Forex Trading = Gambling

[birdjaguar]

If you haven't been there, you are a very,very rare individual. For the rest of us mortals, trading can be frustrating; but you must be willing to receive help if you want to improve.

[xtsunami]

Metal,

You may not want to believe it, but none-the-less, past time-price actions have a harmonic relationship to the time-price actions of the future.

My analysis of trades is done well in advance of such time-price levels and I can assure you it has nothing to do with "indicators" being applied after the fact as you make mention.

Perhaps you should get to work and study these markets. It is obvious from your replies, that you have not.

[ForexWizard]

Originally Posted by metal

Adapt to what?

Losing....

There is no guarantee the market will not turn back.

OK I will explain in detail....

Say you think that euro will hit 1900 today because of your analisys.
You are short at 1970 with a stop at 1990. A few minutes into your day you get stopped out at 1990.

you:
1) short at 1990 with a stop at 2010?
or
2) you take a look at what might be driving the move up and reconsider your analisys?

Lets say you stick to your guns and take a new short at 1990 with stop at 2010. Then 30 minutes later you are stopped out again. Now you are down 40 pips.

you:
1) short at 2010 with a stop at 2030?
or
2) you take a look at what might be driving the move up and reconsider your analisys?

By the time you have lost 60 pips you should think about what your asumptions were and see what the problem was. The market can always turn arround but thats why you cant make broad 24 to 48 hour targets set in stone. You should always aproach the chart with an oppened mind!

IMHO

[fxmktlgc]

I think you've answered your own question. Apparently you're using some type of indicators to predict future price levels. Instead, focus primarily on price action and secondarily on indicators that give you "here and now" (not supposedly "predictive") information on patterns, support/resistance, divergence, etc.

There was an almost textbook double bottom around 1.1950 with many indicators showing divergence--especially on the hourly timeframe, as someone pointed out. This was real-time (not "fitting to past data") if you look for these sorts of things. I'm not saying it's always easy to spot them and I still have a lot to learn, but it can be done.

Moreover, even if you used the simplest trend-following indicators, you would've been long in the EURUSD well before it hit 1.2000.

I guess what I'm trying to say is this: let the market tell you what it's doing and react to that, instead of trying to make it fit into your expectations.

Originally Posted by metal

Lets consider the example of EUR/USD today.

All indicators and analysis were pointing towards EUR/USD hiting 1.1900 today. And then out of the blue came an Asian CB and a German name raising it back to 1.2000.

Now what kind of technical analysis will you apply to that?

regards and happy trading
Metal

[phildunn]

Originally Posted by metal

Lets consider the example of EUR/USD today.

All indicators and analysis were pointing towards EUR/USD hiting 1.1900 today. And then out of the blue came an Asian CB and a German name raising it back to 1.2000.

Now what kind of technical analysis will you apply to that?

regards and happy trading
Metal

One more LOSER in group of 90% that don't want to learn and accept failures in trading

[forexhr]

Metal,
I would recommend that you read Trading in The zone By Mark Doglas.
This book is the best book I have read on trading psychology. It helped me allot.

[FXSniper]

Why try to predict where the market will go? Picking tops and bottoms is hazardous to your account balance...

Let the market take you where it wants to go...

Reversal patterns and continuation patterns exist in all time frames

Text book double bottom/1-2-3 reversal this morning on 5min/15min charts...

[Atomised]

Nimble is the name of the game (war planners will tell you this). You have a short bias as you start your trading day but as soon as the first fire is shot you need to be able to adapt.

If u can't adapt to the market forget trading for a living.

I'd apply the clear bullish regular divergence that existed on every timeframe from 1min up to 4hr, at S1 daily pivot support level. Price was miles outside the lower 60 bollinger band on the 5min chart, and with a divergence playing out entirely outside the band, a snap back up off that pivot was almost inevitable. It was also at a confluence of bollinger bands on the 30min chart with 10,20,40 and 60 period bands all in the same spot.

Man i've just had a bottle of wine and you've just taken the exact words outta my mouth !!!

Why try to predict where the market will go? Picking tops and bottoms is hazardous to your account balance...

Picking tops and bottoms along with regular divergence is like catching falling knives to me, why don't we all just mellow out and go with the flow !!??

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