99% success trade

[fxtrader777]

I will provide and example.

we all know that GBPUSD has average daily range at least 100 pips (holiday days excluded).

It makes fast and large move than othe currency pair.
Here is an example how to scalp 20 pips which has 99% success to work out.

We are waiting for London open and when market begins moving we are entering the market with 1 mini lot say we are selling 10K GBPUSD. We place 20 pips buy stop order but with 3 lots, let us assume that this stop was hit, now we are long by 20K, we again place sell stop order of 20 pips but 6 mini lots this case. Let us assume that stop is again hit but we are short now with 40K, and we are repeating it.
I have made backtesting and have found no cases when market did not break out and hit the target.
The importan is that GBPUSD should make at least daily range, and we are trading only after LOndon open. You have almost guaranteed 20 pips.

I hope you understnad what I am talking about. It is like well-known doubling-up method in Casino, but in Casino there is zero too, in Forex there is only two cases: 1 stop 2 target and after london session it is highly expected that price will break out either way.
Let us go back to example
When you were in with 1 mini lot you lost 20 pips, the you were in with 2 lots then 4 lots and then with 8 lots, let us assume that three of them were losers thus 20$ + 40$ + 80$ = 140$, now if last is profitable we are sitting on 160$ which is 20$ net.
This is almost guaranteed, because in the past market did so. We need big range no matter it will be up or down, we need more than 60 pips range in a day.
Of course it is risky but it is 99%.99 probable
comments?

[astro]

This could be a nice strategy indeed.
I think that the secret for it to succeed is money management.
I attached a chart from August 18th:
By "running" your strategy on that day, you will notice that if your first trade of the day was long, you would have been stopped out 5 times (!!!) before the last short trade that hit the target.
5 times means 31 lots! 5 times means that you have to play 32 lots on the last winning trade! That's a total of 63 lots!!!!

Now, that's because you got stopped out "only" 5 times. What would have happened if your stop got hit for the sixth time? You lost 63 lots and need to play 64 now!!!!!!!!!
Man, that's what I call DEEEEEEEEEP pockets.

Now, I'm not saying it's not possible. It has a lot of logic behind it, but money management is the key here and unless you have that right, one lousy day like August 18th will wipe out your account completely.

Astro

PS, have you thought about MM here? I'd love to hear some ideas

[fxtrader777]

Yes I am thinking of it for now,

I think there could be golden rule for this.

BTW is this chart after london open? and how much is Asia range, if Asia range was big then this is flat day

[astro]

Originally Posted by fxtrader777

BTW is this chart after london open? and how much is Asia range, if Asia range was big then this is flat day

Yep, I started "trading" at 7:00 am gmt (8:00 London time).
I don't remember how big the Asian range was, but if you start considering other factors such as the Asian range then this strategy would become more complex than just "buy/sell until you win 20 pips".
You can try reducing the SL to 15 for example and see what happens. This will allow you more stopped out trades before the winner, but on the other hand you will be stopped out more often.
Maybe try to increase the SL to 40 for example and TP 40 pips. This way you'll be less vulnerable to price fluctuations, but you'll have to reduce the size of your position.
This stratedy needs thorough analysis and backtesting.

Astro

[Atomised]

Ok sorry but i think i'm missing something here....what dictates which direction u trade the market ? Like is it if it breaks up out of the Asian range u go long and vice versa ? Maybe if u could give some examples with prices, even if they are hypothical trades. Would just make the whole thing a bit easier for me to understand, now if u included charts that'd be an added bonus !!

[sunabeach]

"Of course it is risky but it is 99%.99 probable
comments?"

I think that say it all.

Weather forecast: Tomorrow - Sunny unless it rains.

[Atomised]

Originally Posted by sunabeach

"Of course it is risky but it is 99%.99 probable
comments?"

I think that say it all.

Weather forecast: Tomorrow - Sunny unless it rains.

LOL is that with the risk of snow and thunder showers too ?

[sunabeach]

Actually I am in South Florida so next couple of days may bring "crazy" weather if Hurricane or Tropical Storm "Ernesto" comes this way, but no matter the weather Risky still won't come close to equaling 99.9% probable. Not even if pigs fly.