EUR/USD losing battle

[Paul Koszarny]

EUR/USD has developed a bearish formation on M15 charts. Hourlies look equally heavy. The first dip from 1.0596 to 1.0563 may potentially bring the euro down to 1.0510. M15 issued two clear sell signals which enabled to profit max 48 pips on shorts.
A movement below 1.0548 will be seen as a fresh bearish signal and if you recall Tuesday's new support 1.0565, it is gone now. We are trading near Thursday's pivot 1.0555. Those who closed longs at 1.0596 should sigh in relief, as the uncertainty on whether we will see further gains through this week is growing.
I suppose you agree that we had a battle near the high levels today after which bulls are gradually retreating.

[Paul Koszarny]

EUR/USD is trading lower reaching 1.0529 on the opening of Europe. This is almost 70 pips from yesterday highs. Short picture is already oversold but this may not mean anything given the fact that at 7:00 the market did not react to then new low. Short term attractor of falls at 1.0495.

[Paul Koszarny]

As expected EUR/USD slipped down to almost 1.0500. We see a minor reaction held at 1.0525 and in spite of the oversold conditions this market still looks weak. Thursday is a fractal day, so chance is that we will see a test of 1.0418. We are not getting any vital statistics today, therefore it's hard to think that sth will crop up suddenly to lift the euro above yesterday highs. Today's beige book will appear in the evening ours of Europe.
Should this be a really major weekly reversal, it will not be deep at an early stage. Weekly reversals usually encounter a lot of resistance from onesided investors.

The first Fibo retracement of 1.0597-1.0505 is at 1.0540.

Grave picture from numerous divergences.

[Paul Koszarny]

EUR/USD has retraced 38.2% of the recent fall reaching 1.0538, thus giving 30 pips on a long position from today's low.

[Paul Koszarny]

We are approaching 14:00 which is today,s model hour. The market is in a reactive mode, retracing some of the recent losses. The next Fibo level is at 1.0550. M15 suggest to stay tuned to the charts at 13:45-14:00. Intel above forecast. Stock markets not in a bad shape. Bush televised with a burning flame in the mantelpiece to influence subconsciousness with allegory of war. Time is running out.

[Paul Koszarny]

I suppose this kind of volatility sounds like squeeking fingernails on the blackboard. Not much to add besides persistent weakness below the first retracement 1.0540. We may see higher volatility tomorrow. During the 14:00 hour support 1.0515 was tested. Today's market has been all in the shadow of the morning negative candle from 9:00.

[Paul Koszarny]

Grudging ober the keyboard wakes the beast. And it bit the moment I posted the previous lines. So we have tested 50% of the recent decline. Any better? And look who's been doing it!

[currencia]

Good for U Koszarny in your willingness to speak out contrary to the crowd on the eurousd pair. I beleive your asssessment is correct in that eurousd is topping. Since last night I have orders short eurousd starting at 1.0580, north thru 1.0625 with a stop above 1.0655. The end of the week will tell; actually Thursday ought tell the story.
I am concerned about the ugly looking top on the DJIA daily however. It forbodes a crown break south to 7500 soon. But, that's what stops are for!!