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| FX Thoughts - Evening - 30/11/04.......1246 GMT Euro @ 1.3287/90.....Watch 1.3330 --------------------------------- R: 1.3308 / 1.3333 / 1.3411 S: 1.3286-72 / 1.3232-26 The European (as well as the Pound and Swissy) have risen sharpy in the last 2-3 hours. If the upmove continues past the Friday High near 1.3330, the Euro could rise towards 1.34 as well. Alternatively, the market might hover between 1.3230-1.3333 for the day. At least there are decent chances of the 1.3330 level being tested again. Euro-Yen @ 136.54/9...Both 136.30 and 137.00 are crucial -------------------------------------------------------- R: 136.88-95 / 137.25 / 137.87 S: 136.37-32 / 136.12-135.98 The Cross has been trading between 136.30 and 137.00. Importantly, the neat uptrend still holds. Thus the chances of 137.40 being seen over today-tomorrow continue to exist. BUT, at the same time, the strength of the 137.00 Resistance has increased and there could be decent selling interest there. So, need to be careful on the Cross now, and will therefore avoid. $-Swiss @ 1.1377/82....Slide to 1.12 if 1.1332 breaks ----------------------------------------------------- R: 1.1386 / 1.1425 / 1.1487 S: 1.1349-32 / 1.1261 / 1.1198 As the supports at 1.1425 and 1.1390 have been broken, the market could dip to 1.1332, the statistically projected max low for the day. If so, there would be good chances of a further decline towards 1.12 The sudden decline in EUR-CHF puts added momentum into a USD-CHF decline. CAREFUL: The Euro has fallen sharply against both the Swiss Franc and the Pound today. Is this a leading indicator of profit-taking on Euro Longs in general? Just some loud thinking, but something worth keeping an eye on. Cable @ 1.9062/7...Time to go square? ----------------------------------------- R: 1.9072 S: 1.9039 / 1.9008 / 1.8968 The market has already climbed to a high near 1.9090, past the statistically projected Max High of 1.9072. Thus, there are decent chances of the previous high of 1.9142 being seen again. Whether the market will continue to rise beyond that is call we cannot take at this point of time and would prefer being square rather than either long or short. Our Long at 1.8868 saw profit at 1.8940 $-Yen @ 102.62/99....Holding Longs ----------------------------------- R: 103.17-27-37 / 103.63-69 / 103.95 S: 102.65 / 102.54-50 / 102.21 Could it be that the Dollar has been unable to sustain the rise above 103.25 and has fallen as a result? Or is this just a dip after two days of upmove? If it is the latter, then there can be a fall towards 102.20-10. Otherwise, there could be rally back up towards 103.25+ Holding: $25K Long at 103.15, SL 102.62, TP 103.60 $25K Long at 102.82, SL 102.55 (up from 102.40), TP open Happy Trading! |
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