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Old 12-04-2006, 22:24   #17
Coral Shores
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Re: A question for the experienced few "truly" successful traders out there...

Quote:
Originally Posted by SoundFX
Dear "Truly" Successful Traders

Now my thoughts lean more towards using nothing at all besides bare-ass price charts. I'm getting the distinct feeling that trading well is akin to how Michelangelo performed sculpture you have to strip away strip away the charts (a block of marble) until a simple method becomes apparent. I have little doubt now that I can trade perfectly well with nothing but price charts alone. It is just that simple.

Just wondering if anyone else who is a consistently "successful" trader has had this experience as well. I'm totally leaning toward basing all my trade decisions on nothing more than bare OHLC price charts. The geometry seems so simple now after having cluttered my charts my brain with extraneous graphical indicators. That said there will still be losing trades mis-"calculations". I'm not saying I've found the PERFECT method just the simplest for me most apparent. Utilizing price structure coupled with years of cultured discretion prudent MM seems the "Holy Grail" I've sought for so long. it is simplicity itself. Anybody else had this revelation? Curious.

-SFX

Yes you can be a truly successful trader with "simple" yet so complex price charts alone. Many have done it.

You hear about some of them but to trade in such a manner requires a LOT of research into patterns I am not talking about th everyday Head Shoulders etc but really understing the ebb flow. That research never ends either. For many people it is easier to use an indicator that gives "clear" signals.

Can you elaborate a little regarding using only OHLC charts?
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Old 13-04-2006, 00:17   #18
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Re: A question for the experienced few "truly" successful traders out there...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Coral Shores
Can you elaborate a little regarding using only OHLC charts?

My short 7 year experience leans toward simple support/resistance trades via OHLC. Anyone else?

-S
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Old 13-04-2006, 00:30   #19
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Re: A question for the experienced few "truly" successful traders out there...

Quote:
Originally Posted by SoundFX
My short 7 year experience leans toward simple support/resistance trades via OHLC. Anyone else?

-S

I guess what I am trying to underst is if you would be looking at a chart of OHLC bars to determine support resistance or looking at a day in isolation?
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Old 13-04-2006, 03:56   #20
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Re: A question for the experienced few "truly" successful traders out there...

For S/R (major trendlines horizontal s/r lines) I use MWD4hr. I have a hard time trusting the smaller timeframes. I give more credence to the biggest timeframe work my way down.

A thing I learned recently is to look for Fibonacci clusters. Plot the major Fib retracements look for price reacting with clusters.

A similar tool I use is a Support indicator. I am not sure how it works but it looks back 100 periods puts a dot at major price levels. I plot a horizontal line at each dot in all the timeframes you get really good s/r. It marks all S/R that price has spent alot of time respecting etc..
If you start with this indicator at weekly work your way down thru each timeframe drawing horizontal lines at each dot working down to 15min. When you zoom back out to daily you will notice clusters at certain levels. It seems price really likes to cluster at certain levels. You can then trade off these levels with pretty reliable signals.

You can also use rews pitchfork the median lines usually show S/R.

I guess just take a little time with everything that has to do with S/R find what your eyes can relate with. Pick something then learn everything you can about it forwards backwards.

I spent alot of time reading everything about rews pitchforks (median lines) it is my next thing I want to master.

Carol Shores- You mentioned chart patterns. I bought Thomas Bulkowski Getting started chart patterns. It has to be the best 19.95 I ever spent on a book. Bulkowski really knows his game.

I am just unsure if I should spend alot of time really memorizing all the patterns. I mean we all know head/shoulders triangles flags IBD cup n hle. It seems you could spend a lifetime learning all the little angles. I mean I only have so much time you want to study something that has the biggest impact on your profit margin. later!
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Old 13-04-2006, 04:24   #21
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Re: A question for the experienced few "truly" successful traders out there...

Here is a screenshot of eur/usd after I have used that support indicator in each timeframe( if anybody knows the correct name of this indicator please tell!). It shows the major price levels that price has respected.

