Is cable in for a trouncing?

[psytrader]

precicely habib,

I was noticing that the COT data for the EUR is bouncing off a double top just as the cable is doing the same. This all taking place right in alignment with a double bottom COT on the dollar.

I have only be involved in forex about 18 months so Im not super confident about the signifigance.

All other fundamentals aside, would you see this as an ominous sign to spark a dollar thrust?

Granted COT is only looking at half of a pair,...given the chart pattern on the dollar I would see it as a "no brainer" for a bullish dollar.

Habib,...Mick,... your thoughts

PSY

[MickMason]

Intraday it looks like 1.7570 has held for now, perhaps a retrace up to 1.7670 (don't we have a gap to fill?) or maybe mid 1.77 then another go for 1.75. I would say sell into any minor rally to those levels if seen.

For Eur I'd say any retracement is a selling opportunity, resistance at 1.20 so selling around 1.1980 if seen should be a good risk for 1.1850.

After that? I'm not sure we can see further downside until after a correction, it's all gone too far too fast IMHO

Today being a US holiday it may be a thin market.


Mick

[MickMason]

.....sorry psy, that didn't really reply to your comment. I don't follow COT data so I can't offer an opinion, do you think it's a significant piece of the puzzle?

Mick

[psytrader]

Originally Posted by MickMason

.....sorry psy, that didn't really reply to your comment. I don't follow COT data so I can't offer an opinion, do you think it's a significant piece of the puzzle?

Mick

Well Mick,

I have only recently started looking at COT for forex so time will tell. I do see a high coorelation to the current change in COT to actual price movement so I am more than interested.

I view COT more as a "heads up this week" than an entry/exit.

As you say its a holiday in the US today so volume will be thiner than usual.
Im looking at a double top at 7630 as we speak. followed by a double bottom at 7550. Im guessing we might see some range until the asian session tomorrow. Im up on the first move of the asian session so Im going for a beer.

I was suprised to see that my broker is actually streaming quotes right now. I alomst wanted to call up and say "Its independance day,...for crying out loud go have a beer!" But then, Im the one who is up at 1 am watching the charts,..so I guess the joke is on me.

Regards

PSY

[Habib]

psy,

Like Mick, I too don't try to look too deep into COT data. I believe it represents the current picture and not a pre-cursor for future.
In fact if it shows too much bullishness one way, brace yourself for a surprise in the other direction.
I think the european currencies (Euro, Pound and Swissie) are due for a reasonable-size correction like 300-500 pips.
US dollar cannot sustain its strength much longer because it will soon start showing signs of the bad effect of its strength on the US economy. If it makes any further inroads, it will be because of euro problems and not its own greatness.
BTW: Happy 4th of July.

[MickMason]

Originally Posted by psytrader

I was suprised to see that my broker is actually streaming quotes right now. I alomst wanted to call up and say "Its independance day,...for crying out loud go have a beer!" But then, Im the one who is up at 1 am watching the charts,..so I guess the joke is on me.

lol, I'm having a day off too but I just can't stay away, if I don't start the day with Fibonacci and Moneytec it's like not having breakfast!

Too early for a beer here, it's 7am, but you have a good one


Mick

[psytrader]

Originally Posted by Habib

psy,

Like Mick, I too don't try to look too deep into COT data. I believe it represents the current picture and not a pre-cursor for future.
In fact if it shows too much bullishness one way, brace yourself for a surprise in the other direction.
I think the european currencies (Euro, Pound and Swissie) are due for a reasonable-size correction like 300-500 pips.
US dollar cannot sustain its strength much longer because it will soon start showing signs of the bad effect of its strength on the US economy. If it makes any further inroads, it will be because of euro problems and not its own greatness.
BTW: Happy 4th of July.

I completely agree with the correction part,...Im not so sure about 500 pips. At least not this week. On a short week, everyone and their brother will be waiting for Thurs and Fri. both of which are forecast to be more strong dollar sentiment. The BOE may prove me wrong, but I seriously doubt the NFP will put up another dismal 78k. Im thinking the FOMC may have used a sneek peek of this (or highly similar data) before their rate hike. JMHO

Im curious though, how many people in june 2003 (when the cable was at 6800) were saying,"oh this has to be it! the dollar cant possibly get any weaker."?

Happy Independance Day

PSY

[skseows]

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