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Old 01-18-06, 07:47 AM
kshitij's Avatar kshitij kshitij is offline
FX Thoughts
 
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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 18-Jan-2006.... 1142 GMT

Euro @ 1.2127/30....Range Traders' Delight
--------------------------------------------
R: 1.2157-67 / 1.2183
S: 1.2077 / 1.2050-35 / 1.2005
The Euro continues to move up and down within its range of 1.2000-2200 (wide) and 1.2050-2157 (narrower). We find it difficult to trade this kind of movement. For those who are able to trade it, though, this is the time to make money hand over fist.



$-Yen @ 115.05/09....To remain 'tween 114.80-115.95
--------------------------------------------------
R: 115.20-35 / 115.66 / 115.91
S: 114.80 / 114.57 / 114.26
Dollar-Yen tested 114.80 (near our statistically projected Max Low of 114.82 for the day) and has moved up a bit thereafter. Expect the market to remain between 114.80-115.90 today. We are holding 2 Lots Long at an average rate of 115.10.

Holding:
$25K Long at 115.30, SL 114.70, TP 115.40 (down from 115.80)

$25K Long at 114.90, SL 114.65 (up from 114.60), TP 115.60 (down from 115.70)


Euro-Yen @ 139.54/59.....Bullish bias
---------------------------------------
R: 139.62-67 / 139.88 / 140.68
S: 139.17-06 / 138.84-95 / 138.50
The Euro-Yen dipped to 139.20 and has bounced back up a bit. This shows that there is buying interest still alive in the cross. Strong supports are at 139.20 and then at 138.70. The resistances come in at 139.77. A rise above that targets 140.The overall bias is bullish.

Unfortunately, the Long entered at 139.71 in the morning was stopped but at 139.35




$-Swiss @ 1.2750/55....Trying to break Supports?
---------------------------------------------
R: 1.2785-2800 / 1.2853
S: 1.2740 / 1.2722-17
$-Swiss is trying to break the trendline on the 4-Hourly charts, coming in at 1.2740. Below this, there is a support at 1.2722-17 region where it has its 200-Day MA. A credible fall below the support at 1.2722-17 would be required for a decline towards 1.2675. On the upside there is a resistance at 1.2785-2800 range, above which there could be a rally towards 1.2853, which is the maximum projected high for the day. The overall bias is bearish.


Cable @ 1.7680/85...Ranged with a bearish bias
----------------------------------------------------
R: 1.7692-1.7708 / 1.7750
S: 1.7663-51 / 1.7597-87
The pair currently consolidates between 1.7587 –1.7700 since yesterday and has found buying at the range bottom once again today. If 1.7700 resistance is broken, then a rally to 1.7750 may be seen today. Failure to rise above 1.7700 might cause the pair remain consolidated for the rest of the day with a bearish bias. Which implies the support at 1.7587 could be vulnerable to be broken and lead to a fall to 1.7540 by tomorrow.

Holding:
GBP 15K Short at 1.7650, SL 1.7710, TP 1.7545.




Aussie @ 0.7493/98....Holding Short
------------------------------------
R: 0.7504-13 / 0.7522-35
S: 0.7469 / 0.7452-39 / 0.7425-19
The pair has bounced back from the support level at 0.7465-57 during the day, but finds strong resistance at 0.7515 on further rise. For today the pair might remain bearish biased with the possibilities of falling to 0.7409 (50% retracement of the rise from 0.7238 (28-Dec-05 low) to 0.7580 (16-Jan-06 high) by tomorrow.

On the other hand if a rise above 0.7535 is seen, the possibilities of a fall could come into doubt and a further rise to 0.7575 may be seen instead.

Holding:
AUD 30K Short at 0.7490, SL 0.7525, TP open. As soon as the market trades 0.7475 hereafter, bring SL down to 0.7520


Happy Trading!
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