Most (if not all) Fundamental analysis is a waste.

[TraderABC]

On Friday APril 1st (oops I made a typo... I was sleepy at the time of making this post),2005, highly pound positive and dollar negative news came out... Fundamental analysis was screaming SELL USD! Buy pound, yet price moved higher....


(CIPS manufacturing index) In Great Britain for march was 52.0 (previous values werechanged from 51.8 to 51.6). Oil price in NY rose by 2.40 dollars to 57.70 a barrel, a 21 year high. Non-farm payrolls in USA for was lower... Michigan sentiment index fell... US indexes have felt... But FTSE 100 (British stock exhchange index) has risen.


This has happened often....


also on 13.05.2005г. on GBPUSD , USD has risen from 1.8583 to 1.8481 (100+ pips) just in NY session when there were NEGATIVE news in the US. Similiar with Cad, and USD/JPY has risen due to NEGATIVE DOLLAR NEWS on that day....

[cyberwave]

Originally Posted by TraderABC

On Friday July 1st,2005, highly pound positive and dollar negative news came out... Fundamental analysis was screaming SELL USD! Buy pound, yet price moved higher....


(CIPS manufacturing index) In Great Britain for march was 52.0 (previous values werechanged from 51.8 to 51.6). Oil price in NY rose by 2.40 dollars to 57.70 a barrel, a 21 year high. Non-farm payrolls in USA for was lower... Michigan sentiment index fell... US indexes have felt... But FTSE 100 (British stock exhchange index) has risen.


This has happened often....


also on 13.05.2005г. on GBPUSD , USD has risen from 1.8583 to 1.8481 (100+ pips) just in NY session when there were NEGATIVE news in the US. Similiar with Cad, and USD/JPY has risen due to NEGATIVE DOLLAR NEWS on that day....

I could not agree with you more man,...god knows i have been burnt a lot because of fundamental analysis and when i stopped using it COMPLETELY i finally started making some winnings,... "i still follow the non farm payroll tho,..lol who doesn't "

proving your point,..right now everything says sell USD ..... oil is up at $70+ a barrel and hurrican katrina did what it did in losses,..and the USD is climbing up vigorously against everything

i say fundamental analysis is useful for a 1 year out look,..but if u want to expose your money in an option for one year or more,..i think it is very unwise since many surprises can surge in one year

[psytrader]

Originally Posted by TraderABC

On Friday July 1st,2005, highly pound positive and dollar negative news came out... Fundamental analysis was screaming SELL USD! Buy pound, yet price moved higher....


(CIPS manufacturing index) In Great Britain for march was 52.0 (previous values werechanged from 51.8 to 51.6). Oil price in NY rose by 2.40 dollars to 57.70 a barrel, a 21 year high. Non-farm payrolls in USA for was lower... Michigan sentiment index fell... US indexes have felt... But FTSE 100 (British stock exhchange index) has risen.


This has happened often....


also on 13.05.2005г. on GBPUSD , USD has risen from 1.8583 to 1.8481 (100+ pips) just in NY session when there were NEGATIVE news in the US. Similiar with Cad, and USD/JPY has risen due to NEGATIVE DOLLAR NEWS on that day....

First of all,...great post. You have taken a broad sample of fundamental indicators and formed an oppinion on each of them. Your making a mental checklist and weighing the odds. You couldnt be closer to the art of the game.

With all due respect; I see two problems with this.

First, if Im not mistaken,....the chart is from April fools day (april 1) and you are talking about July 1st. (please clarify if this is not the case)

Second, you made no mention of bonds in the US, Germany, and the UK.
The bond market will always trump the stock market for the volume of cash flow unless the stock market is doing something insane.

Information moves cash,....cash moves price.

The bond markets (IMHO) are the best indicator of where the cash is moving in the event that nothing earth-shaking is happening in another market.

For example, if Michigan sentiment fell,....did it fall more than expected?
If it fell as expected then its not a market mover, just a red flag to watch for a change in bond sentiment and gold sentiment.

Regards

PSY

[TraderABC]

Originally Posted by psytrader

First of all,...great post. You have taken a broad sample of fundamental indicators and formed an oppinion on each of them. Your making a mental checklist and weighing the odds. You couldnt be closer to the art of the game.

I could have made more examples using more indicators, I just posted some so that tyou would now be overwhelmed.

First, if Im not mistaken,....the chart is from the 4th of January and you are talking about July 1st. (please clarify if this is not the case)
PSY

Its friday April 1st,2005. 4th of January is Tuesday.
I know in some countries it is written 4/1/2004 and in some it would be 1/4/2004.

[SoundFX]

Guys, these "waste" threads are a waste.

Successful trading has less to do with TA or FA, and more to do with MM and the trader him/herself. Stop arguing. You won't be able to prove a negative proposition. Why don't we start a thread called, "Prove to me that God does NOT exist." There's no solution. "Prove to me that chocolate pigs wearing fake moustaches are NOT controlling the markets from within the bowels of Saturn".

OK, maybe that was weird. I've been staring at charts too long. Good day.

-SFX

[TraderABC]

Originally Posted by SoundFX

Guys, these "waste" threads are a waste.

Successful trading has less to do with TA or FA, and more to do with MM and the trader him/herself. Stop arguing. You won't be able to prove a negative proposition. Why don't we start a thread called, "Prove to me that God does NOT exist." There's no solution. "Prove to me that chocolate pigs wearing fake moustaches are NOT controlling the markets from within the bowels of Saturn".

OK, maybe that was weird. I've been staring at charts too long. Good day.

-SFX

Money Management is important. It can ruin a great trading system, but it CANNOT MAKE IT BETTER! You have nerves of steel , but a poor system with which you will loose.

ABout "more to do with Trader him/herself" phrase, are you saying that those guys got lucky? That is what you are implying.

[fat pirate]

Originally Posted by psytrader

First of all,...great post. You have taken a broad sample of fundamental indicators and formed an oppinion on each of them. Your making a mental checklist and weighing the odds. You couldnt be closer to the art of the game.

With all due respect; I see two problems with this.

First, if Im not mistaken,....the chart is from April fools day (april 1) and you are talking about July 1st. (please clarify if this is not the case)

Second, you made no mention of bonds in the US, Germany, and the UK.
The bond market will always trump the stock market for the volume of cash flow unless the stock market is doing something insane.

Information moves cash,....cash moves price.

The bond markets (IMHO) are the best indicator of where the cash is moving in the event that nothing earth-shaking is happening in another market.

For example, if Michigan sentiment fell,....did it fall more than expected?
If it fell as expected then its not a market mover, just a red flag to watch for a change in bond sentiment and gold sentiment.

Regards

PSY

Ok psytrader, bond market could give you indications for currencies.
But.....What moves bon market ? ?
hhummmmm?

[SoundFX]

Originally Posted by TraderABC

Money Management is important. It can ruin a great trading system, but it CANNOT MAKE IT BETTER! You have nerves of steel , but a poor system with which you will loose.

ABout "more to do with Trader him/herself" phrase, are you saying that those guys got lucky? That is what you are implying.

TraderABC, I have to respectfully disagree and say that money management can make just about ANY system better. In fact, I would go as far as to say that money management is more important than the system it governs.

As far as getting "lucky", no that's not what I meant. What I meant was that a trader's ability to interpret and assimilate information, whether it be FA, TA, or tape reading, is more important than which of those "indicators" he/she uses. Read Market Wizards and you'll find successful traders all trading using different methods of analysis. What this tells me is that the TRADER is more important than the system. So its kind of pointless to argue that TA or FA is a "waste" of time. Obviously, neither one is a waste. And both are a waste.