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Old 11-06-06, 06:58 AM
kshitij's Avatar kshitij kshitij is offline
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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 06-Nov-2006...1128 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
---------------------------
Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fx...shtml#register

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
---------------------



$-Swiss @ 1.2565/70....Holding Longs
------------------------------------
R: 1.2578 / 1.2604 / 1.2620
S: 1.2542 / 1.2513 / 1.2484
$-Swiss rallied to a high of 1.2578 during the day, displaying strength. Now the overhead Resistance for the pair would be coming in at 1.2604, which is the statistically projected Max High for the day. If that is crossed, there could be a rally towards 1.2620, which comes on the trendline joining the highs of 1.2773 (13-Oct) and 1.2744 (18-Oct). On the downside the Supports are coming in at 1.2542 and then at 1.2513. The statistically projected Max Low for the day is at 1.2484. The bias for the stock is positive and we are holding Longs in the pair.

Holding:
$25K Long at 1.2571, SL 1.2540, TP 1.2590
$25K Long at 1.2554, SL 1.2504, TP 1.2590

Order:
Buy $25K at 1.2500, SL 1.2450, TP 1.2590


Cable @ 1.8957/62....Bearish for 1.8875-65
------------------------------------------
R: 1.9000 / 1.9030 / 1.9075
S: 1.8948 / 1.8917
The Cable has fallen sharply during the day to a low of 1.8948. With this, the weakness on the pair is increasing as it seems to have broken its important support (now Resistance) of 1.9000. Now there may be a fall towards 1.8917, which is the statistically projected Max Low for the day. A Day Close below 1.9000 today and a break below 1.8917 by tomorrow could lead to further decline towards 1.8875-65.




Aussie @ 0.7696/7700...Important Resistance 0.7716-40
-----------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7716 / 0.7739
S: 0.7671 / 0.7659
The Aussie dipped to a low of 0.7671 during the day but has bounced back sharply since then. With this the pair has made an important Support at 0.7671 for the day. Now if that is broken (chances 50-50), then there may be a fall towards 0.7659, the statistically projected Max Low for the day. On the upside there is a Resistance at 0.7716, which is the statistically projected Max High for the day. If that is crossed, there could be a rally towards 0.7739.

The overall picture (mentioned in the morning) suggests chances of a Top in the 0.7750-7850 region. As such, if the Aussie fails to rise past 0.7715-40 today (chances are 60-70%), it could run into strong selling pressure. However, a Day Close above 0.7744 would be damaging for the Bear view. Watching the market today, will enter according to behavior in the 0.7715-40 region.




Happy Trading!
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