Is cable in for a trouncing?

[verno]

Chicago Mercantile Exchange - ie pit traders

[MickMason]

Originally Posted by verno

I expect some people to be getting out within the range, and can only think they are waiting on tomorrows BoE meeting for Cable in particular.

Hi verno

The concensus for BoE and ECB is no change, do you still think there is a market question mark over what the BoE will do? I think the BoE minutes will be a mover but they're not out for a while after.....


Mick

[verno]

No, to be honest I think that they will both be unchanged, but I think the Short Sterling markets are pricing in a chance of a cut at some point in the next 6 months. Additionally I think people would like the ECB to cut rates, therefore if people are already short GBP and Eur they might think its worth holding over the decisions. A bit of a free option if they have riden a significant portion of the move down.

If they are both unchanged then I think we will see a bit of a rally in both Eur and GBP. That said I have been wrong plenty of times before!

[MickMason]

Originally Posted by verno

That said I have been wrong plenty of times before!

Join the club, me too!

[MickMason]

Maybe ISM in 10 minutes will be a chance to get in.....

[verno]

Long or short? Or just to get involved?

It might provide an idea of whats to come and how people are positioned.

[MickMason]

Originally Posted by verno

Long or short? Or just to get involved?

It might provide an idea of whats to come and how people are positioned.

Short on a spike up if the thing ever moves!

Eur might be a better bet.....scale into a short, there's rollover interest as well with Eur/Usd, probably worth building up a position.

[verno]

Interesting, I am more inclined to play it from the long side down here (so long as we don't make new lows).

But without that difference of opinions we wouldn't be able to trade!