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Old 08-07-2003, 11:30   #17
rezo_s
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Hi pete.
I tell you, that this the very same question disterbing me for long time once. Sure you wont find any information on it, as the information out there is only what they want people to know. Even if you send email to your broker or talk to him on phone, he wont give you clear answer - he'll talk about all the things around it, but never give you a direct answer to this one. And in some way - it doesnt really matter whether they are bookmakers of interbank trading participants. And even though I couldnt get a clear answer on it till now, things are easily explained using simple logic.
First of all, one thing is for sure - noone will take a mini contract (10k) to real market - its a joke.
Now lets think about 100k contracts...hmmm. Well, considering the huge liquidity of this market one may assume, that if they are attuched with 10s and hundreds of brokers, market makers and banks, they may at any given moment put togather 10 contracts of 100k and go out to interbank session. But once you enter interbank - there's no "what you cick is what you get"... Therfore no guarantee they can do it, and even if this is not enough problem, here's another problem with this scenario: not all market makers have exact same quotes at any given moment, so how can they put a trade, joining 10 contracts with different quotes into one interbank trade? If they do so - they risk to loose their profit - spred. Therefore, market maker means you're buying and selling directly with them. What happens next and what are their activities on interbank market is up to them.
I talked to some people who worked there and as far as I understood - most of the time trades are balanced; i.e. there's more or less same buy and sell contracts - usually. Mu guess is, that in case there is a disbalance, they start clearing more stops, and when balance is ok - they collect less stops. In worst case, maybe they even intervien in interbank to move prices slightly in theis favor if price is not that far (though I doubt many are able to influence and move market in significant way). Maybe when they got lots of trades in particular side, they do take their money to interbank in order not to pay for the potencial profits...and so on - they may have much more sophisticared tricks not to loose money, I dont know. But in general - your trades are complitely isolated within their organization. No market maker or broker will admit it, but in fact, when you win - they loose. They deny sush claims as in this case they are playing against you - and that;s not perception they want potential clients to have. After all - who will go and trade forex knowing market maker itself is playing against you
Regarding the longer term and shorter term traders...I dont think its that important for them - all they care is buy contracts against sell contracts at any given time - not more. Sure, the more trades client does - the more spred they get. But thats it.
But as I said - its not something trader must be aware of. Its part of business. After all - go to interbank market - noone promices your trade will be executed ; there's no "no requoting", "no slippage" - who needs 100k on interbank market So, as far as there is oppotrunity for us to trade smaller contracts - I say thank you. So what if they are clearing stops here and there - everyone does it - you're a trader, and knowing that, try to put stop to have better chance to survive. They cannot hold or push prices more than 5-20 pips away from market. Is this what does you a trade? Maybe - if you're trading for those very 5-20 pips per trade. As for me, I'm trading with 50-100 pips stops and 100-300 pips targets, having ave 14 trades a month. And though from time to time my stops are hit (its part of trading), I'm not that worried whehter its my broker or not - I know its mainly market move (well, maybe in the end broker pushed a bit prices, maybe not. but main move was of market). Main thing is - if they are practicing stop clearing too much - leave. Find amongst them respectible one and enjoy . Ater all - they have to make money, and thats the way they have to act sometimes in order to maintain profits.
Thats my view, and nothing more... So lets concentrate on making money as for sure, market makers are.
And yeah - if you think of those playing against you - all those buying when you sold are against you, and all those selling when your long are also betting against you - you're always betting against someone. So what? Think of broker manipulations as another market participant who tries to make money playing against you.
Back to market now Good Luck and thanks for good thread.
Rezo.
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Old 08-07-2003, 15:29   #18
Burtakus
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Rezo,

In your previous post about the trades a trader takes staying within their market maker and not going anywhere else such as the interbank, couldn't this be dangerous. If a few people were good (lucky) enough to consistantly make large returns then those winnings would come from the market makers capital and threaten to possibly bankrupt them. Granted this is not likely to occur but still it could happen. I would assume that the MM has the system worked out as necessaery to ensure that the majority of winnings paid out come from the losses that other clients incur therby mitigating the chances of the previous scenario happenning. It has to be a finely tuned balancing act.

I can understand why many people are concerend with the financial strenght of a potential MM. However if all funds and trades are kept internal such that wins are paid with the losses of others and the MM is making its money on the spread then they should be financially sound as long as they can pay the bills with the spread and not get too greedy and dip into the pot allocated to paying winning traders. Now on the other hand, if they venture out in the interbank they run the risk of getting eaten by the big fish.

