There is no such thing as Technical or Fundamental Anaysis

[metal]

Originally Posted by ampris2000

here is something that is simple and will work for you.
if you fail at this then you have a problem.

goal: 10 pips for the week.

put ema 5,10,20,40,50 on a 3 hour chart.

when they are all layered with space in between do a trade.
if 5 is on the bottom and 50 on the top, then sell.(they're all pointing downwards)

if 5 is on the top and 50 on the bottom then buy.(they're all pointing upwards.).

i guarantee you'll make 10 pips a week if you follow this. set your stop loss above the 50 ma.

if the 5 and 10 are intertwined, still make the trade but be careful. if the 5,10,20 are layered (pointing the opposite direction of 40 and 50- with space in between each ma and have crossed the 40 and 50) then it is a reversal. trade in the opposite direction and you'll gain another 10 pips for the week.


of course, you can gain more than 10 pips with this method. i know you won't try it anyway, but there it is.

Thanks ampris2000 but I am already averaging 15-20 pips per day in profits.

regards
Metal

[streetwise]

Depends what you mean .

if you think that TA of FA can spot you winnner after winner like a conveyor belt then clearly that is wrong .

But I have used both TA and FA in my own unique way with some other techniques to reap excellent returns .

[Coastie]

Originally Posted by metal

If we are on the right side of the move, we attribute the success to some fundamental or technical analysis. Being human, we try to find a reason for everything. The same analysis/reasoning might fail the next day.
regards
Metal

You can never look at indicators in isolation to PA. This is the mistake of many. Just because a MA crosses doesn't autmagiclly make it a sure fire trade. But, if PA suggests a move in line with the X-over i.e double tops with lower close, 1-2-3 etc, and/or a major fib or resistance level, then your increasing your odds of this being a winning trade.

[streetwise]

moving averages are bum raps from my experience .

they are just too slow .

[pegasys]

IMO MA's are only too slow on shorter time frames, I use them to trade sucessfully on larger time frames, (in conjunction with other indicators of choice).
Metal: If the makrkets are random and you have no use for technical indicators/fundamentals, how do you know when to get into your trades?

[TraderABC]

Originally Posted by Ageorge

Losers always have excuses or blame on something else, Winners always finds a way to attain their goal. Or you perhaps heard the same as this good old saying “Losers make excuses, Winners find solutions.”

Good phrases!!! Except the fact that you need to be realistic about the nature of the market. The fact is that MOST people (90%+) loose and only a tiny majority "wins". Another fact is that we all have access to same indicators, websites, etc.... Not all of us are gamblers who disregard common (is there such) sense in the markets. Another fact is randomly generated chart is not much different from a stock or a forex chart. What i hate to see is the lack of
tough inner analysis of the markets. As far as statistics concerned, somebody ought to win by pure chance. Of course those people who won will NOT claimed that they were lucky purely because it would put their ego down. People want to look smart not just brainless winners. Smart Statisticians have determined stocks to follow a model close to Random Walk...

Some may say that because these people lost they claimed that markets follow random walk and thus they have defended their ego.

However those who did Win, could have won PURELY by luck and claimed that markets were predictable based on their luck and to defend THEIR ego as well.

I would really love a discussion about Market mechanics with no delusion and with argument more advanced than "Look at that person who made millions with TA" or "look at that chart, how possibly it could follow Random Walk" ?

Anyone read "Fooled By Randomness" by Nassim Taleb?

If a million people play a game where half loose each year and those who win gain 10,000 dollars (from those who lost) then by 19th year one person would
win 190,000$ JUST FROM BEING LUCKY. Now, if that one person constantly reinvests his money, then his wins (19 in a row) would be even higher.


Thank you all.

[ampris2000]

if you're averaging 15-20 pips a day then what are you whining about?

yes, moving averages work great on the longer time frames. on the shorter time frames they're not good at all.

i find the adx/dmi works better for me on the shorter time frames.

[TraderABC]

Originally Posted by ampris2000

if you're averaging 15-20 pips a day then what are you whining about?

yes, moving averages work great on the longer time frames. on the shorter time frames they're not good at all.

i find the adx/dmi works better for me on the shorter time frames.

I have a theory why longer time frames SEEM to work better. A random movement of one candles on lets say daily chart is much greater than random movement on 1 minute chart (obviously)... Thus by cutting your loses and letting winners run, you MAY end up with a positive balance after some time... Nothing here to suggest that one timeframe works and another one doesn't.