This also makes a point that I was making about using indicators charts. After I have spent that time using that indicator in each timeframe I get that picture. But I can tell you that anybody who just takes the time to really look at the price action alone could have drawn those lines by sight. These indicators only tell you what you could have figured out if you took the time to really try read what the chart is telling you.!
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Old 14-04-2006, 00:15   #22
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Pure (fx) trading research for dummies - 101

Hi 7thSignalTrader

I should be able to answer my questions myself with some time but I regard experienced advice as part of an efficient learning process that eventually leads to useful research.

My question is very basic for I haven't started looking at the market outside of the realm of TA yet; I've mostly been messing around. Do you find that softwares such as A m i b r o k e r are powerful enough/adapted tools to study the markets other stpoints? If so which would you recommend/speak badly of? If not are MathLab such any better tools?

Regarding (once) fancy computational approaches did you find stuffs like GA NN AI in general of any use? I'm at a total loss there.

More critical I think are the fields to borrow ; are good old stats & non linear dynamics more than enough? What is your take on self similarity? game theory?

More generally I would value a few specific pointers regarding your travel.

If I sound like I don't know what I'm talking about that is correct. But I do know what scientific method research mindset are.

Any thoughts appreciated.

Ogeima.

Last edited by Ogeima : 14-04-2006 at 01:28.
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Old 14-04-2006, 02:26   #23
7thSignalTrader
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Re: A question for the experienced few "truly" successful traders out there...

Quote:
Originally Posted by davidtst
Hello 7thSignal

Thanks for your sharing.

I wonder how old are you...You wise smart confident in trading with 93% accuracy.

Hmmm trading in forex is must more difficult than doing PHD.

Thanks.

David


Trading is only as difficult as the level of accuracy that you desire the speed at which you desire to grow your equity.

What’s the point of trading anyway?

I could have remained in either of the two previous careers that I had going for me at the time I began taking trading seriously. I made $150k a year in the software business thought I was very happy. But was it really all about the “money”? what is “money” good for anyway? I don’t view money in the same way that I used to several years ago for good reason. It is no longer an obstacle to any thing I could ever want or need in life. I’m fortunate to have all that I will ever need the ability to generate more at the click of a mouse. That’s real financial independence but what good is having that kind of power control over one’s financial life truly?

What’s the point of money? Why do we spend so much time trying to get it then more time worrying about how to protect it once we have it? What good is the almighty dollar?

Well it goes a little bit like this: Money is not what I want. It is dirty (filthy) as it passes through the hs of people who cough sneeze all over it all over the world. People stick it into places that might make you puke if you were told while eating dinner. It smells terrible. It is physically pointless very fragile it piles up on the floor if you don’t go out spend it. So really – what’s the point of money anyway why do we go after it with such vigor? One word:

[b]Options.[b]

That’s why we go after money so hard. Not because money itself is all that great for it has no real redeeming value intrinsic to itself. Instead what I am concerned about is being able to have as many options in life as I possible can. The options buy a cookie cutter home in a sub-division or several hundred acres away the chatter build a 20000 square foot mansion. The options to take the bus or another form of public transportation wherever I needed to go each day or to drive a 206 MPH Porsche Carerra GT super car (watching the speed limit whenever possible - lol) wherever I needed to go each day. The option to buy a commercial lines ticket to take me to my long range destination or the option to either fly myself there in my own craft or use a Netjets account have a limo pick me up to take me to the port. To each peanut butter jelly swiches each night for dinner or filet minion with fresh vegetables a fine sip of wine. To harbor all my cash to myself until the day I die or to become the founder of several non-profit organizations dedicated to helping people who cannot help themselves in life. To build another golf course or to build a much needed Children’s Hospital to see that the children of this world have dedicated proper medical/health special concerns care when they need it.

No matter what the goals are we all want options in life not money. Options offer flexibility we all want to live flexible lives. Options enable you to do for others what they otherwise cannot do for themselves. Options allow you to help people reach their true potential in life to be an example to them to never give up on their dreams to have yes – more options in life.

