GBPUSD Discussion Only

[MickMason]

Nat, I can see where you're getting 61.8 from but you lost me on the 161.8 confluence?

Personally I would have taken the 17/7 low 1.8175 to 8/8 high 1.9142, 61.8 at 1.8550, then the 18/8 low 1.8774 and 31/8 high 1.9090, 161.8 1.8580, close enough.

Having said that, if we retrace from here 50% to 1.8850, 161.8 lines up nicely with 61.8 and your 1.8490 for a long and high 1.94.

I guess first we need to get past 1.8775!



Mick

[MickMason]

.....ps: nice trades short by the way!

[bobnat]

Mick,

From the high on 8/8 to the low on 8/18 there was a retracement back up to 9091 on 8/31. Think of it as an A down, a B up, and then a C down. Price is currently at the 1.272 of the value of A. The 1.618 is a fairly common extension target for Cs. Imo, ABCs are the best thing to come out of Elliot Wave.

Indeed, if this is an ABC, then we're looking at some serious upside movement.

Look at the attached chart. I think this is what you're talking about in your last post. I'm showing the 1.618 extension at 8498, not 8550. I did the math and it's the correct figure.

High 9142 - Low 8776 = 366 points

366 x 1.618 = 592 points

High of 9091 - 592 = 1.8499

Using the low at 7/17 is a valid Fib point, but so is the low of 6/29. Using the former, there isn't any confluence and the close is below the 50. That leads me to believe that this particular fib level isn't holding. In my experience, if there are two fib levels close to each other and one has confluence while th other doesn't, the better bet is on the confluence.

On top of all that, Friday showed more strength than Wed or Thursday in that it closed closer to it's low.

Nat

[FXGenius]

This thread is now looking interesting, all experts gathering at a single place with their valuable inputs ... very educating infact.

[bobnat]

Originally Posted by MickMason

.....ps: nice trades short by the way!

Thanks. I recently mentioned my disillusionment with EW analysis. If I had been sticking with it, I never would have made those trades. I've finally come to the realization that while it may work for some, it wasn't working all that well for me. I felt I was letting way too many good trades go by simply because they didn't fit my analysis. That being said, ABCs are the best thing to come out of EW. They are a trading system in and of themselves.

Nat

[FXGenius]

Hi Astro and jodyong welcome to the thread and thanks for your inputs. Astro I agree to trendline point.

[MickMason]

Originally Posted by bobnat

I did the math and it's the correct figure.

High 9142 - Low 8776 = 366 points

366 x 1.618 = 592 points

High of 9091 - 592 = 1.8499

Nat

You're right Nat of course, I was using MT4 on the laptop and forgot the parameters are set up for something else, I couldn't work out why it looked wrong so ended up doing it by calculator!

1.618 x (1.8776 - 1.9142) + 1.9091 = 1.8499

I absolutely agree with you about EW, even though I haven't used it as a practical trading tool I read an awful lot about it, the bias seems to be a potential killer and I think causes tunnel vision to some degree.

Lately I seem to have got more involved with fundamentals, from a bias perspective maybe they're just as bad!!


Mick

[zunis-myst]

On the Euro this last drop looks like a bear trap, why not here in the Cable, too?