Does anyone else feel a big move is coming?

[faure]

Volatility is really low on many pairs, most noteably GbpUsd and AudUsd; both of which are forming ascending triangles (generally bullish), but my gut says they're both ready to break to the south. Higher prices just feel wrong right now and a very important factor which came into play today was the poor reaction to the record IFO. Most significantly though, was the stop triggering at 7940 on GbpUsd as a result of the false b/o.

[bobnat]

My intuition, combined with the Cots, has been telling me that a trend move is coming up, a big one, at least 1,000 points. As to which direction? I favor down, as do the comms. I've been waiting for a big down move for quite some time according to my EW count on the Weekly.

Nat

[lamode]

i have the feeling and i am looking for a big south break aswell, but i wont be surprise if cable touch 1.80 before the move. anyway, i think it has to break the 7750 first.

[faure]

Originally Posted by bobnat

My intuition, combined with the Cots, has been telling me that a trend move is coming up, a big one, at least 1,000 points. As to which direction? I favor down, as do the comms. I've been waiting for a big down move for quite some time according to my EW count on the Weekly.

Nat

So your EW count would classify the three waves up from 1650 as a correction? It doesn't look very impulsive but the downside might only be limited to 300 or 400 pips. I think the euro/usd is likely heading higher over the long term. I'll go out on a limb here and say 2050 will be reached in the next three or four weeks (maybe less) and 2000 is going to be critical as to whether or not we'll see 3000.

I'm very focused on how the inverse h&s pattern plays in the market. It's one of the key factors for my long term bullishness.

The comms almost always get it right and long dollar interest is very high on their side.

For now I've poistioned short both AudUsd and GbpUsd and have a long UsdChf. All that's left is to see how our opinions play out.

[bobnat]

Originally Posted by faure

So your EW count would classify the three waves up from 1650 as a correction? It doesn't look very impulsive but the downside might only be limited to 300 or 400 pips.

Well, it's a matter of what you think the move from the high to 1650 was. Was it the complete correction to the 4 year bull move? It's a picture perfect 5 wave, that's for sure. At it's lowest it still comes up short to the 382 retracement though. And A waves are 5 waves.

One analysis calls for looking at it as an A wave. The upward move from 1650 is a correction, albeit not a very good looking B wave at all. Right now price is sitting at the 382 correction. If you go with the basic principle of A=C, a turnaround here (1.2450) presents the following targets (this is on the weekly):

C=62% of A - 1.1192
C=A - 1.0415
C= 1.62% of A - 0.9158

All kinds of arguments can be made fundamentally for up or down, of course. Technically, it's only one scenario, albeit a tried and tested one.

I wouldn't say the comms always get it right, after all the if the large specs never won they'd eventually stop playing the game. However, the comms are right more than they are wrong, and vice-versa for the large specs. The comms commitment is the highest it's been in over a year now. I've noticed that there is a lag between their commitment peak levels and the follow-through of the price.

The real question about the comms versus the specs is all about who can get shaken out of their position first? The comms are hedgers, the specs are, well, speculators. They will almost always liquidate before the comms will. Given the massive commitment we are seeing right now, whoever liquidates first will add a tremendous amount of momentum to the other's positioning. That's the main reason I believe a big move is coming.

That being said, I'd want to see a little bit of confirmation before I'd short right now. Not much, but something. Last week's candle is impulsive, just about 150% of the ATR. My concern though is that the punters are lining up short right now. Normally they line up with the large specs. That suggests to me we will see more upside before the turnaround begins in earnest so that the market can strip them of their very weak short positions.

Nat

[lamode]

guys, i am a little worry about the south move now as the Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales reports is better than expected, infact, much better than expected for DGO, but it doesnt really pull the cable back down.

[faure]

Wow I really had to change my tune after the Ausie b/o today and am now long AudUsd. But I'm still short GbpUsd and have a large UsdChf long. The Chf seems to be exceptionally weak at the moment, and like a wise trader said, play the leaders, because if you can't make money trading the leaders you will lose trading the laggards. It's all about relative strenght.

[PLATNM456]

I feel a good amount of bullishness in the Euro Long Term as well. I would be expecting a steep southern move for the GBP considering they have been calling for one for a while now, 1.80 will more than likely be seen first but this mans opinion is with the downward spiral. As for the Aussie, I believe a decent run to 77 may be close but what goes up must come down and sell I will. There are certainly big things comming up both upwards and down, be part of something...