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Old 25-09-2005, 17:17   #25
awcapital
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Re: There is no such thing as Technical or Fundamental Anaysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by metal
Thanks ampris2000 but I am already averaging 15-20 pips per day in profits.

regards
Metal

It is VERY HARD to believe that you are averaging 20 pips per day. By "averaging" i take it you make 20 pips day in day out. That's 100 pips a week (not cummulative).

On just risk per trade of 2% 30 pips stop loss size on a $100000 float that amounts to 6.67% return per week (including spread). That equals to 2767% per year compounded return on capital (even more if you compound the daily profits).

So assuming there is no liquidity problem you are actually "averaging 20 pips a day" If you can do it consistently for 3 years cummulatively you would turn your $100000 to $2.1 BILLION dollars.

See where I am getting at ?!?

Last edited by awcapital : 25-09-2005 at 17:21.
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Old 25-09-2005, 19:10   #26
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Re: There is no such thing as Technical or Fundamental Anaysis

He is probably on demo. Or lieing. Or Rich. Or Extrordinarily overleveraged ready to blow out his/her account (likely). Which one is true?
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Old 26-09-2005, 02:50   #27
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Re: There is no such thing as Technical or Fundamental Anaysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by awcapital
It is VERY HARD to believe that you are averaging 20 pips per day.

20 pips a day is hardly earth-shattering. There's plenty of people on these boards doing even better than that. It's not that hard to believe at all.
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Old 26-09-2005, 03:53   #28
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Re: There is no such thing as Technical or Fundamental Anaysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by graemenash
20 pips a day is hardly earth-shattering. There's plenty of people on these boards doing even better than that. It's not that hard to believe at all.

See calculation above before posting !!!
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Old 26-09-2005, 04:07   #29
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Re: There is no such thing as Technical or Fundamental Anaysis

aw

I presume your calculation assumes people are going to end up trading 100's of lots per trade which in the normal course of events will generally not happen Graham is right if you read his blog he averages probably 30-60 pips per day I tend to average 20-40 pips per day as he says there are plenty of people averaging similar amounts on the boards.

Even if you say people exagerate only average 10 pips per day in the long term according to your calculations they will all be billi as well.

You don't account for human nature even though my average is say 30 pips a day I currently trade at £10 per pip I know I will probably never trade at more than £100 per pip.
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Old 26-09-2005, 04:08   #30
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Re: There is no such thing as Technical or Fundamental Anaysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by awcapital
See calculation above before posting !!!

Why? It doesn't appear to invalidate my previous post.
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Old 26-09-2005, 04:47   #31
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Re: There is no such thing as Technical or Fundamental Anaysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by rollingstone
aw

I presume your calculation assumes people are going to end up trading 100's of lots per trade which in the normal course of events will generally not happen Graham is right if you read his blog he averages probably 30-60 pips per day I tend to average 20-40 pips per day as he says there are plenty of people averaging similar amounts on the boards.

Even if you say people exagerate only average 10 pips per day in the long term according to your calculations they will all be billi as well.

You don't account for human nature even though my average is say 30 pips a day I currently trade at £10 per pip I know I will probably never trade at more than £100 per pip.

Let me clarify with an example

Float/Captial = $100000
Risk Per Trade = 2% of capital per trade ($2000)
Average Stop Loss Size (for your system) = 30 pips
Average Position Size (Face Value) = 66667 (100:1 leverage)

Average Profit Per Day = 20 pips = $1333 = 1.33% return on capital

Trading Days = 5days * 50 Weeks = 250 Trading Days

Compounded Returns (all profits reinvested) = (1+1.33%)^250 = 2742%

So
Year 1 $100000 becomes $2742093
Year 2 $2742093 becomes $75mil
Year 3 $75mil becomes $2billion
(Of course there will be liquidity issues trading this amounts)

That's my definition of "averaging 20 pips per week". You might have a different definition. I guess return on capital might be a better measure of performance.

My 2 cents
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Old 26-09-2005, 05:37   #32
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Re: There is no such thing as Technical or Fundamental Anaysis

The calculation makes sense (although personally I would never trade over 10:1 leverage) but I still don't see your point.
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