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Gogga
Now for something which is hopefully more useful.
I use most of the old school techniques for determining trend i.e higher highs, higher lows, position relative to 50&200ema etc.
One of the best things I have found in agreement with elmgad2000 is using ema's. I use 8 and 20.
In simple terms, you want the 8 to be above 20 on 15,60 and daily to take a long and vice versa for shorts. I normally drop down to 5's for entry and it is nice if this confirms as well.
I do other trades outside of these criteria based on fib levels, pivots, other support, patterns etc but this technique is a useful filter for catching middle of moves.
I'll pick a bad example to show how effective it is.
USD/CHF This pair, like many is very choppy with frequent ma crosses, so not ideal. Like I said though, this shows how well this technique works.
On 21/9 a long black candle meant 8 crossed below 20 , thus we would be looking for shorts. Since then, on the daily, the 8 has remained below the 20.
On 22/9 on 60mins, the 8 crossed above 20 and stayed above for most of day, meaning no trades.
On 23/9 by gmt hours, the 8 had crossed below the 20 again. Obviously, this would also apply to 15. I then look for an opportunity to enter on a 5. Depending upon how agressive you are, there were 3 good entries between 1.2600 and 1.2580.
I personally always scale out and will take at least 1/2 off after 30 -50pips ( depends on pair and ATR) . The consolidation over the next 2 hours plus various other signs was opportunity to close at good profit on half of trade at least.
On 24/9 on 60, the 8 crossed under 20 again on 10-11 candle . on the 15, you got a recross below again at about 10.30gmt so short was looking a good option. It's then a case of finding a good entry. On the 15, the close below the 200ema and low of day was a good one ( you could also look at the fact that the currency has been making lower lows, lower highs ... downtrend anyone?)
Again the 30 pips were made on 1/2 and the remainder of the trade should have been closed at some sort of profit by anyones standards.
And so on. 26/9 gave one entry around 11.20ish. This was not as sucessful and depending upon exit criteria, resulted in a small gain /loss.
Today gave another excellent entry at 7.20-30 for 30+pips.
I have to stress this is not the main criteria I use. I like to scale in with entry before the crosses. However, I will always add when crosses occur, unless very strong support resistance is nearby.
I deliberately choose a pair that has a crappy chart to show this works. I normally trade GBY/JPY. This pair would present to good an argument at the moment.
To make it work, my main suggestions would be to have a good entry system on the timescale you trade. My suggestion is near the 8/20emas. Also, and you said you would do this.. scale out when you have a reasonable profit. This alone turned my from consistent but small losses to consistent gains. I look at a lot of the journals on here and see many trades that make it into profit, only to turn around into a loss because the profit target is maybe 70 - 100 pips away.
Bank some of those gains and life in Dubai will be sweet.
Good luck.
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How to determine daily trend
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