MoneyTec 2.0 - Online Forex Traders & Brokers Social Networking Community » Trading Talk » General Trading Forum

[pakua42]

Gentleman and ladies,

There are several software programs that use nueral networks to supposedly let the software adapt itself to trends and indicators that are changing or no longer working. I am using one such program now and the backtesting record for the sample stocks they have given me on the default setting is often 40-%1500 return annually. I can hardly believe it. Is it pssible for dishonest data to be built into the software and how wouold they continue it as one uses the trial version as I am in the present? I would give the name of the company that is giving me a trial on their software but not sure its allowed here. I can be emailed at:mince38@yahoo.com Maybe a few of you can give me your feedback on it. Its free and works for all markets. I just dont want to get scammed.

Anyway, I know no coding or anything about software. Does anyone else have experience with nueral network software? By the way, I wont mention the company name but there is one that "claims" to use nueral networks and all they do is mimick a 10 day moving average! So I know they are probably B.S.!

[woodmarket]

Originally Posted by kenazen

To use Neural Networks in trading, like other tools, you really need to know what is going on under the covers. If you are a true geek, you can get Brainmaker (use to be $200), and make your own Neural net system.

Hi there,

but have you ever used Brainmaker? Apparently, I would say that they stopped the development of this software. I am saying that because the operating systems which are mentioned are somewhat old ......

[SoundFX]

There's no beating the human mind and human nerve. Neural networks are just trying to get close to that, which I don't think will be a possibility in the near future, if ever. I've said it before and I'll say it again...if anyone is selling software to trade the markets, then it is because profits from the sale of their software far outweighs the money they could make just trading with the software in the first place. Why would anyone SELL a piece of software that could make them millions of dollars many times over trading? I wouldn't. Maybe I need to up my altruism. Then again, I'm not a software programmer. But instead of selling it to the masses, I'd use excess profits for charitable purposes, first for family and friends, then for public charity.

-SFX

P.S. BTW, I don't mean charting software, such as MetaTrader and Tradestation...these are helpful TOOLS. I'm talking about black-box software such as Vantagepoint, which is a waste. Just go with the basics, price, candlesticks, simple indicators, and S/R. That's all you need.

[SoundFX]

Maybe, but my opinion is that blackboxes are shit. Good luck with those!! Nothing is as good as the human mind. But people just don't don't know they F-up after paying money. So best of luck!!! And so long suckers!!!


-SFX

[SoundFX]

Warming hearts is my specialty. But if I had one thing to say to newbies, it would be this:

Go ahead and bet the farm. Bless you. I'll enjoy your money.

-S

[SoundFX]

I WELCOME YOUR CASH!!!!!!!!!!!!


Thanks.

[SoundFX]

Yeah, I must apologize for those last posts. Nothing good ever comes of perusing messageboards after a night of drinking and frivolity. I accept defeat. And thank you for reminding me of my past. Keeps me motivated for the present and future.

All that said, blackboxes are a waste of time. At least listen to someone who has spent and lost a great deal of money on systems and software and hare-brained schemes. People new to trading hear this all the time, but are almost inevitably drawn to repeat the exact same mistakes of those that came before...like buffalo running off a cliff. Anyway, despite the harshness of my previous stupid posts, I still maintain that anyone pursuing that sort of blackbox is wasting their time. But go ahead.

-S

[SoundFX]

Enjoy the mini, Ken. I'm jealous and would love to have one at home. I'm fortunate enough to have just started work at a new studio with a G5 2.7GHz and 2x23-inch Cinema Displays. Maybe subconsciously that's why I keep sucking at trading...deep down I never want to leave my day job. ;-)

-SFX

P.S. 46 inches of Forex charts is AWESOME!!

[AlphaTrader]

Must agree with you SoundFX i dont like blackbox systems.
Here is a quote from Joe DiNapoli on non-judgemental black box systems.

