scenario

[Hawkeye]

Thanks for sharing.
Sounds like 'consistency' is the issue then. Have you been able to trade profitably and CONSISTENTLY? If so, what have been your returns like, and what exposure and risk profile are you taking? What would be "decent returns" do you think?

The idea of junior traders or spotters is a good one. They are called "sub-traders" sometimes. It would relieve the burden of continuously monitoring the market, especially after trades are entered.

[jonsi72]

Thank you for your input BigMacdollar. In the case of an account that size and given the goal to grow the account. What would be an acceptable risk exposure percentage per trade?

I have deviced my own simple formula and in theory it looks sound but I would like some input. I would exposed 10-15% and as account grows I will still exposed same percentage but of a greater account size, example: if my account is 200K, I exposed 15%, I liquidated my trade and now my account is 230k, I will now expose 15% of 230k. This way as my account grows I am able to take advantage of profitable trade with greater volume.

Could some of you, experienced traders, give some advice on this stratergy or if anyone has a better approach?

[Hawkeye]

Sounds a bit high to me. Most traders were talking about 2% of account size to risk per trade, and that is conservative, but probably good if your prime objective is capital preservation.

If you are trading with risk capital, and wish to take advantage of the decent returns possible, especially with a proven methodology, then it is my humble opinion that we could try 5% of risk capital size per trade.

What do you all think, please?

[BigMacDollar]

If so, what have been your returns like, and what exposure and risk profile are you taking? What would be "decent returns" do you think? - Hawkeye

I've gone through the expensive school of learning when it comes to setting reasonable financial targets on a portfolio, and time and error taught me a lot in the process.

In the process I have adopted a slogan which I have introduced to the 430 traders I today mentor - with reasonable success. The slogan is simple . . . returns = risk + exposure + aggression

This allows the trader to diversify different portfolios according to his own risk profile. As an explanation - take the four portfolios I run.

Portfolio 1 - a high risk, high exposure, high expectation test porfolio. This portfolio is run with venture capital I am willing to loose and will in no way alter my financial wellbeing should that happen. This portfolio is run above 50k and should it exceed 250k, then I re-invest the restant above 50k in a more "responsible" porfolio. This portfolio is used to run what I call Trend Acrobatics - a set of clearly defined small time-frame methodologies that pics profits on thrust condition markets. These trading systems are all trading systems that are run 24 hours a day using a trading team with spotters to pic up all the signals and should a "consensus" be achieved amoungst the various signals a position is taken. The position is then placed in a trend and the moment the trend is violated, the position is closed. This method of trading allows for approximately 60 to 90 trades a month with a 67% successrate. The key to capital preservation here is a keen sense of trade management in the first 2 stages of the trade. Exposure here is also 1/100 but only trading 1 lot at any given moment. A 23 month run has averaged 79%/month - but with the greatest loss experienced at 73% of the portfolio due to traders fatigue. Very risky and exhillirating and not too many traders can stomach this environment, but with a 1817% (not compounded) after 23 months, I'm addicted.

Portfolio 2 - a high risk, high greed factor, high expectation yield portfolio. This portfolio is run with venture capital I am willing to loose and will in no way alter my financial wellbeing should that happen. This portfolio is run above 100k and should it exceed 250k, then I re-invest the restant above 100k in a more "responsible" porfolio. This portfolio is run on a 1/100 leverage with the wellknown Indicator 75 trading methodology set-up. The risk factor is levelled according to the previous drawback but should not exceed 15% of the portfolio size (including costs). It allows for approx 4-6 trades per month and is a pure A-type System trade using a trading team with spotters to catch every signal. A 14 month run has yielded 1146% to date. Very risky, but highly rewarding.

Portfolio 3 - a medium risk, medium greed and low expectation portfolio. This porfolio is carefully managed as a "responsible" investment, trading on a leverage of 1:4, exposed capital at 5% and risk/loss factor never exceeding 15% of the portfolio size. The trading environment and discipline is fixed. The methodology is based solely on a defined set of probabilities and growes towards consensus before a position is taken. This approache allows a 83% success ave. on the system and has yielded 14.8%
ave per month over the past 33 months.

Portfolio 4 - a no risk, neutral greed and neutral expectation portfolio. This portfolio is a "blackbox', non-emotional trading environment where all decisions are purely executed on a set of trading rules and market condition set out in complicated logarithms and mathematical sequenses within this Firex "ATM". This system simply processes the data and market feed unemotionally and takes positions without the emotional toll and stresses we as traders endure. The developers of the software that also act as fundmanagers are soo confident with thier system that they gave me a Capital Guarentee ultimately allowing me to participate with no risk ! The system has run for 4 years allowing me a 68% return per annum (after exorbitant fees). The portfolio size here is above $5 milj entry though. I think they reduced the entry size now though.

So yeah - I hope the above will give you some kind of idea what you can expect should you have these type of approaches to risk and preservation on your capital.

[Andy]

BigMacDollar,
What is a "indicator 75" trading system?
Thanks
Andy