So before you run off start building that “magical” “holy grail” (Traders Grail) of a trading system. Stop. Think about exactly the way you want your options to look 1 year 5 years 10 years 40 years down the road. Then Stop. think about what you want your own community state country planet to look like some 75 to 100 years down the road when you are long gone the scene. Decide what your long range goals look like the kind of funding that will be necessary to get them off the ground. Decide on what kind of time-table you have for building your future then determine how many pips per day it will take to get you there. What kind of leverage will you need on each trade. How much will you need to reinvest back into each subsequent trade how much will you need to pull out to live off of until you can hit larger lot sizes per trade. Plan plan plan your revenue growth build a Revenue Model that shows you when things should happen how long it will take you to get there so that your plans can be MEASURED.

No good plan goes UN-MEASURED. The Revenue Model will help you establish your metrics refine them so that you will know at a glance at the end of each week of trading whether or not you are actually on plan or not even close to your designated targets. Like a laser guided missile once you find yourself your trading progress off course make fine tuning adjustments to your trading system Revenue Model until you start guiding in on your stated objective long range. Above all else execute execute execute daily with relentless persistence with a psychological core that is unflappable even during the worst of trading weeks.

Eventually you will find yourself among the top 1% in the business that do this thing as naturally as most people breathe drink water. Until this business becomes a “natural” everyday “boring” occurrence without each trade being a cidate for st-in on TNT’s Drama schedule then you have not reached the stard required for long term consistent success. Each trade needs to be utterly boring without Academy Award Winning type extensions associated with it or something is definitely wrong with what you are doing. Getting to that level takes time patience a belief that it can be done.

If you want to sweat-out every single trade drink bottles of Pepto Bismal like you were slamming back shots of Whiskey then that option is available to you as well.

I’m old enough to know how to do this thing the right way yet young enough to be able to work on my “options” to finally answer your question.

To get to the boring stage accuracy to specified targets or at least break even will be required. Trades cannot be boring when you are losing money all the time. Accuracy solves problems. Money Management only matters when you actually have money to manage. LOL! No accuracy - there will be no money to manage over the long term. The higher the accuracy the more difficult it will be to build "that" type of trading system. Low accuracy = low expectations which translates into low slow capital growth far less consistency over long hauls. I prefer geometric growth of capital. That means non-linear equity growth. That is rapid high speed high-performance growth. Can’t get there on 2 lots per day at 2% cost basis or with low trading accuracy to a specified target low break even performance.

You don’t need all the pips that exist between here the next observable supernova. Just a few pips per day with increased lot sizing increased accuracy increased reinvestment per trade coupled to high signal availability will help to grow capital at an alarming rate. But it cannot be done the same way with 50% to 65% trading accuracy.

Setting the right long range goals (options) will lead one down the correct path to a custom trading system that nets the number of pips required each day to meet the qualifications of the goals (options) desired. Then work that plan day after day until your goals (options) become physical manifestations of your thought process.

I think it was the founder of Starbucks who once said something like: your dreams can’t become a reality if you don’t dream big enough. Or something like that. The point is this: don’t just “dream”. Anybody can do that. But when you dream – dream BIG. Then have the guts be crazy enough to actually believe that you can pull it off.

Did you know the Einstein used to take naps almost everyday just so that he could “dream”? Did you know that it was inside a “dream” where he actually discovered the concepts that would allow him to complete E~MC2 in all of its glorious simplicity? Lee Iacocca had a dream. Martin Luther King Jr. had a dream. Many giants of the 18th 19th 20th 21st centuries all had dreams. The Wright Brothers had a dream.

Nothing wrong with dreaming as long as the dream is BIG (Huge) one is willing to get out of bed work their butt off to bring it to fruition.
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Old 14-04-2006, 03:12   #24
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Re: Pure (fx) trading research for dummies - 101

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogeima
Hi 7thSignalTrader

…Do you find that softwares such as A m i b r o k e r are powerful enough/adapted tools to study the markets other stpoints? If so which would you recommend/speak badly of? If not are MathLab such any better tools?