"WOULDN'T IT BE NICE...
1. Once you have the development in place, your research and your work is
over. Your trading system is fixed, stationary, and immutable. Stress is
non-existent since the decision-making process is out of your hands and in
the purview of a machine. Thorough and precise (hypothetical) testing
techniques have left little to chance. Everything has been taken into
consideration so your confidence is strong.
2. You can arrange for signals to be implemented by a hired trader or
broker and thereby avoid the tedium of monitoring the markets yourself.
3. "It" - i.e. the "system," the "program," the "solution" - can generate an
' adequate income flow which will enable you to go to Fiji and stick your
toes in the sand. Perhaps "it" can even pay the alimony and child support
while you find a new soul mate to take the place of the dent in the bed.

THE REALITY...
1. The work never ends. When system historical extremes are exceeded,
you're back to tweaking, testing, and massaging the parameters.
1 A. In fact, you better have two independent systems, or
maybe three, or four, to even out the equity swings. Oh
yes, there will not only be some tweaking and
massaging, it's more likely that outright replacement of
a system or two will occur, as one or the other goes
sour altogether.
IB. What about stress? You don't know stress until
you experience pervasive impotence. You feel utterly
helpless to effect results as you watch your system(s)
dictate one absurd order after another. You just know
that profit is going to evaporate and go to a loss. When
that happens, you can't do anything but watch and obey
the signals it generates. Hey Mack, pass the Maalox®,
NOW!
1C. You learn that the $100 for slippage and
commission you thought was extravagant, was in fact
sorely inadequate. You forgot about limit moves, 40
tick runs without looking back, worst possible fill
situations and.... The data you did the testing with was
thought to be okay, but really wasn't all that good.
Your confidence in your testing techniques is hitting
new lows along with your account size.
2. The broker you have executing the trades seems to be missing entries on
some of the biggest moves and ... why couldn 't he get that stop right! Or,
the trader you hired can't help but put his vast experience (one year) to
work "improving" what you have struggled so long to perfect.
3. The only way to get enough capital to properly fund four systems over
the 15 futures contracts you have found necessary to trade for adequate
system diversification, is to take in, and manage money. Now you have
disclosure statements, CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission)
oversight, a staff, and more NFA (National Futures Association)
compliance issues than you ever dreamed existed. You thought a
corporate tax return was hard to comply with? Now the manure is so
thick, you wonder if the daisies you planted will ever have an opportunity
to germinate, much less see the light of day."

All the best

[AlphaTrader]

So have you tried it real time???

[pakua42]

Hello kenazen,

It is interesting that you say you dont believe in black box systems. You gace a fascinating synopsis on it from Joe Dinapoli. Yet......didnt the famous turtle traders use a black box system, only did it by hand in the old days. In fact, one can buy the turtle system as a black box software package even now! And its funny that you then give us a link to ed seykota's moving average system which is black box. Hmmm.....

By the way, I dont know how to do back testing, but how is that system doing? Especially in other markets other than s&p? More feedback please(smile)

Oh.....frivolity and drinking are cheaper than psycho-therapy so keep up the good work, to the other poster. You can try carrot juice and meditation if you trulu feel guilty. -)


Marc

[AlphaTrader]

Originally Posted by pakua42

Oh.....frivolity and drinking are cheaper than psycho-therapy so keep up the good work, to the other poster. You can try carrot juice and meditation if you trulu feel guilty. -)


Marc

First of all WTF? to the above.

Yeah i posted what Joe DiNapoli said about black box systems.

So what your view about Black Box systems? Also what your experiance in the market?

[initialsBB]

Hi guys
Does any of you have actually extensive experience with neural networks?

[TraderABC]

The best network is between the ears.... Neural Networks in their current state are totally weak.... A little child has more intelligence than a most advanced neural network...

There was a study done to try to make Neural networks recognise picture with tanks... Very soon the system started to give out 100% accurate results... The scientists were euphoric and they probably said something like, "Hey our team of PHD's has built a computer that is almost as smart as a 5 year old!! (in recognising shapes)" . Soon after looking over the results, they have found out HOW the neural network was able to identify photo's with tanks.... It identified photo's with tanks by....... Looking at the sky! All the photo's the computer was fed was on an overcast weather.... So identifying shapes was hard for a pc to handle so it took an easier root....

Moral of the story: If you are smarter than 5 year old, stick to a REAL network that GOD made between your ears....

[AlphaTrader]

Originally Posted by TraderABC

The best network is between the ears

Yeah thats what most people dont seem to understand. Ohh well one day maybe.