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Hope your not disappointed by this answer. I try to filter out complicated analysis. It's not that I don't think it has merit. It's just that it becomes too confusing and contradictory. With that said, I like to keep it as simple as possible. Let's call it Fundatechnical
Yesterday, this trade began to develop for me as follows:
First I look at the fundamental big worldly picture at the moment. You know the story here. Additionally this was a trade considered prior to US open. (More risky). DJ Futures were down consistently all morning despite up beat reports from some of the big boys. This foretold a bad to lackluster day for the $.
Next I verified the trend using long term daily charts to be certain there was not an overiding technical reason not to take the trade. The only negative I saw here was that $/chf was oversold, however, there was a crossover occuring to the downside in the MACD which supported my position.
I then checked my hourly chart which is where I generally make decisions from. There was a downward crossover occuring from an extremely oversold postion as well as an EMA downward cross.
I then usually check major Support/Resistance levels to judge the effectiveness of a move and set my SL and TP according to my trading plan. I do my best not to take a trade if a major S/R level is a blocker, but this is low on my list.
Once the US market opened and there was not a major move against my judgement (I like to watch the Futues prices early), I took the trade.
I know this is not what you were looking for and you old pros are probably rolling your eyes. This is my style. I'm sure there was a little luck involved, but the odds were in my favor which is what it is all about in my opinion.
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Licensed Brokers
Fantastic trade dude!
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