Most (if not all) Fundamental analysis is a waste.

[psytrader]

Originally Posted by fat pirate

Ok psytrader bond market could give you indications for currencies.
But.....What moves bon market ? ?
hhummmmm?

(Just for you pirate...in my most sarcastic tone)

Today the dem is driven by high oil . Tomorrow by overbought gold . Friday by economic data. Next week....who knows?

We have a target of 2 to 9 days on a trade. With this in mind...

Put the 10 year t note on a 1 hour chart with a 144 sma

Is price above or below the 144 sma?

Whats that you say?

The german bund is also above the 144 sma on a 1 hour chart? the dollar still rises?

Now you underst the blinding girth magnitude of the US treasury market; the awesome power of dem created by a higher yield.

Look for the bund above the 144 the t-note to be below the 144... then you have a broad sweeping suggestion for positive euro sentiment.

That is...as long as no other markets are doing anything silly. (i.e; the dow hits 12000)

Money talks Sh** walks....my job in fundamentals is not to follow the flow of news. My job is to follow the flow of money that is moved by the news.

If I want to profit hot breaking headlines then I should trade oil penny stocks.

Im looking to ride the tide for 2 to 9 days now.

Im so completely done with all of the intraday 20 pip chasing B-S on this site. I started forex with an oil mentality instead of a cash flow analysis mentality. This is what makes the difference.

I leverage 10:1 Im up 429% in the last six weeks since I stopped trying to find a new entry point every d**n day. Consequently it took me 10 months to see the account quadruple the first time.

As I write the t-note is up... gold is going for the cellar...oil is up. 2 outa 3 aint bad. Im long dollars with a little help some S&R TA.

Keep at it. Its so worth it when you get there.

Regards

PSY

[TraderABC]

Originally Posted by SoundFX

TraderABC I have to respectfully disagree say that money management can make just about ANY system better. In fact I would go as far as to say that money management is more important than the system it governs.

As far as getting "lucky" no that's not what I meant. What I meant was that a trader's ability to interpret assimilate information whether it be FA TA or tape reading is more important than which of those "indicators" he/she uses. Read Market Wizards you'll find successful traders all trading using different methods of analysis. What this tells me is that the TRADER is more important than the system. So its kind of pointless to argue that TA or FA is a "waste" of time. Obviously neither one is a waste. both are a waste.

I can program an automatic system make my charting program backtest it. The results will be with 0 emotion 100% rule adherence. But if the results are not financially viable what can be changed? Only the system because other things (psychology every second monitoring the trade) are taken care off.

Why I am big on backtesting? So that I could in few minutes or hours see how a certain system would have performed many years ago. If it did well then I would consider using it live (on demo or real).


Again if the system can only give you XXX of profit vs YYY drawdown you can't change the ratio without changing the system (doubling lots or using less lots would not change the proportion unless you gave a filter to use more lots here less there which is a change in system).

[fat pirate]

Originally Posted by psytrader

(Just for you pirate...in my most sarcastic tone)

Today the dem is driven by high oil . Tomorrow by overbought gold . Friday by economic data. Next week....who knows?

We have a target of 2 to 9 days on a trade. With this in mind...

Put the 10 year t note on a 1 hour chart with a 144 sma

Is price above or below the 144 sma?

Whats that you say?

The german bund is also above the 144 sma on a 1 hour chart? the dollar still rises?

Now you underst the blinding girth magnitude of the US treasury market; the awesome power of dem created by a higher yield.

Look for the bund above the 144 the t-note to be below the 144... then you have a broad sweeping suggestion for positive euro sentiment.

That is...as long as no other markets are doing anything silly. (i.e; the dow hits 12000)

Money talks Sh** walks....my job in fundamentals is not to follow the flow of news. My job is to follow the flow of money that is moved by the news.

If I want to profit hot breaking headlines then I should trade oil penny stocks.

Im looking to ride the tide for 2 to 9 days now.

Im so completely done with all of the intraday 20 pip chasing B-S on this site. I started forex with an oil mentality instead of a cash flow analysis mentality. This is what makes the difference.

I leverage 10:1 Im up 429% in the last six weeks since I stopped trying to find a new entry point every d**n day. Consequently it took me 10 months to see the account quadruple the first time.

As I write the t-note is up... gold is going for the cellar...oil is up. 2 outa 3 aint bad. Im long dollars with a little help some S&R TA.

Keep at it. Its so worth it when you get there.

