Trend Reversal Prediction

[vsampier]

Yesterday 6/8, appears to have modified Scenario 2, described in Post #14 above.

At this point, timing indications point to the current correction, which started on 4/27 for the EUR, to now continue at least through 6/21-6/22 which is the next 'Phantom exchange point'. Recall in Post #14, I decribe the fact that the time period 6/1-7/18 actually contains 2 epochs, and in Post #16, I descibe what a 'Phantom exchange point' is.

Scenario #2 is now modified as follows: I expect the current correction to continue at least until 6/21-6/22, (lasting for 2 epochs -> 4/27-6/21). Then I expect a *brief* resumption of the uptrend until the 7/13-7/18 Exchange point, (lasting for 1 epoch). At that point, (7/13-718), I expect the downtrend for EUR to resume.

So in summary, I am still projecting the same outcome by the 7/13-7/18 Exhange point, just the interim swing point, was changed from 6/1 to 6/21-6/22, still occurring within the same 3 Epoch window (4/27-7/18).

I would also be interested to hear FXHolic's latest projections, as both our recent projections (arrived at through different analysis techniques), seem to point to similar outcomes.

[FXHolic]

Hi vsampier,

I trade on technical grounds, looking at cable, though it has broken one of the major supports but the move was halted at the lower trend line, joining 6 lows on daily chart but the momentum of the current move surely looks promising for the breakout. If it does break out and stays below the trend line, sure targets would be 1.9400 and then 1.9200.

We traders have no control on the market, at best we can only build our prophecies based on technical/fundamental grounds, God knows better where the market will go next.


Wish you the best!

[vsampier]

Hello FXHolic,

As always, thanks for your input and commentary on Cable. As you can see, I am still trying to fine-tune and master my Time analysis techniques.

You are right, as (mortal) traders, we can only strive to better understand the Laws that govern market movements, just like our predecessors such as Galileo, Einstein, and Mr. Gann tried to do.

With that said, this trader watches how EUR will 'obey' the Law, next.

[vsampier]

Update on EUR/USD:

In my earlier post # 17, I projected that the current correction (downtrend) should last until 6/21-6/22 Phantom Exchange Point.

However, that swing occured earlier, on 6/13, and now we are in a brief resumption of the uptrend. The miscalculation in the timing of this Phantom Exchange Point, was attributed purely to my own human error. Phantom Exchange Points are more difficult to identify, than are normal Exchange Points, because the data that are used to identify these Phantom Exchange Points are somewhat 'hidden' - thus the term 'Phantom' Exchange Point. Luckily, within every 'Frame' there are always *only 2* 'Phantom Exchange Points'. All other Non-Phantom Exchang Points are derived from 'visible' data.

At this point, I am expecting this current swing to last for 1 Epoch, which will last until the 7/13-7/18 Exchange Point.

Let's see what happens to EUR/USD by 7/13.

[vsampier]

For those who are interested -
and have read my earlier posts in this thread -

I am attaching a sample copy of the type of 'Chart' that I use, in my analysis. I call this type of 'Chart' an 'Exotorus Chart'. The 'Exotorus Chart' is the result of my 5+ years of research - and it is still an ongoing work in progress.

You will see that the attached 'Exotorus Chart' displays the various 'Exchange Points', 'Phantom Exchange Points' and associated 'Epochs'. The 'Chart' also show some additional elements, that I have not mentioned in my previous posts.

Obviously, the attached 'Exotorus Chart' will be useless unless one knows how to read and interpret the 'Chart', but it should give an idea as to the type of "Indicator" and 'Chart' that I use, instead of the ""Usual Indicators" and charts that most other people use.

As I have stated in previous posts, my analysis is based primarily upon Timing Factors, and to a lesser extent Price Levels.

Right now, I am projecting the current EUR uptrend swing to last through 7/13. I will also now project that the Price Level on 7/13 should peak somewhere in the area of 1.3753 - 1.3782, or so.

Let's see how these projections pan out.

[vsampier]

"Time is Most Important"

- as Mr. Gann had stated - Attached is a screen shot of an Exotorus Chart with some additional analysis details and highlights pertaining to the current
EUR/USD trend movement.

A regular Candlestick or Bar chart is really a Visual Representation of the
*Relationship* between Price and Time. What you see on the chart, is not
really the actual Price and Time Data, but the *Visual Relationship* between
Price and Time. Any Trend Lines or Fib Lines on that chart help to frame those
Relationships.

Likewise, with an Exotorus Chart, you are looking at a Visual (Textual)
Representation of the *Relationship* between Time and Market Time.
Yes, markets move according to a different 'Time Clock', than the time that
we measure things by. So, an Exotorus Chart helps one see how fast or slow
markets are moving *in relation to our traditional time clock*. The Exotorus
Chart does not address Price, since Time is Most Important. Also the Exotorus
Chart does not display the actual Time Data, but only the *relationship*
between Time and Market Time.

Much of this analysis technique builds upon concepts that Mr Gann spoke of,
or in fact, hid for himself.

Although, Elliott fans also would appreciate the concepts of 'precise
number of epochs, and in a precise sequence order', since it is similar to their
preset 5 wave and 3 wave structures. However, my analysis *does not* use
Elliott, or the concept of wave counts.

Everything Revolves Around Time, And Only Time.

[vsampier]

"Gearing Up To Trade"

If you want to try and visualize in your mind, the
relationship of Time and Market Time, then try to
picture this: (Refer to attached picture)

Imagine a Gold Metalic Gear Wheel, with a fixed number
of 'teeth'- let's say it has 365 Teeth (Gear B) and it
is rotating. The 'teeth' on this gear are positioned
at linear fixed distances to each other around
the gear wheel. The width of these 'teeth are
also fixed and uniform around the gear wheel.
This gear represents our Time clock.

