Lets Talk GBP/USD - For all the GBP/USD traders out there!

[Robdogg23]

I am new to trading forex and am not a professional by any means. What I would like to do is talk strickly GBP/USD as that is the market I have choosen to master. I beleive the if I can master just 1 currency that is all I will need to make some decent money in Forex. If you are a GBP trader real or demo, pro or novice please participate!

1. I would like to discuss the Fundamental factors that cause the GBP/USD to go up and down.

2. I would like to discuss the technicals to see if they can give any good acurate information.

3. I would like to share ideas, strategies, skill and results with other GBP watchers.

4. I want to tear up the GBP forex market to the point where nothing can cause us to make an uninformed decision in the market.


This thread goes out to all us frusterated traders who are willing to put in the time and dedication it takes to understand the GBP market to it fullest.

Please participate with an open mind and a willingness to learn and share ideas. Myself and many who will post will be uneducated and make stupid decisions so please no downtalk. Help us to grow and understand.

And with that said I will start things with where I have left off...

[Robdogg23]

I have been studying GBP/USD for some time. I learned to trade from a company in my area that was looking for people to manage their accounts. The training was intense and would probably cost about $2,000 - $4,000 if it were an advertised thing. Unfortuanly they wanted us to pick up 10k or larger clients which was very hard to do so I stopped.

A few years later, mini accounts have now been created and I am studying the market. I was doing well making about $1000 per day demo trading with a simple system. Due to recent USD decline that system has not been working anymore. I have learned that fundaments at times override the basics of technicals.

My tech analysis was basically riding the 1hr slow stochastic wave with a 15,5,5 setting. When the stochastic reached 70 I prepared to sell, when it reached 20 I prepared to buy. As I said it was working fine until recent news caused the stochastic to stay in the 70 - 80 range for multiple days.

I now turn to fundmentals to help understand when problems like that will rise again in the future. I try to keep up on the economic calender and catch the reports on Bloomberg.

Also I have been looking for any professionals in the market that make a living off the forex market to learn from. So far I have found cornelious luca who seems very knowledable and doesn't seem to make all his money selling so called cutting edge trading software. Please give me your input on this individual, good and bad.

I have posted this at 5:30 PM PST. GBP/USD @ 1.9380

[Robdogg23]

It is 5:30 PST / 8:30 EST / 1:30 GMT

Current GBP/USD price is 1.9375/1.9380

-- Technicals --

My 1 Hour slow Stoch (15,5,5) is at 16.63 (My Signal to be ready and buy)

My 1 hour EMA (80) is giving me a 1.9330 (My Signal saying GBP can reach 1.9330)


-- Fundamentals --
Upcomming Events

11:00PST / 00:00EST / 5:00GMT
JPY Houshold Spending
JPY economic Index
JPY Coincident Index
JPy Teikoku Databanks
Results = Caused GBP to rise to the 1.9505 area

2:00PST / 5:00EST / 10:00GMT
EUR ZEW survey
Results = No Apparent Effect

4:00PST / 7:00EST / 12:00GMT
Eur ECB Weber Speaks
Results = No Apparent Effect

5:30PST / 8:30EST / 13:30GMT
USD Nonfarm Productivity
USD Unit Labor Costs
Results = No Apparent Effect


12:00PST / 15:00EST / 20:00GMT
USD Consumer Credit

Adding 6:00PST / 9:00EST / 14:00GMT
CAD Bank Rate
Result = Left unchange at 2.5% causing GBP to decline to the 1.9410 area

15:50PST / 18:50EST / 23:50GMT
JPY GDP Deflaitor
JPY Money Supply
JPY Broad Liquidity
JPY Bank Lending
JPY GDP
Results = No Apparent Effect



This is the upcomming events for Dec 7th.

My technicals say that GBP will go up...

I am still unclear as to what the fundaments will say. I beleive the JPY, USD and EUR news effects the GBP currency and I

will report in the impacts of the reports.

I would guess that the JPY household spending should have some effect. In concensus is correct is looks like a negative

effect to the JPY economy which I beleive would indicate a rise in GBP (Supports Stoch Technical)

EUR ECB weber I am looking for some market movement all though not sure what impact it will have

USD Nonfarm and Labor I am expecting little to no impact
USD Consumer credit looking at little to no impact

JPY GDP I am looking for a move in the GBP market. Consensus looks to be the same a last Quarter. Maybe a negative impact on

JPY causing GBP to rise.

Overall market outlook for Dec 7th. I am guessing a rise in the GBP. Currently at 1.9382/1.9387 at the end of this post.

Looking for the 1.9475 - 1.9505 area.

This is everything I am taking into consideration for Dec 7ths market. If you have any information about these studies please

post your oppinion and we will see who is correct. Please back up all claims made. Also I am looking for more Technicals to

add to my report. Please let me know what you guys also use to make your informed decision.

[TC]

You reckon the pound is going to rise...??? I think the pound is going to drop like a bat out of hell if the "Hell's triangle on the 15min chart is completed and the pound drops below the high of the past 2 days.

You will therefore have a "hell's triangle" and also a 2B set-up

Rgds.

TC

[euroforex]

KISS. GBPUSD moves in 40 pip increments, whipsaw in 30 pip increments.

I set up an EMA TA - 8,21,55,144,377 that nearly reflects fib ratios - even better on price targets entry/exit

Overall cyclic price trends are seen with in this mathematical correlation on all currencies but each has its own quirks - of course.

Tuesday AM PST/London-NYT lapover - 21/55 crossover for short spot trade at 19484 - target 19417 using the EMA set up on Onada trading platform. This gave me a window of opportunity - 40 pips. However, I woke up late and only took 20 pips on the tail end.

Questions? forex@frontiernet.net No infected emails please.
Rich

[Robdogg23]

TC - What information do you have to back up your claim? What will cause it to fall and when? I see it falling soon but not in the next 24 - 48 hours...


EuroForex - Yes, GBP did drop slightly to the 1.9380 level for a short bit then rose up to the 1.9505 area. What do you think will happen in the next 24 - 48 hours?

[TC]

I am sure you guys must have noticed that the pound dropped about 90 pips shortly after I placed my thread reply that it would drop like a bat out of hell.

The key to the reversal is nothing other than candle reversal recognition. The reversal bar which halted the rise of the pound at 1.9410 was the key. the bar opened and closed outside the bollinger bands. At the same time my oscillator was in extreme overbought area. The high of the same bar was later tested when the pound formed a double top. and next thing it dropped away. the fall was accelerated when it dropped below the previous days's high.

TC

[foroz]

Euroforex

What time frame are you using please? Maybe you could post a chart.



TC

Could you please post a chart so that we can see your "Hell's triangle" on the 15 min chart? What is a 2B set-up?



Regards