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Originally Posted by rollingstone
aw
I presume your calculation assumes people are going to end up trading 100's of lots per trade which in the normal course of events will generally not happen Graham is right if you read his blog he averages probably 30-60 pips per day I tend to average 20-40 pips per day as he says there are plenty of people averaging similar amounts on the boards.
Even if you say people exagerate only average 10 pips per day in the long term according to your calculations they will all be billi as well.
You don't account for human nature even though my average is say 30 pips a day I currently trade at £10 per pip I know I will probably never trade at more than £100 per pip.
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Let me clarify with an example
Float/Captial = $100000
Risk Per Trade = 2% of capital per trade ($2000)
Average Stop Loss Size (for your system) = 30 pips
Average Position Size (Face Value) = 66667 (100:1 leverage)
Average Profit Per Day = 20 pips = $1333 = 1.33% return on capital
Trading Days = 5days * 50 Weeks = 250 Trading Days
Compounded Returns (all profits reinvested) = (1+1.33%)^250 = 2742%
So
Year 1 $100000 becomes $2742093
Year 2 $2742093 becomes $75mil
Year 3 $75mil becomes $2billion
(Of course there will be liquidity issues trading this amounts)
That's my definition of "averaging 20 pips per week". You might have a different definition. I guess return on capital might be a better measure of performance.
My 2 cents
