Today's NFP question

[MickMason]

Originally posted by dwt1020


Would you have place that trade...?????

Hi David, no I wouldn't/didn't, I was sidelined too scared of NFP and I kicked myself afterwards!

Hindsight is pretty useless in FX

Mick

[wooster]

i was brave (or mad) enough to straddle the announcement of the number and cleaned up......

when the chinese reduced their interest rates i was lucky enough to be short on gbp at the time and made about 90 pips.....i then rode the gbp back up for some more......why i didnt do it after the nfp effect had bottomed out ill never know........i think i was stunned by the $$ signs!!.......

does antbody know a free resource for the $ index chart?

thanks....

[bobnat]

Originally posted by dwt1020
Mick,

Would you have place that trade...?????

I almost never trade those recommendations as they s/l 's are usually 100 pips or more and they are rarely right. But Fridays recos were right on.... it's nice to know what some of the Banks are thinking...

It's available at www.mizuho-cb.co.uk. -> research


gl & gt

david

I've been getting a newsletter from Saxo Bank for over a year now. They called for the EUR to hit 1.32-33 back in Feb. Now it's true that they were on the mark when the rise began in 2003 but it had retraced over 400 points before they finally conceded that the move had ended. It seems to me that with all the people and companies providing analysis that you can always find someone that is correct, especially when you consider there are only three choices of up, down or flat.

Nat

[eternalfuture]

Nazenail,

The cause of that odd move was probably the traders suddenly realized something more important than payrolls, such as deficits. Reading financial news from Reuters which usually a compilation from several opinions from different analysts, is simply a waste of time and misleading. I don't blame Reuters, but those who were asked for their opinions. I bet if the dollar rally resumed until the closing hours, the headline would be: NFP saves the day!

But that was not the case.

This time the headline should've been: "It's the deficits, stupid!".

But then again, if that's the real deal, then we might as well see dollar weakness for another 5 years or even 10 years. Do you think such gigantic deficits could be healed within a year?

Don't worry, though. When the market starts to forget that deficits is a woe for the dollar, things will change. Just like when the NFP euphoria began in April until it faded sometime three months later and replaced by FOMC euphoria.

The point is, when a good news is as bad as a bad news, what could possibly save the dollar now?

We have trade data next week. IF, the reading is good but the dollar still sink, then I don't know what else could help the dollar.

I'm enthusiastic to see how the market will react to the trade data and how those opinion contributors will say about it.

Again, analyze the raw data, don't rely on financial news too much. It's toxic. Hazardous for your mind.



Cheers!

[MickMason]

Originally posted by eternalfuture


We have trade data next week. IF, the reading is good but the dollar still sink, then I don't know what else could help the dollar.

I think traders are looking towards another rate hike in December, but if next week's hike is already priced in with Eur at 1.30 it certainly doesn't look too promising! Maybe profit taking will help the dollar short term, oil at $25 (some chance!), or the capture of Osama!

Mick

[dwt1020]

Originally posted by bobnat


I've been getting a newsletter from Saxo Bank for over a year now. They called for the EUR to hit 1.32-33 back in Feb. Now it's true that they were on the mark when the rise began in 2003 but it had retraced over 400 points before they finally conceded that the move had ended. It seems to me that with all the people and companies providing analysis that you can always find someone that is correct, especially when you consider there are only three choices of up, down or flat.

Nat

I was getting and trying the Saxo letter bank when they were predicting eur at 32-33 in Feb. Now I only get it a couple times a month, and I don't know why. Oh well. It seems even the high dollar, highly trained, paid professionals have a hard time giving up a "bad trade"...

Now I only read this type analysis to keep me informed of calendar data and to get the BIG picture. I follow mulitple ones just do I don't one persons bias..

d

[bobnat]

dwt,

Yea, I do about the same now. It's helpful to know what everyone else is seeing as it helps me to see alternatives. I'm not a long term trend follower so avoiding bias helps me on an intra-day basis.

Nat

[eternalfuture]

Bear Stearns expected euro/usd at 1.35-1.40 sometime next year.
As for rate hike in December, for now I think it's almost in the bag. Even if the next payrolls will be softer, around 100k or so, the Fed may still tighten its policy. Just watch what the voting members say. I think the Fed's pretty determined to take the rates above 2%. Next week's hike is surely already discounted sometime two months ago.

The capture of Osama may not mean much, Mick. The capture of Saddam was a perfect example of it. If you think the capture Osama will end the conflict in Iraq and the other parts of the world, think again. Because it will be the reverse. It will intensify the degree of conflicts.