USD poll

[novice]

For the week starting Monday, 15/3/2004.

Closes 10:30am Monday Australia Time.

[bearprofits]

Novice,

Thanks for posting the poll, maybe we could have some of the more experienced traders briefly explain their votes?

[mishak]

Well, still in the correction from USD bottoms.
Will have important fundamentals this week:
USA industrial production, capital flows and Fed probably new "wording";
ZEW in Germany, BoE minutes;
some political meetings.
EUR/USD will probably test 1.2075 again - the resistance at 38% retracement from November low.
BoJ will keep the pressure upward to the FY end.

USD - moderate bullish

[GoldChild]

I'm now in the bearish camp again but too late to vote. I did say earlier that I thought the Euro could see 1.15 again but what has been a reliable medium term indicator over the past year and a half is now very close to saying sell $.

It might have a last thrust left in it but I'd watch out for the PPI today. It could knock the $ for six. Also Bush wants it down and might just have had a word with the Japanese.

[novice]

I try and start a USD poll each Saturday for the following week. Closes Monday.

GoldChild

Your last call "time for a USD rally was spot on", any chance of you explaining your methods a little more?

When the EUR/USD breaks out either up or down it is going to be explosive. Other USD pairs appear hamstrung by the EUR/USD.

About the name, do you trade gold?

[GoldChild]

I have made money against the dollar in nearly all currencies. Gold just seems to give a clearer signals (on the graph I put up before). I had targets for 1.35 CAD, 1.3 CHF, ~1.2 EUR. I was off with my YEN at 1.10 so lost when it continued to 112 but I got back in at 109.87 and just covered at 107.05. The pound seems the hardest, 1.666 used to be a strong pivot but it hasn't pulled back as much as the others.

Bill Murphy's mentions of Gold leading the dollar would have netted a nice trade today as gold shot up hours before the dollar went down against the currencies. I don't know the reason for the move but it did work as a leading indicator.

[GoldChild]

Here's the latest chart. The other key I've been using is the resistance at ~90 - 91 on the US Dollar index with more basic TA to try and judge entries, usually with trailing stops on currencies. I've been trading gold a bit between 390 and 402 but building up a core position waiting for that medium term sell signal again. It got me out at 424 last time and the green buy indicators when the DMAs converge have worked since the start of 2002. I'm not sure why this works so well but it does so I use it. Maybe this is the steady decline in the dollar that the central banks want?

[GoldChild]

Here's the same chart of the Euro. As you can see the indicators aren't as reliable and hasn't signalled quite yet, which is why I think the dollar might make one last attempt. You still have to look at short term TA to deal with the volatility which I'm still learning.