Or Neuro Shell Trader (NST) Trading Solutions etc. None of them provided the level of “creative flexibility” that I needed to build my particular trading system that was mostly because of structural limitations built into those applications. Likewise I don’t have a trading “system” in the conventional sense. It used to be but not anymore. It grew developed into an “application” a long time ago has been one ever since. You have to separate out those development platforms that are purely designed to assist you in building upon already existing conventional TA tools those that are designed to assist you optimizing trading strategies using conventional TA tools artificial intelligence engines those that are designed to allow you to create your own “artificial intelligence engine”. I’ve effectively done the latter. My trading application is a new analytical approach to measuring market data. One side of the system does computational analysis on determining the “trend” the other side of the system does computational analysis on predicting the next change in the trend. It does all of this by going inside the trend analyzing what constitutes the “trend”.

So all of the development platforms that were “designed” for the trading community fell short in providing me with the tools I needed because none of the tools I use ever existed before I designed them. So it would have been impossible for me to use those platforms. My only other alternatives were Excel or moving to the OOP environment. Excel offered total flexibility. In Excel you have to create – nothing is created for you. Excel knows nothing about trading you have to teach Excel how to trade how to think. That enables total creative flexibility. With Excel I also have no compile re-compile time consuming problems associated with developing in a pure OOP environment. With C++ once you create an executable (.exe file type) you must then compile the code before you can run the application. I make code changes on the fly need to see the results instantly I don’t have time to sit around going to compiler issues waiting for development applications to load unload in memory. With Excel I can change code directly inside the object providing the output I can make object to object redirects in the code on the fly without recompiling anything see the results in real-time. You cannot do that in the OOP environment.

So for me Excel provide the perfect platform for doing the core/primary raw data research that C++ /or Java could never have provided at the pure research Indicator building level. Now OOP would be a good transition platform since now the system has been ratified solidified over the years. But during the research development phases OOP simply would not have worked out.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogeima
More critical I think are the fields to borrow ; are good old stats & non linear dynamics more than enough? What is your take on self similarity? game theory?

The objective is to build high-performance Trading Indicators then using those to build corresponding high-performance Trading Signals. Signals come Indicators Indicators come mathematical constructs logical statements (algorithms). At the baselines are your mathematical structures that do all the core level computations on theories you have about price movement – which you obtained through your data analysis study of market data. Everything begins with a theory about possible outcomes. You then build a tools for studying that theory through back-testing its reliability. It you find it to be reliable according to your stards for accuracy then you build an Indicator that tells you whether the core math is pointing Long Short of Mixed (flat). that Indicator you combine it synergize it with other Indicators to build the Signal. Signals are then clustered into larger groups that form Signal Clusters which help to give you down-line density probability inputs for probability calculations about what to expect those signals.

It gets a bit complicated at this stage because the next level is to build Meta Signals. Those are Signals that come other Signals not directly the market data itself. Meta layers are where your logical algorithm really begin to push the system a mere “trend following” system to a predictive model system. that is what I have today. A predictive model trading application. There are several other layers involved as well but these are the baseline steps that I used to build my system.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ogeima
If I sound like I don't know what I'm talking about that is correct. But I do know what scientific method research mindset are.

No problem. I had no clue what I was doing in the beginning either. All I knew is that I was seeing patterns in the data that I could not explain. So I had to create some tools that enabled me to view the market data in a way that I could not view it before. These “views” came basic mathematical concepts then more advanced concepts followed. Eventually I learned how to link Indicators weight synergize them. Along the way I learned many different tricks of the trade in building sub-components within the larger system then I learned how to integrate each sub-component so that it fit into the system effectively. Everything after that was all about tweaking bug fixing refining what had already been built. Eventually the system became to complex to trade it inside the engine. So I had to create a GUI that further refined the output the engine made the trading itself virtually “hs” free. (you can see the GUI in my trade journal).

Good questions! Hope this helps a bit. I like ht questions sincere people trying to improve their trading. Nothing wrong with thinking outside the box moving forward.

Regards.
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