While the system is imperfect, I agree with you that it is great that the small guys have the opportunity to trade FX. Without the slightly crooked MM out there we would have to play in the slow world of stocks with even bigger crooks.
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Old 08-07-2003, 16:14   #19
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Thats right. all true. But calculate the income from spreds - I said they are making much more than any trader. Consider this:
Lets take fxcm as an example. They claim to have over 12000 clients. Lets say there are 30% trading 100k lots, and 70 % - mini. They claim to have monthly trading volume above $20 billion. (lets take their 2% leverage):
its 6 bill/100k per contracts = 60000 lots -> 60000*5pips*9$(ave 9$/pip) a trade=2.7 mio.
rest 14 bill is in mini contracts of 10k each -> 14bil/10k=1.4 mio mini sized trades a month. Worth of 1.4mio*5pip*0.9$/pip=6.4 mio. Overall - 9 mio of brutto income from spred. Now you tell me, considering that 90% of individuals trading forex are statisticaly loosing their money (I dont know how accurat this figure is, but you agree that profitable traders are rare) + opportunity to clear stops here and there + possibility to enter interbank...and more things they can do, how can they become bankrupt? Sure, everything is possible, but they have good business going...
Maybe I made some mistake in calculations, or assumptions. Maybe even the whole perception is wrong. But thsts how I see it. Anyone with better and deeper knoladge can comment my post? Just for Iterest. Right now nothng much interesting onmarket, so ....

Good Luck.
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Old 08-07-2003, 21:14   #20
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Funny thing Rezo and Pete, I've been thinking about the same thing. However, since I got access to Bloomberg thru uni, I found out that on EURO & Yen trades I could rarely seen any of the brokers we are using here on the forum. Strange thing

So either, they are buying from a 3d part or they are not buying at all??? As many assume, 90-95 % of traders lose, so why would they need to trade in the market in fact, might be more risky for them?

On the other hand, seeing a firm in the market indicates that they are a serious company and make me feel safe. They must know what they are doin, othervise they would probobly not be there, right?

Hopefully I will get a trial of the EBS system on my uni soon so I hope to get some more info then..

All the best, Micke

Last edited by Micke256 : 08-07-2003 at 21:21.
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Old 09-07-2003, 10:45   #21
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Re; Interbank Trading

Hi guys,

Further to Rezos reguest, I will try to answer your questions or
any information that you guys would like. I really have no idea
what you would like to know. So rather than writing a huge piece
on this now, please let me know of your questions etc..and I will
do my best to clarify it for you.

regards to all....


Hakan
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Old 09-07-2003, 10:58   #22
rezo_s
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Hi, Hakan and thanks for your prcious xp-ce you're ready to share. Well, although the main topic of this thread was:
"do market makers actually take trades of their clients out to interbank market, or not. And if not, how do they manage to keep their balance amongst current buy/sell contracts their clients are holding."
But while discussing, couple more q-s came up. For instance:
what trading in interbank market is like:
- is there possibility you see quote, but your order is not filled on that price
- whats leverage there
- is there margin call, and if is - what's the level
- how can privat investor trade there. i.e. what are terms - min acc; broker/bank/ ; spred; liquidity, and maybe you'll add some more aspects.
is there a chance broket/bank for practice what most market makers/brokers we (reular people) work with - stop clearing (collecting).
If if you add any other info - its all for good.

Thanks again,
Rezo.
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Old 09-07-2003, 13:24   #23
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Micke:; EBS is owned by the top ten largest banks and serves the top 100 largest banks. The smallest trade size is 1 mio, and it is not worth pushing the button for that lousy mio trade.

There are new generations coming out all the time, where another set of 10 banks offers up a platform for the next largest 1,000 banks, and so on. They have not faired well in most cases.

There seems to be a lotta of confusion going on here about this subject. Gonna call up the EBS and ask for a mini, mini demo?
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Old 09-07-2003, 14:15   #24
Micke256
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Quote:
Originally posted by currencia
Micke:; EBS is owned by the top ten largest banks and serves the top 100 largest banks. The smallest trade size is 1 mio, and it is not worth pushing the button for that lousy mio trade.

There are new generations coming out all the time, where another set of 10 banks offers up a platform for the next largest 1,000 banks, and so on. They have not faired well in most cases.

There seems to be a lotta of confusion going on here about this subject. Gonna call up the EBS and ask for a mini, mini demo?

Currencia, as I got Bloomberg pro in uni, I was only trying to get access to the EBS platform. This to see how it works, which features they got as I cannot use at the moment. I have no intention to trade on EBS what so ever, only wanna see what they got and how it works!!!

As they have a small annoncement coming up when u surf the bloomberg: "EBS now availible" or something like that.. I though. Hey, I wanna see how it is.. nothing more. And when I speak to a person who is gonna allow me access to that platform, they don't know if I'm a big firm trading currency or a student organisation.. soooo, I hope it'll work, othervise I just stick to what I got..
Best regards, Micke
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