I would ignore NFP all together as I have a working system, good money management, good risk control and a pretty decent looking equity curve...if I were to try and capitalize on NFP, it would imply that I do not have faith in my trading skills at all and deem it necessary to take on HUGE risk and gamble to PERHAPS make a few pippies...
Personally I think an event like this is like the "forbidden apple" , it sure as hell looks damn fine, but ....
Two days of track record! That's just pathetic. James, what a joke you are...:
Seems sort of personal to me. But no matter. Let's let it rest. Back to the subject matter. I think you are dead right Novice, and hence my little experiment with large stops, supplemented with options. Once thing is for sure - a directional move normally begins when the dust has settled, albeit a day or two later sometimes.
1. Buy euro now at market (1.2950) with 150 pip stop loss at 1.2800, using 2x leverage.
2. Buy a "one touch " (OT) option which pays 300 pips if the market touches 1.2800 before Friday next week, cost is 137 pips
3. Buy a "double touch" (DT) option which pays 300 pips if the euro touches 1.2700 or 1.3200 before Friday next week, cost 116 pips
So if the euro rises to 1.3200, we make 250 pipsx2 on the trade plus 300 pips for the DT option. The cost has been 253 pips for the two options. Net result +550 pips
If the euro falls to 1.2800, we lose 150 pipsx2 on the trade and make 300 pips on the OT option. The cost of the OT option has been 137 pips. Net result -137 pips
If the euro falls further to 1.2700, we make 300 pips on the DT option. The cost of the DT option is 116 pips. Net result +184 pips.
What if EUR/USD falls to 1.2805 and then trades between 1.2805 to 1.2865 before the options expire, and after they do takes a further plunge to 1.2600?
Sorry, I posted the above before I read that ForexTractor had already described the scenario I talked about.
Good to see wise people like novice still around to counter these guys pumping exotic options.
We see that happening every other day when market manipulators protect vital option-related targets.
So it is very likely they will not let your options yield anything.
As for the sky falling or pigs flying, I would leave the answer to your own imagination.
...then again you could go down the local casino and have a game of craps and leave everyone else to sweat over NFP! Cool drinks served by dolly wautresses, and probably a better chance of making a few bucks.....definitely more fun anyways
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Re: Trading The NFP's
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