Regards

PSY

houooowww yaa.
Many thanks for this magisterial lecon.
master er doctor psy

[fat pirate]

429% in six weeks.leverage 10 = 42.9% unleverage in the past 1 half month in a august tight rangy market.keep on going mate.
I'm quite sure now: Soros is definitively an hasbeen.

[psytrader]

Originally Posted by fat pirate

429% in six weeks.leverage 10 = 42.9% unleverage in the past 1 half month in a august tight rangy market.keep on going mate.
I'm quite sure now: Soros is definitively an hasbeen.

Ehhh Hemm...I dont think that Soros is quite past his prime yet.

Just another addendum. I use this method to trade eurusd gbpusd usdchf.

The yen works on its own set of fundamentals that I quite htly havent figured out yet. So I wouldnt use this to bet the farm on asian currencies.

I also have not looked at exotic crosses....just european majors vs USD.

Jack of all trades is master of none?
(Pun intended)

Regards

PSY

[finbo]

Originally Posted by TraderABC

On Friday APril 1st (oops I made a typo... I was sleepy at the time of making this post)2005 highly pound positive dollar negative news came out... Fundamental analysis was screaming SELL USD! Buy pound yet price moved higher....


(CIPS manufacturing index) In Great Britain for march was 52.0 (previous values werechanged 51.8 to 51.6). Oil price in NY rose by 2.40 dollars to 57.70 a barrel a 21 year high. Non-farm payrolls in USA for was lower... Michigan sentiment index fell... US indexes have felt... But FTSE 100 (British stock exhchange index) has risen.


This has happened often....


also on 13.05.2005г. on GBPUSD USD has risen 1.8583 to 1.8481 (100+ pips) just in NY session when there were NEGATIVE news in the US. Similiar with Cad USD/JPY has risen due to NEGATIVE DOLLAR NEWS on that day....

Hi TraderABC

I have to agree with u. Sometime in april when payrolls data were published i lost about 5000$ just because of failure of Euro to rise despite the negative data for $. that payrolls data were really bad.

Since that time I am using FA but more emphasis is on TA.

I have also question does anybody use options to hedge his investment???

[bobnat]

Originally Posted by finbo

Hi TraderABC

I have to agree with u. Sometime in april when payrolls data were published i lost about 5000$ just because of failure of Euro to rise despite the negative data for $. that payrolls data were really bad.

Since that time I am using FA but more emphasis is on TA.

I have also question does anybody use options to hedge his investment???

The problem is that you assume there is a linear cause effect that governs the market. As in your example above just because the news was bad it doesn't mean the currency will react the way you think it should. The numbers mean nothing it's how the traders perceive the numbers how they choose to act upon their perception. Trading is like chess. The beginner only looks as you did at one move at a time. The good players traders are looking 3 or more moves ahead.

It's all about PERCEPTION.

Don't ever forget that you are trading against people who are acutely aware of who they are trading against who are as sharp cunning as they come who's only goal is take money other people. Trading is not a team sport it's not an altruistic endeavor it certainly isn't as simple as "hey the numbers suck the dollar's got to go down."


Nat

[TraderABC]

Originally Posted by bobnat

The problem is that you assume there is a linear cause effect that governs the market. As in your example above just because the news was bad it doesn't mean the currency will react the way you think it should. The numbers mean nothing...

In that case does it make sense to analyze the news then? Maybe just focus on TA ( such methods).

Don't ever forget that you are trading against people who are acutely aware of who they are trading against who are as sharp cunning as they come who's only goal is take money other people. Trading is not a team sport it's not an altruistic endeavor it certainly isn't as simple as "hey the numbers suck the dollar's got to go down."
Nat

I agree 100% with you. I actually read a good site that was talking about those things. It is so sad ( so good marketing stpoint) that no guru's talk about whom you are trading against. Why do you think that big banks who can hire dozens of best financial mathematicians would loose to someone who is just out "Forex for beginners" course. Why do you think that you can outperform the banks I mean who has the faster computer you or the Bank of America? 99.9% of the courses books say the same d**rn thing over over again. If everybody knows to "watch for divergence or price pattern x" who will take the other side of the trade? Somebody has to pay the 10% winners since those winners earn millions/billions it means that millions/billions change h every day. Some joe/jane accounts rarelly go above 100000s it means that there has to be countless loosers which is what many brokers smart people try to produce through the same d**n courses...

This is why I am asking so many tough questions on the forums...