

Wave 5 projections:

8628 to 8752 for 124pips
8628 to 8771 for 143pips
8628 to 8804 for 176pips


A possibility exists that my Wave 5 targets are actually the projected completion of the Current Wave 3. ..if so, the projected completion of Wave 4 would then qualify as the completion of Wave B of a Corrective set that will complete Wave 3.
This would add a move of 8628 to 8830 for 202pips as a potential completion. This scenario is my least anticipated.

Confusing enough for ya? ..of course cable might shoot higher from here to spite me and to show that I did all this work for nothing

[vudragon]

Cable seems like it still has some Inertia pushing it gradually higher from the upwards momentum from the past 36hrs. It is still opening higher and closing higher on the 2hr chart.

I will not consider taking large shorts until 8850/60 or at least until there are 2 lower closes.

It may be running out of gas soon though, since it is not making convincing higher highs, but the prob is it's making higher lows though. Still not safe to short with less than 50-70pip SL in my estimation.

I took a small short @8821 w/ SL @8880 : to start building up my shorts. Have some more higher up, closer to 8860.


Edit: 8814 ~1pm
If 8825 is the high for the session, then a retrace to 8753ish is logical, and then perhaps 8709, the .382 Fibo of 8524 to 8825.

Once this wave completes, then cable should be done either Wave 3 or Wave 5 from the move up from 8469. The retrace should shed more light on which it was.


Edit: 8803 ~2pm
It might now be a bit safer to take out Shorts for Scalping or Hedging purposes only...

The 2 hour has generated Double Shooting Stars from the 8825 high, hence a shooting star on the 4hr charts. I anticipate a retrace to anywhere between 8770-8709 on the first wave if it has Truly Topped. ..if so, then this should be the beginning of Wave 4.

The ensuing smaller Wave 5 should complete at approx 9033 to complete the larger Entire Impulse wave set from 7744 low (this has been one huge Impulse!). ..see below.