Dear Bernadette

[rob]

Originally posted by jtb790
Dear Bernadette,

Having been in currency trading for over a year it's been my good fortune to be able to offer some assistance from time to time to beginners and those advancing.

There are a few rules I've always maintained that have never changed - these I've told everyone who has asked me personally or in general like on a public message board such as this one.

It
jtb

Hey overload,
having observed your forum interactions for a while just thought I'd congratulate you. You're mellow compared to a year ago.

[FXAnalytics]

Originally posted by KPcurrency
sorry, this is the Swiss Franc: larger spread larger target 9 pips

Its an interesting system; It's one of those things that comes down to comfort levels I guess. It would probably make me crazy, but on the flip side I'm sure a lot of traders couldn't sleep on open positions - I seem to get better rest when I've got money in the market than when I don't.

Keep grinding...

John

PS; Tim I don't feel haunted..

[jtb790]

Originally posted by Truville
jtb, the question of the moment is if you are credible.

No, the question of the moment is... which flag should I select next?

63 trades down... 37 more to go.



[You may change your flag next to your name once more only!]

[forex1]

Originally posted by jtb790
No, the question of the moment is... which flag should I select next?

Have you voted yet? Here

[Mark66]

Very Entertaining Thread

[TrendlineBreak]

jtb,

Why not post the results of the next 37 trades as you promised or are you waiting for a run to show 37 "trades" together.

You didn't really answer what I thought was a sensible question.

All I ask was why would you want to make 100 trades for lets say 300 pips profit, paying 300 pips in spread, when you could make the same 300 pips in the same market moves with 5 trades only paying 15 pips spread.

I just want to understand the logic.

Other thing I don't understand is how you and our old mate jaba can have the same ip address and the same computer name ?

[tim_nn]

Originally posted by KPcurrency
25 PIPS ARE YOU INSANE? There is no system or methodology that could surive trying to win 10 pips but risking 25.

Well, it certainly wouldn't be how I'd like to trade, myself, but your dogmatic attitude does your credibility here no favours at all, KP.

For the record, I have a former colleague who is now making a full-time trading Forex with a system, in daily use, with an 8-pip target and a 30-pip stop-loss.

His strike-rate is 91%, over the last 800 trades. Work the sums out for yourself.

In a field in which perhaps only 5% - 8% of people are successful at all, and perhaps only 1% - 2% of people manage to make a full-time living, it seems strange that you should consider someone like this to be necessarily "INSANE" (as you put it), doesn't it?

When I became a full-time trader, I found that keeping an open mind was very beneficial. Sentences that start off with the words "There is no system or methodology that ..." seem to me to display rather the opposite attitude. Does anyone really know enough about trading Forex to be able to make such a sweepingly broad denial?

[FXAnalytics]

Originally posted by tim_nn
Well, it certainly wouldn't be how I'd like to trade, myself, but your dogmatic attitude does your credibility here no favours at all, KP.

For the record, I have a former colleague who is now making a full-time trading Forex with a system, in daily use, with an 8-pip target and a 30-pip stop-loss.

His strike-rate is 91%, over the last 800 trades. Work the sums out for yourself.

In a field in which perhaps only 5% - 8% of people are successful at all, and perhaps only 1% - 2% of people manage to make a full-time living, it seems strange that you should consider someone like this to be necessarily "INSANE" (as you put it), doesn't it?

When I became a full-time trader, I found that keeping an open mind was very beneficial. Sentences that start off with the words "There is no system or methodology that ..." seem to me to display rather the opposite attitude. Does anyone really know enough about trading Forex to be able to make such a sweepingly broad denial?

Tim - I think I put KP on the defensive and didn't really mean too, but you've actually answered my question. My original example of a 10 pip winner with a 25 pip loss assumed that the 10 pips won was net; so there is -2.5:1 risk to reward in that scenario. As KP explained his trade, his stop is set at 10 and the net gain is closer to 5 (after spread) so the RR bumps up a little bit: -2:1.

What I was curious to know was how long the system had been in use and if it remianed profitable over a solid testing period. Your friends system has 800 trades so it has an error rate of 3.5%. Thats good - it means there is a relative certainty that it will continue to work in the future. At its current accuracy ratio of 91% its maintaining a 2.69:1 RR. This assumes all winners were 8pips and all losers were 30. In this setup if the accuracy ratio of the system falls to 78% the system will begin to lose money. In KB's example the system will remain profitable down to 67%. But the probability that KB's set up will be stopped out more often is greater as the stop level is closer; there is a greater likelyhood of whips as stops in any system get tighter.

I'm currently a little obsessed with stop because I think what we have been tought to do might actually be wrong. Cut your losses short and let your winners run is right in thoery; it implies we get out quickly if the trade isn't working. But how do you know if a trade isn't working if your stop is smack dab in the middle of your time frames average volatility? Normal price fluctuation is being wrong. I seem to have worked this out in my system but I can't be sure its the right thing for any one else.

The changes I've made have more to do with hold period than time frame traded. I do most of my analysis off a 2hr chart, but I will hold a trade at least through one session and often two. The sessions I trade (if I hold for two - both London and NY) almost always represent a period that captures the days entire volatility; so I look at daily ATR as a yard stick to place stops. My stops now are placed 1 daily ATR from my entry point. This foreced me to do two things - I had to reduce my trade size which lowered profitability and I had to stop getting out early. Its my inclination to want to grab a profit and run, but I know now with the smaller lot traded I have to let the trade really work. I'm rambling...

I just like to crunch numbers and look at how others do their thing; we all have a comfort zone and if we can make a living doing it then who cares what anybody thinks. I've always felt the more I consider another system or position the more I can add to my trading - its not my intention to rip any ones trade model I just like to explore and question.

John
fxanalytics