Retractments

[Jetheat]

Thanks for the explanation Mick

At the moment I'm just trading the bunny cross but am finding myself getting whipped around a lot - I need to go to hospital

When you look for short few minute trades at specific levels such as Fibs etc... what do you do if it happens to go the wrong way before it goes the right way?

How many trades do you get in a day generally?

Trading the way you do How many pips on average can be made a month?

Can you give me an example of the tight money management rules you use

Thanks a lot
JH

[MickMason]

Hi JH

Bunny cross I saw that thread started to read it but then got distracted you know what it's like. Guessing what I read it sounds like a filtered ema cross type strategy can't say I'm a great advocate of such systems simply because of the whipsaws you mentioned ( I don't have medical )

Wrong way before the right way - it depends on the individual trade whether it was opened with only partial trade size (ie if the usual trade size is 100k it was opened with only 50k) it gives a bit of room to add to the original position at a better price a good example being a fibs where retracement can often exceed 61.8% but the trade is still valid. Other times like a double top/bottom any breach is clearly not in line with expectation the only sensible option is to close at a loss.

Trades in a day - it varies depending on the market how much time I'm prepared to sit in front of the screen watching. I try pick trading hours which produce reasonable moves such as London open UK data times US data times NY open. More often that not there will be a trade within half an hour if not then I don't go searching. Personally on average I make about 2 or 3 trades a day.

How many pips - again this varies but an average ball-park figure is around 800-1200 pips per month trading around 4 hours a day in hourly sessions.

Money management - I never risk more than 2% of equity on any one trade adjust trade size to suit the stop for individual trades close losers when they reach that stop irrespective of whether I think the market is going to turn in my favour. Sometimes it does sometimes it doesn't it would be a gamble.

There are countless strategies out there so many opportunities this is one helluva game!

Mick

[Jetheat]

That's great Mick I reckon you should open a thread post charts showing where you entered why.

That would be a great learning tool.

What do you think?

JH

[MickMason]

I'm following your other thread with interest.

I don't think charts of my trades would help anyone very much timing is crucial that's not always possible to show on a screen shot.

All the patterns I mentioned are well documented on here other forex forums TA sites.

Your charts are interesting though...

Mick

[nzbryant]

Hi Mick

Thanks for your posts. Very useful. Thanks.

A question: I often get confused with timeframes - Ill see a set-up in the hourly or 30m- go down to 5m or 1m see the price going in the other direction trade the wrong way or get confused into doing nothing. Do you stick with the 15m regardless of what the 1m is doing? What if they are showing opposite trends?

Second qu: I change position size also on each trade - but how do you do that without losing 20 or 30 seconds to work out stop placement size? (In a fast move I often get rushed into putting trade on with nominal size having to change it later).

Thanks

[Wallace]

TTWSX102: 1 of 2
The term Retracement originates for me in the book ‘Elliott Wave Principle : Key to Market Behavior' by Frost Prechter so I suggest you ask your library if it has a copy study the contents.

The fibonacci levels tool originates Elliott's work is one of the single most reliable tools for targeting price Retracements Corrections Projections.

The 60 min chart is the Primary 'yardstick' for price movement analysis; for Day-to-Days traders it breaks Waves on the Daily chart into more discernable information. Fibonacci levels drawn on the 60 are easily transferable to timeframes down to the 1 min chart for Intrahour/minute traders as well of course as drawing fibo levels on any chart used for trading. As can be seen on the chart the first Green fibo drawn during the week of Sep 17 has remained useful since it was drawn.

The application of the fibo tool is a matter of experience as can be seen it's very important for the Close to be identifiable on price bars (via Moving Average Simple 1)since it can be the Close rather than the HH or LL that's the significant point that 'hits' the fibo level ends that price movement or is used as a drawing point for the fibo.

Understing price movement in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle being able to count Waves — with your frame of reference — means understing what the price is doing a Retracement or Impulse Wave.

[Wallace]

2 of 2:

The Daily chart below illustrates a series of Retracements a1/r1 a2/r2 a3/r3 what the price Retraced to notably the a3/r3/r3 example where both the LL LC were used to target a Retracement level (when the Close is used it often indicates an end of the Wave).
The major A/R fibo Retracement as on the 60 min chart has remained useful since it was drawn.

The 3rd component of analysis is Time. I rely on price Bar Counting found that the Lucas fibonacci series numbers work on the EURUSD while Fibonacci series numbers or Lucas may work on other ps.
Fibonacci series: 1 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144.
Lucas series: 1 4 7 11 18 29 47 76 123 199.

The alternative to BC is having a fibo Time tool to project Time targets.

Price movement analysis is always subjective particularly when using the EWP. While there's a premise in the 60 min chart that a 5th Wave to higher prices exists that appears less so in the Daily while a High to around 1.245 wouldn't be unreasonable it hits the major 61.8% Retracement level 200% Projection which could then mean a decline during BC 11 days to a Low occuring on the US Election date of Nov 2+.

Trust the above assists.

[MickMason]

Hi nzbryant

Which time frames are best is debateable a lot of traders advise looking at the 'bigger picture' to determine longer term trend only ever trade in that direction using shorter time frames to fine-tune entry. It's slightly different with a short term scalping strategy overall trend direction isn't so important as it's the immediate market reaction to a chart pattern being exploited. 15min charts seem to offer some good short term trading opportunities it's relatively unimportant what's happening in 1m or 30m charts. Which time frame(s) are relevant will depend on how long you intend to stay in a trade there's not much benefit looking at the weeklies if you're an intraday player in my opinion a weekly chart may clearly show a short trade while the hourly may show the complete opposite.

There shouldn't really be any rush to enter a trade forming patterns rarely creep up take you by surprise which should leave plenty of time to look at stops potential profit entries trade size. If you aren't given time to plan the trade properly then I'd say give it a miss impulsive trades rarely work out.

Hope that helps

Mick