Now imagine a 2nd Gear with a fewer number of fixed 'teeth'-,
let's say it has 40 Teeth as an example (Gear A), and it is
also rotating. The 'teeth' on this 2nd gear occur at varying
non-linear distances around the gear wheel, and the width
of these teeth will also vary. The 'teeth' on this 2nd gear wheel
are our Exchange Points, and the spaces between the 'teeth' are
our Epochs. We will come back to this 2nd gear, in a moment.

Now hold those 2 pictures in your mind, a moment, and add this
to the picture set:

Picture a common brass house key that you need to make a copy of.
Usually you bring the original key to a hardware store and the
Locksmith will select the correct size metal key blank, and put
it and your original key in a key cutting machine. The machine
will then proceed to replicate the unique pattern of notches or
'teeth' that the original key has, cut into the new key blank.
That pattern - or sequence of 'teeth' on the key makes it unique
to the specific lock that it will open. These teeth are usually
positioned in some non-linear fashion.

Now let's return to that 2nd Gear wheel. Each market has a unique
pattern of 'teeth' that it will use on the gear wheel. So even
though this 2nd gear *wheel* may have a fixed number of 40 'teeth',
the EUR/USD market's individual Swings, Waves, Trends etc., will
start and end on particular teeth on that wheel. For example, lets
say the EUR/USD uptrend ends on the 6th 'tooth' on this gear wheel,
and then the ensuing downtrend may end on the 23rd 'tooth' on this
gear wheel, and so on and so on. This means that every market,
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, IBM stock, Soybeans, etc. have
their own unique pattern of which teeth around this 2nd gear wheel
are the places that the individual swings for this market start and stop.
Each market 'overlays' its unique sequence of Exchange Points and Epochs
on top of this 2nd gear wheel. Thereofore each market has it's own
Market Time (pattern + sequence of specific Exchange Points and Epochs
where trend reversals occur). This is why, not all Exhange points will
produce trend reversals. It depends on the unique overlay pattern of the
Market you are analysing.

The Exotorus Chart shows the Relationship between our Time (Gear B) and Market Time (sequence pattern overlayed ontop of Gear A). Once the particular sequenceor pattern for a specific Market is known, it can be used along with the Exchange Points and Epochs to project future trend reversals and swings.

The 'crown jewels' of this technique, are the ability to identify the Exchange Points (teeth), and to identify the unique number and sequence of Epochs for each swing. Once this is known, the series perpetually repeats or rotates. I have discovered how to identify these Non-Linear Exchange Points (teeth) and Epochs, on this 2nd gear wheel.

As a mortal, the difficult part to all of this is to identify the sequence of Exchange Points and Epochs that the EUR/USD is riding across. Also, with Phantom Exchange Points, identifying reversals becomes slighly more difficult. This is where human error can come into play. That is why I still remain humble, as I still try to continue my research, and master this 'Law of Vibration'.

[vsampier]

"Mr. Gann, Mr. Elliott and Mr. James Bond 007
at a Cocktail Party"


It is clear that both Mr. Gann and Mr. Elliott understood
the natural laws of motion and rotation that describe the
cycles of financial markets, although be it from slightly
different points of view. Neither one of these two gentelmen's
approaches or tools are neither better nor worse than the other
gentleman's approach. They both were talking about the same things.

Based upon my research, I have a personal observation on how
Elliott Wave analysis compares to the technique of using
Exchange Points, Epochs, Time and Market Time that I have described.

Elliotticians understand very well the concept that market cycles
repeat in fixed units. They usually refer to these units as
either Impulsive 5-Wave Structures or 3-Wave Corrective Structures,
with a couple of related variations thrown in.

Many times, Elliott Wave Analysis will will end up generating
multiple Alternate Wave Counts. This usually happens when it appears
that the either a 5-Wave or 3-Wave Structure has completed, however
the current trends still continue, forcing a re-evaluation and re-numbering
of Waves within the structure.

Other times, Elliott Wave Analysis will be impressively spot on the mark.

In Elliott Wave as well as my apporoach to analysis, we are seeking to
map the rotational Price Action Motion to some 'Landmarks', so that we
can somehow gauge the progress of this rotational motion, in order
to project when the next change will happen.

Elliott uses the 5 or 3 Wave *Price-Action* itself as it's 'Landmark' units.

Mr. Gann's and my approach, on the other hand use certain *Time Demarcations* as our 'Landmark' units, to measure by.

Sometimes an Impulsive Trend may continue even though 5 Waves have completed.

What this means is that if you are using the Price Action itself (5 and 3 Waves), as your 'Landmark' measuring units, and the cycle that you happen to be in generates more (or less) than 5 or 3 Waves, then you will most likely get a bit 'lost' in your Wave Count bearings.

However, by using Time Demarcations (Market Time), as your measuring 'Landmark' units, you are not relying on a fixed set of *Price ACtion* Waves to determine your cycle boundaries.

Now don't get me wrong, I think that Elliott Analysis can be deadly accurate at times- these are just some of the differences that I observe.

Now let's join that cocktail party, shall we...

Certainly Mr. Gann and Mr. Elliott knew that markets moved in a Spiraling, Rotational fashion, somewhat like a Vortex or Torus Structure.

After spending the evening drinking Martini's with Mr. Gann and Mr. Elliott, we
should not be surprised to hear Mr. James Bond 007 order his last Martini with
"Stirred, Not Shaken".