Lets Talk GBP/USD - For all the GBP/USD traders out there!

[Robdogg23]

Please post a chart that we can take a look at and post your next forecast...

Thanks

[autofx]

I predict Cable will fluctuate.

[Robdogg23]

Thanks for that bit of wisdom...

Looks like the 1.9505 area was reached today, dropped a bit back down to 1.9450 area.

Look like the news with the CAD Rate decision caused a bit of a drop in price to the 1.9410 and it is now stabalized at 1.9450.

Well lets see what happens tomorrow. Please post your comments on what will happen in tomorrows market. Looks like the 1st bit of news will hit about 9:00PST with the JPY ECO watchers survey. I will post my outlook in a bit.

[Robdogg23]

It is 8:30 PST / 11:30 EST / 4:30 GMT

Current GBP/USD price is 1.9400/1.9405

-- Technicals --

My 1 Hour slow Stoch (15,5,5) is at 12.25 (My Signal to be ready and buy)

My 1 hour EMA (80) is giving me a 1.9385 (My Signal saying GBP can reach 1.9385 and it already has gone to 1.9385)

My technicals say that GBP will go up...



-- Fundamentals --
Upcomming Events

21:00PST / 0:00EST / 5:00GMT
JPY Eco Watchers Survey
(I am unsure on the effect to the market)
RESULT = SLIGHT DECLINE BUT RETURNED TO SAME PRICE

22:00PST / 1:00EST / 6:00GMT
JPY Machine Tool Orders
(If over 48.3% is think GBP will decline, If under 48.3% GBP will rise)
RESULT = SLIGHT DECLINE BUT RETURNED TO SAME PRICE

22:45PST / 1:45EST / 6:45GMT
CHF Unemployment Rate
(If unemployment rate is down GBP will rise)
RESULT = NO APPARENT EFFECT ON GBP

1:30PST / 4:30PST / 9:30GMT
EUR ECB Mersch Speak
(Unsure on what the effect will be to the market)
RESULT = CAUSED GBP TO RISE SLIGHTLY

4:00PST / 7:00EST / 12:00GMT
USD MBA Mort Applications
(If above -5.8% USD will increase in valce causing GBP to decline)
RESULT = CAUSED GBP TO RISE SLIGHTLY

5:15PST / 8:15EST / 13:15GMT
CAD Housing Starts
(If below 225k which indicates a weaker CAD economy, I think GBP will rise)
RESULT = CAUSED A VERY BIG DECLINE IN GBP PRICE DOWN TO THE 1.9180 LEVEL, GBP ALSO QUICKLY ROSE BACK TO THE 1.9400 AREA AFTER DECLINE. I AM UNSURE ON THE REASON FOR THE PRICE RISE.

15:50PST / 18:50EST / 23:50GNT
JPY Current Account Total
(If Less than 1744.3B GBP will rise)
JPY Trade Balance
(Is less than 1436.5B GBP will rise)
RESULT = NO APPARENT EFFECT ON GBP




This is the upcomming events for Dec 8th.


Overall market outlook for Dec 8th. I am guessing a rise in the GBP. Currently at 1.9380/1.9385 at the end of this post.
I am think the market will go back over the top again reaching the 1.9505 - 1.9550 area.
Looking to buy under the 1.9400 area. If we keep up the slight decline, maybe I can buy in at 1.9350 and sell at 1.9550 area for a 200pip win.
This is everything I am taking into consideration for Dec 8ths market. If you have any information about these studies or fundaments please post your opinion and we will see who is correct. Please back up all claims made. Also I am looking for more Technicals to add to my report. Please let me know what you guys also use to make your informed decision. will go.


THIS POST WAS UPDATED WITH THE GBP RESULTS ON 12/8/04 @ 11:28PM PST

[TC]

Hi Guys,

My techs tell me the first most likely pound bounce will be in the 1.9360 area and then if that does not hold then then after the 1-2-3 pattern this morning the floorboards of hell will be a beautifull 1.9230.

TC

[Robdogg23]

Not exactly what I wanted to happen today. Canadas Housing starts caused a big dip in GBP down to a good low 1.9100 area. Ouch!!!

