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MOdel hours on EUR/USD
To TradeConsultant,
FMA can fall short of expectations as any other idea of analysis and trading. That we have learned far too many times on any market.
The main difficulty is when a very strong underlying trend compresses your reward/loss ratio. Especially when it concerns dailies. The second difficulty is when volatility surpasses model assumptions by far. The third difficulty it requires a lot of fuzzy logic. You don't measure candles in milimetres to tell yourself this is it, that is that. It is always 'it looks like that, it seems so'.
The fourth difficulty is a gross mistake of blending different approaches to your fuzzy logic. After all everyone of us has gone though tons of charts testing standard technical analysis. At least I have. And from time to time there is some nostalgy to return to 'good' old ideas telling yourself that that was sth on which you made good profit once or twice.
From the point of view of consistency, a primary feature of any moing, I have nothing to declare failing. On the one hand I could be stopped on a FX position, and on the other hand I would be profiting on stock futures using the same method. So I cannot complain much about it.
In literature you will find elaborations on the durability of the so-called inner memory of a market system. With conclusions that 4-5 years is max what you can use. Later it vanishes.
This can't be true, and I challenge Peter's view very strongly. I made an analysis of copper which was based on the last 12 years, and the memory was still there clearly visible.
I have made a lot of false movements technically speaking getting overzealous, overexcited etc. And one primary sin was too many times I was leaving my positions unattended thinking the model would do the job for me. And when you panic, you can't think consistently with the model.
Yes, I would like to hear from your friend. Perhaps I could reassure him in his pursue.
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