Trend Reversal Prediction

[vsampier]

FXHolic,

I agree with your assessment. Based upon certain timing factors, and chart indications (not indicators - but chart indications), I believe EUR is in a Mid-term correction to the recent upthrust which peaked on 4/27.

Timing and chart indications suggest current correction should last at least through 5/26-5/31 period. At that point correction to the recent upthrust may not have fully completed in which case it will continue until 7/13-7/18 period.

On the other hand, if correction completes during 5/26-5/31 period, then upthrust will resume at least until 7/13-7/18 period.

These mentioned time periods are key periods.

Let's see what happens - time will reveal if this analysis is correct.

[FXHolic]

Hello vsampier,

Thanks for you ananlysis, can you plz tell me what your analysis is based on? Is it Elliot Wave? What u mean by periods that you mentioned and what are their actual values?

Thanks.

[vsampier]

Hello FXHolic,

No I don't use Elliott Wave. Unlike other folks who post forecasts on moneytec based upon certain Price targets and Levels, the techniques that I use are focused more so on Time targets and Levels.

So, while I may not be able to forecast exactly at what price levels a trend or correction may reverse (perhaps things like Fib + S/R levels will give you this information), I probably do have a good idea about as to when (time periods) these reversals may occurr.

I don't use any indicators. I don't use things like Delta, Measured Moves, Chart Patterns, Candlestick formations, etc. - None of these.

I use 2 Important techniques

I use a certain kind of Charting technique, that factors price information with time information, and displays that in a chart format - only, *not* your everyday regular Bar or Candlestick or Renko or 3Line Break type of charts.

And more importantly, over the past 5 years, in doing my own research, I 'think' that I have discovered something that gives me those specific dates and time periods.

Now, I like everyone in this Forex game is only a mere mortal, so while I believe that through my research these past 5 years, that I have something now that appears, at least to me, to give me that timing edge, I don't at all say that it is a holy grail or is perfect.

While these timing factors do give me specific dates, the trick for me as human, is to correctly determine if either the main trend or the correction that the EUR happens to be in at that time will either continue or reverse during those key time periods. For example, we just completed one of those key time periods 4/27-5/1, that is why I believe 4/27 was the top (for now) of the recent upthrust. Right now I have some thoughts, that help me make those decisions. Also the charting technique that I mentioned, ultimately confirms if a reversal does take place at those key time periods.

So in summary, I use the Time indications to put me on alert to be on the lookout for a change ath these key dates, and I use a special Charting technique to help dtermine if those changes are happening.

Like I said, we are all human and humble - so let's see if both your analysis and my analysis (both reached through different methods) turn out to be the truth.

[FXHolic]

vsampier thanks for your detailed reply, very much appreciated.

[FXHolic]

Having reached a major support of 21WMA by EURUSD and GBPUSD on weekly charts. I guess, they are now poised to rise again to the last peak to make double top, before falling further ... let's C.

[vsampier]

Referring to my earlier posts, we are are now leaving one of the key time periods (5/27-6/1) - The next key time period occurrs (7/13-7/18), and the next key time period beyond that occurrs (8/13-8/16), an then the next one occurrs (9/3-9/5).

These key time periods are called 'exchange points'.

In my analysis, I refer to the time between any two 'exchange points' as an 'epoch'. Note: actually the 6/1 - 7/18 contains 2 epochs - this is a special case, for reasons I won't go into, in this post.

Now, as I said in my earlier posts, these exchange points are the times to be 'on alert' for trend changes (impulses or corrections).

In an earlier post I said:

"Timing and chart indications suggest current correction should last at least through 5/26-5/31 period. At that point correction to the recent upthrust may not have fully completed in which case it will continue until 7/13-7/18 period. On the other hand, if correction completes during 5/26-5/31 period, then upthrust will resume at least until 7/13-7/18 period."

Here are two scenarios:

If the recent upthrust is to resume (as an impulse - ie: continuing as the dominant trend going forward) then I would expect that the current correction that we are in (starting on 4/27) *should* last for 3 epochs (refer to definition of 'epoch' above). Which means, if the main trend UP is to continue, I would expect the current correction to continue up through the 7/18 exchange point period. Why 3 epochs? well that is the part of my analysis technique that I have been developing, and I won't go into all of those details here in this post.

Now, if the recent upthrust, is in fact ended or ending (ie: the EUR is about to embark on a major trend change in direction DOWN), then this correction may only last 1 epoch (ending tomorrow 6/1), which would be followed by a short upthrust lasting for 2 epochs (ending on the 7/18 period exchage point).
At that point, the main trend will have changed, and a major trend DOWN for the EUR will have been started.

FXHolic - this 2nd scenario, is in line with your latest projections.

Either case, it appears that by the (7/13-7/18) exchange point, the EUR will either resume its UP trend, or a major trend reversal will have started in the DOWN direction.

Right now, I am leaning toward the 2nd scenario - which again agrees with FXHolic's latest projections.

Let's see what happens next - 'Time will always reveal the truth'.

[FXHolic]

Thanks for the great analysis!

[vsampier]

For those who may interested, here are some more details of my Timing Analysis methodology:

(Refer to my earlier posts in this thread for additional info.)

'Exchange points' are the periods when changes in trend *may* occur ( ie: impulses changing to corrections, or corrections changing to impulses).

Not every 'Exchange point' will result in a change in trend, however every change in trend *will* occur during an 'Exchange point'.

'Exchange points' are the boundaries between time periods called 'Epochs'.

The duration of the Lifecycle of any Trend, Countertrend, Swing or Wave, (your choice of nomenclature), consists of a precise number of 'Epochs', and in a precise order, according to a strict set of rules.

A precise number of 'Epochs' grouped together is called a 'Frame'.

Within every 'Frame' there are always 2 'Phantom Exchange points'. In fact from my last post, I mention that the 6/1-7/12 time period contains 2 'Epochs'. This is because one of the 'Phantom Exchange points' occurs during that time period, dividing that time period into two seperate 'Epochs'.

The duration, and the intervals at which 'Exchange points' occur, are non-linear. This means that both the length of, and the cycle that they occur, are not fixed. Likewise, the length of 'Epochs', and the cycle that they occur, are also not fixed.

These 'Exchange points', are *not* derived from either cyclic analysis, Fib time ratios, Fib day/bar counts, Lucas day/bar counts, Lunar phases/Delta, etc., not to say, that there may be occasions when 'Exchange point' dates and dates derived from one of these other methods may coincide, in which case, it is purely coincidental.

As I have said in my first post, the discovery of how to derive these 'Exchange point' dates, and their neighboring 'Epochs', has been a result of my research for the past 5+ years.

I am not yet the master of my discovery and research, and continue to refine my understanding and application of the phenomenon that this method has shown me.

Until I become the master of my discovery and research, and understand all, I remain mortal and humble.