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Old 22-06-2003, 18:33   #1
Paul Koszarny
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EUR/USD fractal outlook

EUR/USD fractal outlook

EUR/USD eyed higher prices swiveled. Therefore it plummeted very low to suggest that as long as the market remains below the first impulse's low (1.1632) we should expect its extention to unwind in the days to come. A prompt Fibo calculation gives us 1.1150, a potential target of further slides. No matter what the current rally on Wall Street is called, its volume has not generated any bearish signal yet, so it's dollar supportive. And gold is down with little signs of recovery. That's also dollar supportive. From last week's top on Monday the basic down trend line has remained intact. Dedicated followers of bargain hunting could triumph twice, yet leaving the positions without a trailing stop couldn't have been profitable or safe. We had some minor profit taking late Friday, where EUR/USD recovered about 60 pips following the model hour's low. The point is that basic support intact since May 16 is gone now so traditionally EUR/USD will be sold into strength. I would draw Fibonacci extention lines of the projected movement and pray for a modicum of profit. I would also pay attention to USD/JPY which is very close to its critical mass before an explosion. The first model hour for Monday is 2:00-3.00 CET with resistance 1.1603. Yet I think it will be more interesting to see the market near Europe's opening hour.
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