Indicators are overhyped... The truth about them...

[SoundFX]

Indicators ALWAYS tell the truth in that they are "indicating" what the market is doing at this very moment. Nothing more. They are not "predictors". What we need as traders are predictors but unfortunately we don't have any. All we can do is bet based on what might happen according to what is now happening what HAS happened in the recent past. All any of us are doing is betting nothing more.

Tough eh.

-S

[Tapereader]

Originally Posted by SoundFX

Indicators ALWAYS tell the truth in that they are "indicating" what the market is doing at this very moment. Nothing more. They are not "predictors". What we need as traders are predictors but unfortunately we don't have any. All we can do is bet based on what might happen according to what is now happening what HAS happened in the recent past. All any of us are doing is betting nothing more.

Tough eh.

-S

If we are not trying to predict the future with TA then we are wasting our time. Just pick a stock on the flip of a coin go long or short on another flip. We ALL are absolutely trying to determine "what" the stock might do in the future. So we are trying to predict. It is not logical to say we aren't trying to determine what a market will do (future) thus in my books that is an attempt at a forecast/prediction. Even if one says they aren't doing so by using TA they ARE doing it IMO.

[Tapereader]

If the markets can't be predicted then how did pinabetal predict yesterday 12/19 at 8:23 p.m. (see time stamp on his post) that the YM would trade down the next day 12/20 which is exactly what it did? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showth...pagenumber=525

[TraderABC]

Originally Posted by Tapereader

If the markets can't be predicted then how did pinabetal predict yesterday 12/19 at 8:23 p.m. (see time stamp on his post) that the YM would trade down the next day 12/20 which is exactly what it did? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showth...pagenumber=525

Luck possibly....

[KPcurrency]

Originally Posted by Tapereader

If we are not trying to predict the future with TA then we are wasting our time. Just pick a stock on the flip of a coin go long or short on another flip. We ALL are absolutely trying to determine "what" the stock might do in the future. So we are trying to predict. It is not logical to say we aren't trying to determine what a market will do (future) thus in my books that is an attempt at a forecast/prediction. Even if one says they aren't doing so by using TA they ARE doing it IMO.

The future is unknown not knowable. We do not know where prices will go. It can not be known. So what should we be doing? We should be using indicators that tell the truth. what is the truth? What is happening right now. Indicators should tell us that prices are moving up or moving down. They can tell us if the current move is greater or lesser than some previous move. They can tell us the rate or speed of the price change.

Remember when you enter a trade you are not entering long for example because you think prices will rise you are entering a long trade because your indicators or patterns have identified this point in time as a reasonable point to go long. In other words indicators tell us that EXISTING conditions favor a trade in one particular direction. They do not predict that the conditions will remain for some time into the future.(although we would expect them to the real emphasis is on the NOW .

[MickMason]

Trading is judgment not luck calculated risk with a comparable reward.

Markets are predictable to a certain extent otherwise we're all wasting our time money if it's just a guessing game

Don't agree? What's this scotch mist......

60pips for the taking:

[TraderABC]

Originally Posted by MickMason

Trading is judgment not luck calculated risk with a comparable reward.

Markets are predictable to a certain extent otherwise we're all wasting our time money if it's just a guessing game

Don't agree? What's this scotch mist......

60pips for the taking:

Mick that is not a proof. You have just provided two screenshots... I'd like to see analysis of few hundred cases in various currencies. You know I had a strategy based on fibonacciretracementsbreakout price projections on 6 hour chart.... In 2005 it showed great results even in currencies such as eur/pln (or something like that) on 6hr chart. I started manually testing 2002 Euro it bombed... For statistical purposes you need atleast 25 cases....

[MickMason]

Originally Posted by TraderABC

Mick that is not a proof.

... For statistical purposes you need atleast 25 cases....

Proof? You want proof! Look on any chart for proof it's there in black white (or whatever psychedelic colors people use nowadays) all the proof you could possibly need to show markets are made up of predictable patterns are not rom that's what makes them relatively simple to trade.

25 cases eh how about 4 or 5 thous would that do?


Mick