But it seems to rise back up a few hours later. I am not sure why. If any knows please let me know.

I will post Dec 9ths outlook soon.

Help me figure out GBP!!! Don't read this and pass this by, I would really like to have more people involved...

[Robdogg23]

It is 11:00 PST / 2:00 EST / 7:00 GMT

Current GBP/USD price is 1.9300/1.9305

-- Technicals --

My 1 Hour slow Stoch (15,5,5) is at 37 on a down trend (My Signal GBP will drop and possible rise in the near future)

My 1 hour EMA (80) is giving me a 1.9350 (My Signal saying GBP can reach 1.9350 on the up trend)

My technicals are mixed with a near term drop and a near future rise in price



-- Fundamentals --
Upcomming Events

21:00PST / 00:00EST / 5:00GMT
JPY MACHINE ORDERS
(INFO ALREADY RELEASED AND CAUSED A SLIGHT DECLINE TO THE 1.9300 AREA DOWN FROM 1.9350 A FEW HOURS AGO)

1:00PST / 4:00EST / 9:00GMT
EUR ECB DEC MONTHLY REPORT
(UNSURE ON THE EFFECT)

1:30PST / 4:30EST / 9:30GMT
GBP TRADE BALANCE
(CENSENSUS HAS A NEGATIVE OUTLOOK WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A DECLINE IN THE GBP PRICE)

4:00PST / 7:00EST / 12:00GMT
GBP BOE ANNOUNCES RATE DECISION
(EXPECTING AN UNCHANGED RATE, NOT SURE ON THE EFFECT. POSSIBLE INCREASE IN GBP)

5:30PST / 8:30EST / 13:30GMT
USD IMPORT PRICE INDEX
USD EXPORT PRICE INDEX
USD JOB LOSS
(EXPECTING A DECREASE IN IMPORT/EXPORT CAUSING GBP TO RISE)

5:30PST / 8:30EST / 13:30GMT
CAD NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX
(EXPECTING A NO CHANGE BUT POSSBILE POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR CAD CAUSING GBP TO DECLINE)

7:00PST / 10:00EST / 15:00GMT
USD WHOLESALE INV
USD WHOLESALE SALES
(POSSIBLE DECREASE CAUSING GBP TO RISE)

14:00PST / 17:00EST / 22:00GMT
EUR ECB PAPADEMOS SPEAKS
(UNKNOWN EFFECT ON GBP)
CAD BOE GOV DODGE SPEAKS
(UNKNOWN EFFECT)

15:50PST / 18:50EST / 23:50GMT
JPY DOMESTIC CGPI
JPY EXPORT PRICE INDEX
JPY IMPORT PRICE INDEX
(POSSBILE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK FOR JPY CAUSING GBP TO RISE)





This is the upcomming events for Dec 9th.


Overall market outlook for Dec 9th. I am guessing a slight drop over the next few hours until the GBP BOE Rate decision is released. Currently at 1.9275/1.9280 at the end of this post.

Looking to buy at the 1.9250 - 1.9225 area and sell it back at 1.9350 - 1.9400 area. There is a possible rise to the 1.9505 if all the news turns out in favor of GBP.

This is everything I am taking into consideration for Dec 8ths market. If you have any information about these studies or fundaments please post your opinion and we will see who is correct. Please back up all claims made. Also I am looking for more Technicals to add to my report. Please let me know what you guys also use to make your informed decision.

Not many have posted back yet, I would really enjoy some second opinions and some good arguments pro and con and maybe some new insights and ideas to take into consideration when deciding where the market will go.

[TC]

Hi Robdogg23,

My techs suggest a further drop in GBP. Keep the techs simple as possible.
1.) Whenever there is a consolidation or reversal look for a pattern. The market is driven by a lot of fundamentals etc.etc and they show up in the charts as patterns. So in essence if you can recognise the patterns you don't need the fundamentals.
2.) If (1) above happens and the market goes below 1.9210 the 2nd shoulder of the head and shoulders will have formed. This will set the market up to go to a 50% retracement of the move from 1.8525 to 1.9510. The 50% target will therefore be 1.9020

I hope this helps.

Rgds.

TC